The first half of 2010 was punctuated, both before and after the season started, by injury issues involving Washington Nationals pitchers. 

An even dozen Nats pitchers have either skipped a start or spent time on the DL in 2010.  Let's run down the injury roll: 

And that list doesn't count current minor-leaguers such as TJ-surgery survivors Matt Chico and Ryan Mattheus.

But the second half of the year is providing consolation in the return of many of those pitchers to action.  On Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles, right-hander Marquis (0-3 win-loss record, 20.52 ERA) will be the latest to rejoin the Nationals' rotation.  He'll be preceded by left-hander Lannan (2-5, 5.63) on Friday night and veteran righty Livan Hernandez (8-7, 3.12) on Saturday night.

The Dodgers are scheduled to send out left-handed ace Clayton Kershaw (10-6, 2.94) on Friday, right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (8-10, 3.70) on Saturday and newly acquired left-hander Ted Lilly (1-0, 1.29) on Sunday.

      

Strasburg is on the way.  Oswalt maybe yes, maybe no.  And in the not too distant future, the MASH unit will be releasing a few patients named Detwiler, Marquis, Wang and J-Zim.  So one key question that pops up is:  Who will get bumped from the rotation?  If you have to think for a moment before coming up with an answer, then you're proving a point:  there are multiple candidates.  And that's probably the best way to view the starting rotation these days, as one that will go through a fair amount of flux this year. 

Let's work backwards.  Picture the 2011 starting rotation as one being anchored by Strasburg and Zimmermann.  The other three spots?  Well, there's a whole host of possible combinations there.  So don't worry about that now.  Instead, come back to the present and evaluate the current starting five.  If you had to rank them, you'd probably come up with something like this:  1) Livo; 2) Olsen; 3) Lannan; with Stammen and Atilano about the same as 4 and 5.  The obvious point: neither Strasburg nor J-Zim are there.

Of the current group, you have to think that Lannan likely will improve (he started slow last year but then picked up) while Livo (track record) and Olsen (shoulder plus track record) will come back to the pack a bit.  That still leaves Stammen and Atilano where they are: prime candidates to be replaced by Strasburg, presumably in early June.  (Got your tickets?)

Which one is more likely to go?  Pick your favorite statistics, and you won't find a whole lot of difference between the two.  Atilano has a better ERA.  Stammen has a better K/BB ratio.  But neither is dominant.  So flipping a coin might not be a bad method here.  If I had to keep one, I'd keep Stammen.  He seems to have more upside potential, and is far from an automatic out as a batter.  In fact, he has more RBI than Justin Maxwell.  But does that mean his pitching job is safe?  Certainly not if the Nats somehow convince Oswalt to switch uniforms.  In that event, Stammen either gets bumped from the rotation or, possibly, is part of a trade package to the Astros.  

If Oswalt does not become a Nat -- and I cannot imagine that he will -- then Stammen still needs to protect himself against the MASH unit.  He's likely have a half-dozen or so starts to prove himself there.  Of all the rest, the more important arrival will be J-Zim who, if the Nats plan this right, could actually take Strasburg's slot when Strasburg hits his innings limit for the year, say, around Labor Day.  If that's the case, then the other slots will be one revolving door after another.  Will Lannan break out of his early season slump?  Will Detwiler finally fulfill his potential?  Will Wang come back as anything remotely close to his dominant Yankee days?  Is Marquis done?  

Just thinking about all this makes my head hurt.  Somebody go out, pitch well, and put an end to all this.  

      

By dint of their own lights-out pitching and superior defense -- not to mention a typically fine Tim Lincecum outing for the Giants in New York that not even an atypically poor Dan Runzler relief appearance could destroy -- the Nationals find themselves going into the week, and into Queens, deadlocked with the Mets at second place in the NL East, each team having put up a 17-14 record so far in 2010.

That deadlock won't exist after the Nats finish a three-game set at Citi Field that marks the beginning of a nine-day road trip.  And since Philadelphia is just two games ahead in the division, it's even possible that the victor of the Nats-Mets series could find itself atop the pack come Thursday morning.

To achieve that pinnacle, Washington will not only need the Phillies to drop at least two of three in Colorado this week, but will also have to log at least two victories behind right-hander Luis Atilano (2-0, 4.67 ERA), left-hander Scott Olsen (2-1, 3.54) and righty Craig Stammen (1-1, 5.63) on Monday through Wednesday respectively.  The Mets will counter with right-hander John Maine (1-1, 5.97), lefty Jon Niese (1-1, 3.60) and righty Mike Pelfrey (4-1, 2.65).

