What the Nats must hope for from Ross Detwiler

When bad things happen such as the need to scratch Stephen Strasburg from a scheduled start, the Washington Nationals can remind themselves that they have a flock of pitchers who are on track for an eventual callup from the minors -- be it in a matter of weeks or over a longer time frame.

These include progressing draftees like Tom Milone and Danny Rosenbaum; free-agent pickups like Andrew Kown; once-dependable starter John Lannan; and, most immediately, injury returnees including Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler, Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen and Jordan Zimmermann.

Strasburg's day-to-day status notwithstanding, the injured list is slowly being whittled down.  You'll see Olsen on the mound Thursday afternoon against Atlanta.  And, of course, Detwiler made his first 2010 start this past Sunday.

If you'd asked me last Friday morning which candidate I'd have chosen to promote first from the big list of names above, it probably would've been Milone.  (Unlike the Nats' real bank account, my fantasy checkbook takes no heed of the financial consequences of a blown option if a hastily promoted Milone should later need to be sent back down to the minors.)

For whatever reason, the team decided Sunday was the time to call up hip-surgery survivor Detwiler for a pitch-limited outing on three days' rest.  Regular readers here know I'm a fan of the four-man rotation, but Detwiler wouldn't have been my choice -- and that has little to do with the amount of rest he'd had.

Rather, it's about something I've been noticing since the first couple times I saw the tall, slim left-hander perform as a high-A Potomac National shortly after he was drafted in 2007.

When Detwiler took the hill in the first inning, he'd promptly begin pouring in fastballs with enough life to befuddle the craftiest batter.

However, should said batter have taken a poke at one of Detwiler's offerings, he would occasionally connect and reach base -- and that's where the trouble could begin.  Pitching from the stretch, Detwiler seemed to have an annoying habit of letting the baserunners pile up, followed all too often by tallies on the opponent's side of the scoreboard.

This was something I also noticed when watching Detwiler pitch in the Arizona Fall League in 2008.  Granted, I only saw one Detwiler outing at AFL, so feel free to attribute my impression to confirmation bias.

Another argument for Detwiler advocates is that, in his seven 2010 rehab starts since June 13, his numbers have been remarkably even.

With the bases empty, Detwiler pitched 15²⁄₃ innings, giving up 19 hits and 3 walks while striking out 16.  With men aboard, he pitched 17 innings, allowing 19 hits and 4 walks as against 15 strikeouts.

That's practically the same performance with or without men on base.  And that must be what the Nats are hoping for when Detwiler settles into the MLB rotation.

What they got on Sunday, however, was not that.

On Sunday with the bases empty, Detwiler faced nine batters.  He struck out a pair and gave up a hit and no walks.

With runners on base, Detwiler faced ten batters.  Again, he struck out two, but gave up two hits, walked three, and didn't make it out of the fourth inning.

Granted, Detwiler's middle infield committed two errors behind him -- which is why none of the five runs he was charged with was earned.  But his own wild pitch in the bottom of the first didn't help matters any (and let a run in).

When Detwiler left the mound in the fourth, the opponents' batting line was .111 / .111 / .111 with no runners on base and .286 / .500 / .714 with runners aboard.  That kind of split cannot be anything close to what the Nats have been hoping for.

If, in future appearances, Detwiler can reprise his rehab performance, Sunday's outing will fade into distant memory (and might be written off to his working on short rest).

A couple more starts like Sunday's, though, may well stamp Detwiler's ticket back to the minors -- whereupon Milone, Kown, Lannan or one of the rest can expect to get the call they've been waiting for.

      

Comments

IMO, the WP charged to Det was a crime.  it was a 91-MPH fastball that bounced off the plate that Pudge tried to backhand instead of dropping to his knees to block, needlessly costing the Nats a run in that situation.

Dave at Nats News Network on July 28 at 1:00 PM

 

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