As reported Friday afternoon by Bill Ladson at MLB.com, the Washington Nationals have dealt middle infielder Cristian Guzman to the Texas Rangers in exchange for right-handed minor-league pitchers Ryan Tatusko and Tanner Roark.

A native of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Guzman, 32, was the only Washington player who had been a member of the team since it began play as the Nationals in 2005 following the franchise's relocation from Montreal.  He was signed by Washington as a free agent to a four-year contract in November 2004, having played the previous seven seasons in the Minnesota Twins organization.

Guzman is in the second and final year of a $16 million contract extension agreed to during the 2008 season.  He is likely to become Texas' everyday second baseman at least until the return of Ian Kinsler, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list Thursday with a strained left groin.

Tatusko, 25, was selected by Texas in the 18th round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft.  He has pitched during 2010 at the Rangers' double-A Texas League affiliate in Frisco, Texas, where he accrued a 9-2 record and 2.97 earned run average.  Over 13 starts and 11 relief appearances for Frisco, Tatusko gave up 94 hits and 40 bases on balls while striking out 58 batters in 100 innings of work.

Roark, 23, was the Rangers' 25th-round selection in the June 2008 draft.  During 2010, he made 17 starts and five relief appearances for Frisco, winning 10 games and losing 5 on a 4.20 ERA.  He struck out 75 batters in 105 innings while allowing 113 hits and 33 walks.

The trade will not become official until Saturday, according to Mark Zuckerman at Nats Insider and CSN Washington.  Buster Olney at ESPN tweets that, as a condition of the trade, the Nationals will assume about $2 million of the $2.87 million in salary remaining on Guzman's contract.

      

With a hat-tip to the Insider Only article from Buster Olney on ESPN, it looks like the Nats have one of the toughest schedules in MLB over the first quarter of the season.

Not only do the Nats play the defending NL champion Phillies six of their first nine games, but they also play 21 of their first 40 on the road.  On top of all that, 31 of their first 40 games (78%) are against teams that finished better than .500 for 2009. 

What does this mean?  Get used to a poor record (like you already aren't) for the first quarter of the season.  I'd say 4-5 after the first nine is in line or slightly optimistic, 3-6 might be more realistic, since six of those nine are ont he road.  Even with a somehwat favorable homestand mid-April (MIL, COL, LAD), they don't play a more mediocre team until they get the Marlins at the end of the month, and even that is on the road.

My prediction?  I'm going to call 16-24 (.400) through this tough first portion of the season.  I truly do think this year's team is better than anything since 2005, but this opening stretch is going to be hard.  I'll cover that more in my annual position-by-position breakdown, but for the time being, don't go prediciting .500 baseball to start the season.

Good thing you won't see Stephen Strasburg until mid-summer.

      

Veteran middle infielder Orlando Hudson, who had been long rumored to be on his way to the Washington Nationals, is apparently going elsewhere according to Bill Ladson at MLB.com who cites Minnesota as Hudson's most likely destination.

The present situation in Washington, which has been spending the offseason seeking a dependable veteran 2B/SS, would appear to present an opportunity for Adam Kennedy who had been reported as being interested in coming on board with Washington but also as waiting for the Nats and Hudson to reach (or fail to reach) agreement.

More as we learn it.

UPDATED 2/4/10 3:40 pm: Mark Zuckerman, late of the Times, hears that the Nats are giving Kennedy a look but are willing to stand pat with Ian Desmond at shortstop and Cristian Guzman at second base, as they've been saying since the end of last season…

UPDATED 2/4/10 6:30 pm: Curtis Kitchen of Sports Radio 810 WHB in Kansas City tweets that the Hudson-Twins deal is done and that he hears Hudson wanted at least twice the money from the Nats that he'll get from Minnesota…

UPDATED 2/4/10 7:40 pm: Not so fast on the reported Minnesota discount -- Buster Olney of ESPN hears that Hudson's getting a $5 million deal from the Twins…

UPDATED 2/5/10 6:20 am: That didn't take long -- Kennedy has been signed to play second, reports Ladson. All indicators now point to having Guzman remain at shortstop and Desmond start at triple-A Syracuse…

      

How much will the Nationals' lineup have changed from last season to the one ahead?  Plenty -- and the changes may not be done yet.

If Opening Day were tomorrow, the only familiar face you could count on seeing in the same place on the field that it occupied last Opening Day would be that of third baseman Ryan Zimmerman.  It would be reasonable, now as then, for Zimmerman and Adam Dunn to hit in the third and fourth slots respectively -- but only after Dunn had manned first base in the top of the inning, instead of left field where he started last season.