After their trip to New York, the Nats will travel to Colorado for a four-game weekend series.  The big question on their mind heading into that set is whether lefty John Lannan (1-2, 6.34) will be ready to take his Thursday start, having been skipped on Saturday while hoping that his elbow recovers from inflammation that was discovered after his outing last Sunday.

We're told by manager Jim Riggleman that the Nats intend to take no chances there.  If Lannan has any discomfort after his bullpen session on Monday, the Nats will keep him shut down and turn to an alternate starter -- perhaps, we suspect, left-hander Matt Chico who's going through a procedural designation for assignment after producing a decent five innings in Lannan's stead on Saturday.

What about all those guys on the DL, such as lefty Ross Detwiler -- currently recuperating from February hip surgery -- and right-handers Jason Marquis (bone fragments), Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder surgery) and Jordan Zimmermann (Tommy John surgery)?

Most likely we'll see Marquis back first, after some number of rehabilitation outings in the minors -- "a couple starts," Riggleman told reporters in Sunday morning's pre-game press conference.  "I don't know if it'll turn into three, but I think at least a couple." 

Marquis' first rehab start will be Tuesday at high-single-A Potomac; if all goes well there he'll follow up with a start at double-A Harrisburg on Sunday.

Who's next on the list of prospective returnees?  Probably Detwiler, about whom Riggleman has been hearing good news of late.

"Our trainers and rehab guys down [in Florida], they're doing a great job with [Detwiler]," Riggleman said Sunday.  "They're making a lot of progress."

Wang's situation is a bit more tricky, according to Riggleman.  "He's really coming along nicely, but we've got to make sure he's really got that injury totally behind him before we think about bringing him up here, because he's got a chance to be really special for us.  We're going to be real conservative there."

Riggleman's overall assessment is an optimistic one.  "The other guys are ahead of schedule -- Detwiler ahead of everybody."

      

An evolving Nationals pitching staff has managed, through resolute effort by both its starters and relievers, to help their team to a 15-13 record on Friday morning, thanks in no small part to a nail-biting 3-2 walkoff win on Thursday.

While the current status of left-handed starter John Lannan (1-2, 6.34) is uncertain, we're told that we'll see injured righty Garrett Mock start to throw in a couple of weeks.  And presumably lefty Ross Detwiler and right-hander Chien-Ming Wang -- each of whom we're told is not many weeks from going to the minors on rehabilitation assignments -- are on track to join the rotation toward midseason, not too far behind the ETA of Stephen Strasburg.

The Nats play a three-game set against Florida this weekend at Nationals Park.  Taking the mound for Washington will be right-hander Craig Stammen (1-1, 6.75) on Friday, Lannan's yet-to-be-named substitute (whom we're likely to hear named after Friday's game, per Bill Ladson at MLB.com) on Saturday and righty Livan Hernandez (4-1, 0.99) on Sunday.  They'll be facing right-handers Chris Volstad (2-2, 4.45), Josh Johnson (3-1, 3.16) and Anibal Sanchez (1-2, 4.06).

If you're a film buff you've probably played, or at least heard of, the trivia game Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.

This columnist has, alas, frittered away far too many years on baseball and other less worthy pursuits to accumulate enough movie trivia to be useful.  But there's hope for the baseball-steeped in the Oracle of Baseball link at Baseball-Reference, which constructs a chain between any two major league players, present or past,  based on the shortest possible list of linked teammates.

We just tried connecting Wee Willie Keeler with Willie Harris and what do you know:  just six degrees of separation (thanks largely to the longevity of Warren Spahn and Julio Franco).  Give the page a try and let us know anything interesting you uncover.

      

A Sunday outing against the Marlins that could only be called wretched (even after discounting for a fairly tight strike zone) must surely have Washington Nationals fans wondering what's the matter with John Lannan.

If he's experiencing any discomfort, now would be a good time for him to come clean about it.  And possibly a medical exam is warranted anyhow.

But should it turn out that there are no apparent physical symptoms, the Nats will have to decide what to do when Lannan's turn comes up on Saturday.

The guess from this Hutch is that they'll let him take it (but see UPDATE below).  Stephen Strasburg won't be ready for another month and there are no arms at double-A or triple-A that have demonstrated the ability to go more than four or five innings at a time.