That assumes that Josh Willingham will be patrolling left this coming April, which is not necessarily a safe assumption.  As has been the case off and on for most of the offseason, we've been hearing this week of rumors that Willingham is being shopped by the Nationals.

There was talk a while back of Atlanta being interested in Willingham, and there's talk now of the Braves wanting to free themselves of 37-year-old starter Derek Lowe and the $45 million left on his contract.  A trade of Willingham for Lowe, even if Atlanta could be persuaded to pick up most of Lowe's remaining salary, would not be a step forward for the Nats except perhaps in the unlikely event that a couple of the Braves' top prospects were thrown in.

No matter where Willingham were to go or whom he'd be traded for, his production at the plate would be missed at Nats Park.  That could account for Washington GM Mike Rizzo's admitted interest in free agent Mike Jacobs, an up-and-down hitter who accrued a mediocre stat line in 2009 (somewhat like that of 2007) but who, if due for an up year in 2010, might produce something on the order of the 32 home runs and 93 RBI that he logged for Florida in 2008.

A Jacobs acquisition would also potentially benefit the Nats' defense.  Were Jacobs to come on board, he could take over first base and possibly save a few runs there, while -- as ESPN's Buster Olney reminds us -- Dunn and his big bat could move back to left field, in which the neighboring presence of Nyjer Morgan would somewhat mitigate Dunn's leaden glove.

And none of the above speculation takes into account the possibility that the Nats might get an offer they can't refuse for Dunn himself (perhaps, for example, from the White Sox who could use some muscle at DH), which could give Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell an opportunity to shine.

Might either Willingham or Dunn start the season in another team's uniform?  Or will both begin (and end) the season under the curly W?

What do you think?

      

We're far from being able to draw any satisfactory conclusions, but here are some of the things we're thinking about in reaction to the announcement that Elijah Dukes has been optioned to triple-A Syracuse to make room for new trade acquisition Nyjer Morgan...

• The month of June saw Dukes spiral into near-oblivion at the plate, logging an un-Dukesian batting line of .198 / .253 / .333. That might well have got him sent down whether or not the Nats had ever made another personnel move this week.
• When polled overnight -- and thanks to all who responded! -- fans seemed to favor having Austin Kearns or Ronnie Belliard step aside. Unlike Dukes, though, either Belliard or Kearns would probably have had to be waived or designated for assignment, potentially leaving the Nats on the hook for a big chunk of salary with not even a warm body to show for it.
• Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham are arguably more tradable than Belliard or Kearns, and all their names (as well as Nick Johnson's) have popped up in rumors. As Buster Olney reminds us, though, it's a buyer's market.
• Character matters, per Nats acting GM Mike Rizzo, and Dukes might not be Rizzo's poster child for good makeup.  Since Dukes was a candidate for demotion anyway, Rizzo -- whether or not such was actually his intention -- had an easy opportunity to distinguish his approach from the "we'll work with anybody!" style of predecessor Jim Bowden.

      

The rumor mill having ground to something of an awkward halt regarding the duration of Nationals manager Manny Acta's tenure, one is entitled to apply deep discounts to the current murmurs about the impending departure of first baseman Nick Johnson via trade.

This Hutch will entertain such rumors anyway -- and with a light heart. Much as we admire Johnson's patient hitting and intelligent fielding, we know we are not Nick's only admirer, and a smart MLB team looking to contend would be wise to consider making the Nats an offer for the 30-year-old left-handed OPSmeister.

With Carlos Delgado slated for what could be season-ending hip surgery, the Mets are finding themselves with a bit of a void that Johnson could fill ably.  (We can't help wondering whether the Mets might have got in touch with Nats President Stan Kasten or acting GM Mike Rizzo while the team was in the Bronx this week.)  Amazin' Avenue explores one of the hotter rumors afoot these days, viz., a trade that would bring back 24-year-old right-handed reliever Bobby Parnell. Parnell has settled down a bit this week after a few shaky outings, and it doesn't sound like Amazin's readers are any more thrilled about parting with Parnell than our colleague Mike Kanick was a few weeks ago about picking him up.

We're not wild about the notion, either.  If the Nats agree to trade Johnson to the Mets, they must reap a better return than only a single relief arm that oscillates between shakiness and brilliance.  Those they have enough of as it is.  

Don't expect the Nats to stand pat, though.  As they've just done with Mike O'Connor, they'll continue to deal through the season, and if Jayson Stark is to be believed, Nick is as likely to go as anybody.  (If you think Stark is not to be believed, then try Jon Heyman on for size; he likes Adam Dunn as a Gotham option, and offers a number of other observations -- neither unkind nor unwelcome -- regarding the beleaguered Nats.)  Meantime, Buster Olney reminds us that Nick's departure for Queens, should it happen, would reunite him with his old boss, Mets general manager Omar Minaya.

Recall that, as general manager in Montreal, Minaya crafted the transaction that brought Johnson, Randy Choate and Juan Rivera to the Expos in exchange for Javier Vazquez, who had just enjoyed his peak season as a Montreal starter.  If Minaya hasn't lost his touch, he'll drive an equally hard bargain for Parnell (or whomever) now. 

Any deal, were it to occur, admittedly would be a sideshow to the Stephen Strasburg negotiations anyhow.  Nonetheless, Rizzo's handling of both the Johnson and Strasburg situations will be where he demonstrates whether that "acting" deserves to come off the sign on his office door.

      

Not to long ago, I wrote that the Nationals needed to have a better commitment to defense, and just so all you aren't thinking I am a Monday Morning Quarterback on this issue, I wrote it on April 1, and no it was not a joke.

Fast-forward a month later, and this Nationals team, currently at 5-15, currently is tied with the Cardinals with 21 errors, however have achieved that in 2 fewer games and with 100 less opportunities (864-759 in terms of chances).  The result?

The Nationals have given up 115 runs this season and only 99 of them are earned. This means that 14% of the Nationals runs are as a result of errors, in comparison, the Phillies (owners of the worst ERA in the NL) have 0% of their runs as a result of errors.  The Phillies are 11-9, Nationals are 5-15.

According to Buster Olney's analysis, "The fastest route to improvement might not the addition of a big home-run hitter or a high-profile free agent pitcher. Rather, the best road to improvement might be to commit a team to better defense."  In looking at the top 5 defensive teams in 2009 (Pirates, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Athletics, Mariners) the Pirates and Mariners were near the bottom in 2008, and nearly all these teams are near the top of the standings in 2009.

When examining the Rays rise to stardom in 2008, it was easy to say that Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton were the catalyst, but when looking at the numbers, Tampa was #1 in MLB Defensive Efficiency, and that reliability allows players to settle in, feel comfortable and not have to press.

Conversely, the Nationals are mired in bad defense.  The Nationals are dead last in the NL in defensive efficiency, and this can have a horrific impact on a tenuous pitching staff.  Case in point: Daniel Cabrera.

Daniel Cabrera has a problem with control, and this season opposing on base % against him is .389, with batting average being roughly .289 (Conversely, teams are hitting .286 against Lannan with an OBP of .336).  Cabrera, while wild and guilty of his share of walks, has given up 16 runs, 9 of them earned--43% of Cabrera's runs are unearned runs.  That is astounding!!!!! The team's record in Cabrera's starts? 0-4.

Stop the insanity!!! Defense is the key for this team.  Defensive stability will help this team settle into more of a rhythm on the mound, and more importantly, will allow the Nationals to focus on how to develop their young pitching staff.  Strasburg or no Strasburg, no team will contend for any playoffs with a last place defense.

      

OK, so the Nationals won the Strasburg Sweepstakes. (May it not come back to haunt us.)

We're still thinking about that 2008 loss column, the one with the over-100 figure in it. Nobody saw that coming, not even Buster Olney.

Such a record is not without precedent in Washington.  Youthful Nats fans can quiz their parents and grandparents (ah, who the hell are we kidding, they'll Google it) about previous craptastic teams that have infested the region. Such as the expansion Senators, who even after more than a generation of reinvention as the Texas Rangers have yet to bring home an AL pennant.

Or the original Senators -- who, just as they were about to turn the corner, decamped to lily-white Minnesota.

Or the only team a lot of us ever had any connection to before the Expos relocated to D.C.

The Orioles had been a woeful lot in their previous incarnation as the St. Louis Browns.  Owner Bill Veeck had been forced -- thanks in large part to an eleventh-hour transaction in which the moguls of Anheuser-Busch gained control of the Cardinals -- first to cede St. Louis bragging rights to the National League and then to yield ownership of the Browns.  Upon relocation to Baltimore in 1954, the team was no threat to unseat the Yankees or Indians as top dogs of the American League.

The inaugural edition of the Birds lost an even one hundred games. Their least effective starter, an unheralded 24-year-old, went 3-21 on a then-yucky 4.37 ERA.

That man's engagement in Baltimore was mercifully brief. In the remaining 13 seasons of his career, he made a number of stops in both leagues, logging some decent seasons and some indecent ones.

One of those stops was in the Bronx -- where, just two seasons after his Baltimore stint, the hero of our story, Don Larsen, was the Pinstripes' most effective starter behind Whitey Ford, compiling an 11-5 record and 3.26 ERA in 20 starts and 18 relief appearances. And notching a perfect game in the 1956 World Series.