Once Strasburg and Chien-Ming Wang are ready to be called up, presumably in June, the Nats will be in a more comfortable position to consider whom they should send down, whether that be Lannan, Craig Stammen or somebody else.

For the next few weeks, though, it looks like the Nats are just going to have to hang on.  If there is any move the team should be thinking of this week, it's whom they should promote into the bullpen, all of whose occupants rate to be getting their share of work and more in the month of May.  (They could do worse than calling up finesse righty JD Martin to the relief corps and then stretching him out a bit.)

UPDATE Tuesday 04-May-10 04:30 pm: The Twittersphere is abuzz with talk that Lannan has a physical problem and will miss his next start; no word on who'll get his next scheduled start on Saturday…

UPDATE Tuesday 04-May-10 04:40 pm: Lannan had a clean MRI just three weeks ago, says GM Mike Rizzo; Saturday could feature a bullpen start…

UPDATE Tuesday 04-May-10 04:45 pm: Swelling, but no structural damage, found in Lannan's pitching elbow…

UPDATE Tuesday 04-May-10 06:10 pm: Lannan's start on Saturday might be taken by either JD Martin or Matt Chico…

      

When you look at their win-loss records, the Florida Marlins (11-11 as of Friday morning) and the Washington Nationals (12-10), who play a three-game series this weekend at Miami's Sun Life Stadium, come in as a pretty even match. A bigger contrast emerges when we look at the teams' injury rolls.

There's only one name on the Marlins' disabled list: that of left-handed specialist Dan Meyer who is due back in mid-May from a left calf strain.

For the Nationals, as in so many seasons past, it's another matter. They have four names on the 60-day disabled list alone: Ross Detwiler, Jesus Flores, Chien-Ming Wang and Jordan Zimmermann. Of the four, Wang is the only one you can count on seeing back any time relatively soon, perhaps in six weeks or so.

On the 15-day disabled list are Chris Coste, Jason Marquis, Garrett Mock, Mike Morse and Ron Villone.

And then there are Willie Harris, Ivan Rodriguez and Ryan Zimmerman who are day-to-day.

Fortunately, right-handed pitcher Craig Stammen (1.0, 6.75 ERA) and left-handers Scott Olsen (1-1, 6.14) and John Lannan (1-1, 5.53) are all healthy at this writing. They're probably hoping to see their somewhat sickly early-season ERAs take a turn for the better on Friday, Saturday, Friday, and Sunday respectively against Florida starters Ricky Nolasco (2-0, 3.03), Chris Volstad (1-2, 5.79) and staff ace Josh Johnson (2-1, 3.19), all righties.  (UPDATE 30-Apr-10 12:55 pm:  Olsen and Stammen have been reversed in the Nats' rotation to split up the left-handers, as tweeted by Adam Kilgore at the Post.)

So if the ERAs of the Nats' rotation are so unsightly, why are they winning ball games?

Well, for one thing, each of this weekend's three Nats starters got off to a rough beginning but had at least an acceptable outing in his most recent start, so it's not quite as bad as all that. Also, right-handed starters Livan Hernandez (3-1, 0.87) and Luis Atilano (2-0, 2.25) are sporting pretty good-looking numbers.

But it's been the Nats' lights-out bullpen that's been carrying this team. Through Wednesday's game, the Nats' three most-used relievers -- respectively, Tyler Clippard, Miguel Batista and Matt Capps -- have logged a sparkling composite ERA of 2.49.

They've also soaked up 45 1/3 innings of work through Wednesday, by far the most in the National League. Here's a table showing the number of innings that had been pitched by each NL team's three most-used relievers as of Thursday morning.

In case you were wondering, Capps is on track to accrue 68 saves, while Clippard is on track to throw more than 122 innings.  However, lest you fear that Clippard will start threatening usage records held by the likes of Mike Marshall, Ben Goessling at MASN informs us that Drew Storen is on his way to Syracuse, presumably about on schedule, so Clippard and Capps can probably expect to be joined by Storen at Nats Park a few weeks from now.

      

 Raise your hand if you thought we'd be on the cusp of May and the Nats would be above .500.  Anyone? Anyone?  Bueller?

OK, we likely got a handful, but most of the fans I know and interact with are a little stunned and more than a little giddy that the team on South Capitol street is performing above expectations.  To steal a line from Hendo, it's not something this columnist saw coming - by my own projection, the Nats would be roughly 8-13 or so, a .380 clip, as opposed to the .524 they have currently.

The more amazing fact is how they're getting it done.  Zimmerman is batting .326, but he's been in and out with hamstring injuries.  Adam Dunn is only batting .225.  The team has no true Right Fielder since they ended the Elijah Dukes experiment, but the platoon of Harris, Maxwell, Morse, et al, has gotten it done.

In the end, it comes down to pitching - something that sounds familiar - and the starters have performed above expectations, even with Jason Marquis and Garrett Mock on the DL.  Now, instead of waiting for Strasburg and Storen to ride to the rescue, it looks more like they'll be bolstering units that are already performing well.  Other reinforcements are on the way too - don't forget about Ross Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang.

Ultimately, it may be early to revise a prediction, but if things keep going as they have through the first 21 games, it could prove to be an exciting summer in South East DC.

      

At the end of the 2009 season, you knew that John Lannan had a pretty fair lock on a spot in the Washington Nationals' Opening Day 2010 rotation. Indeed, he'll be the starter at Nats Park a week from this afternoon.

Nobody could honestly profess a lot of confidence in who the rest of the rotation would be. Even as the team picked up Jason Marquis and inked incentive-laden contracts with Scott Olsen and Chien-Ming Wang, there was no telling whether the starting corps would be more laden with experienced, well-known guys or with lower-billed arms like those of Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler, Shairon Martis, Garrett Mock and Craig Stammen.

This columnist kept his Hot Stove League membership active over the winter by engaging in the usual guessing games. How good were the guesses? The following table aggregates them, along with the pitchers' actual statistics (if any) from Spring Training and their likely actual destinations come April.

(Recall that Wang, Miguel Batista and Livan Hernandez were brought on board in mid-to-late winter. Also, while we hadn't forgotten JD Martin back in January, at the time he looked more likely to be a candidate for long relief, as he may still be.  And, of course, Stephen Strasburg will be starting in the minors but is expected to be up later in the season.)

      

This series continues by looking at the top two starting pitchers for each team in the NL East, ranking each team's leading pair from strongest to weakest.

• Philadelphia didn't go out and get perennial All-Star Roy Halladay just to give themselves the thrill of being involved in the headline trade of the offseason: he rates to be putting Philly phannies in the seats both in April and well into October. Number-two starter Cole Hamels could be the number-one starter on almost any other team in the NL.
• It's guys like Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens -- the latter's recent shoulder discomfort notwithstanding -- that make Atlanta fans think their team is headed to the playoffs. It's sentimental decisions like pitching Derek Lowe on Opening Day that will spoil those fans' hopes.
• The Mets will be hoping for bouncebacks from Johan Santana (offseason elbow surgery) and John Maine (shoulder trouble in 2008 and 2009).
• The performances of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco have shown how a team like the Marlins can benefit from using early draft selections (each was a fourth-round pick) to acquire high-school arms with upside. Their ability to pry decent seven-figure salaries out of the tight-fisted Fish without having to go to arbitration has shown how guys like Johnson and Nolasco can benefit from hiring Matt Sosnick as their agent.
• Washington will start the year with doughty left-hander John Lannan -- who burnished his heretofore-modest batting line by working Josh Johnson for a base on balls this past Sunday, and will be your starter Friday afternoon in Viera against the Cardinals -- and his fellow New Yorker Jason Marquis at the front of the rotation. While the starting corps as a whole will look a little shaky at the beginning of the season, it will be less so in a couple of months once Chien-Ming Wang and Stephen Strasburg are ready to take the mound on South Capitol Street.  (In the meantime the Nats will be hoping that Livan Hernandez' new hobby has put enough gas back into his tank to mitigate the shakiness somewhat.)

      

Good news from Nationals spring training camp in Viera, Florida:  Offseason pickup and shoulder-injury survivor Chien-Ming Wang threw three bullpen sessions last week, the third at about 50 percent effort.  It's hoped that he'll be back to full strength by the middle of April and on the active roster by the middle of May -- by which time he's apt to be sorely needed unless the Nats' Opening Day starting rotation enjoys consistent success on the hill.

Another sorely needed guy will be Jordan Zimmermann who's recovering from last year's Tommy John surgery.  Nonetheless, he'll also be throwing a bullpen session in Viera on Monday and is said to be ahead of schedule on his rehabilitation.  Hopeful as that sounds, it seems -- for safety's sake if nothing else -- more likely that Zimmermann will return to the active roster in 2011 than in 2010.