While Larsen never pitched for the Expos, plenty of his ilk and better slipped through that franchise's fingers in its declining years.  Meanwhile, back to those '54 Orioles, it took the better part of a decade for that club to reach contention (and, after a couple of strong decades, far less to fall out of it, though they look to be trying to rise from the ashes).

The Nats, despite their early D.C. sputterings, stand a chance to reach contention soon if the pitching can step up. Will it take a Strasburg to make that happen -- or, even though it might not look like it today, could the next Larsen (or Pedro) possibly already be in our midst?

      

One-time superagent Jeff Moorad, who hit the spotlight by negotiating the contract that erstwhile Tribe star Manny Ramirez signed with the Sawx in 2000, is getting his 2009 off to a busy start out West.

The man who took over the D-Backs from iconic Phoenix sports entrepreneur and Diamondbacks founding CEO Jerry Colangelo in 2004 has just stepped down from the Snakes' leadership and says he has reached an agreement in principle to buy the San Diego Padres:

Moorad said Friday he heads a small but significant group of investors that has an exclusive right to complete the specifics of negotiations with Padres owner John Moores. . . .

Moorad said he has a long friendship with Moores and his wife, Becky, whose divorce precipitated the Padres' potential sale.

What's liable to be the effect on the Padres on and off the field?

The San Diego club was fortuitously thrust into a rebuilding stance by the Mooreses' expensive divorce. While that distraction will go away as the Mooreses exit the ownership, the Padres should complete the work on making the club younger and better.  They're a good bit of the way along; only seven members of the 40-man squad are over 30.

Also fortuitously, division rivals San Francisco and Los Angeles are apparently prepared to bid themselves silly over Ramirez.  That would set back the start of the Giants' own needed rebuilding, and would hasten the onset of the Dodgers', either of which events would advantage the Padres. 

As for the Friars executive suite itself, it's too early to know what this will mean for the futures of executive vice president / general manager Kevin Towers or San Diego executive VP (and former Dodgers GM) Paul DePodesta.  Buster Olney's blog offers an interesting analysis of their situations as well as those of others within the Padres organization.

We would imagine that Towers -- perhaps best known to Nationals fans for his pointed remarks about the negotiating prowess of Nats GM Jim Bowden -- will remain a force in MLB leadership, either in San Diego or elsewhere.

And if DePodesta should suddenly hanker after another GM posting, we know of one team that could use his services.

Help us Bring Hondo Home! Sign the petition and join the Facebook cause.

      

This time a year ago, the Nats were madly patching together a spring training roster of 37 pitchers and some dozens of position players. They had the temerity to act as though they were going to put an actual team onto the field, despite the obvious futility of doing so as expressed by such savants as Buster Olney.

Your grandmother could have got a tryout on that team. Hell, I could have got a tryout on that team.

The murmurs this year are just a little different. No one's complaining about an overage of pitching, to be sure, but stackups loom at first base, the outfield, and even the recently-declared-bereft middle infield. Now the buzz is not who are the Nats going to find -- but who are they going to let go of?

Here are my guys on the bubble, in descending order of vulnerability:

• Nick Johnson: He's reporting back healthy to a team that is as set at first base as it's ever been. Between Dmitri Young's popularity, his effectiveness as a hitter, and the need for Young to be a mentor for Elijah Dukes, Young isn't going anywhere for a while. With Kory Casto, Chris Marrero and Josh Whitesell in the system, carrying two good veteran first basemen is just not a reasonable option. Prediction: I look for him to be traded to the Yankees for prospects, sooner rather than later.
• Felipe Lopez: Acquired as a speedy, good-hitting fill-in when Cristian Guzman was down in 2006. Has not exactly set the world on fire. On top of that, going into his shell in 2007 won him no friends or fans. Prediction: None until we see if he makes it to Opening Day.
• Elijah Dukes: This is the guy I so want to be wrong about. But has he hit the bottom that he needs to in order to realize just how troubled he is, how much he needs to do to reclaim responsibility for his past and future actions? I wish I could see it. I just don't. Please prove me wrong. Prediction: None until we see how he does through Memorial Day. Better yet, let's take it a day at a time. (Good advice for Lopez, too. And for the rest of us.)
• Chad Cordero: The Nats, of all teams, do not need a $5M+ one-inning closer, especially when there are men like Jon Rauch and Chris Schroder (and maybe even Clint Everts) in the wings. Prediction: Trade to Indians for at least one prospect by the All-Star Break.

Your thoughts?