Even though they might not be battling for a playoff spot in 2010, the Washington Nationals will have plenty to say about who makes it into the postseason from the National League Eastern Division.  The 44 games left for the team between now and the end of the season will feature three back-to-back sets in which the Nationals face first the Braves and then the Phillies for three games each.

Tuesday evening begins the first of those series as the Nats travel to Atlanta.  Washington's announced starters will be left-hander Scott Olsen (3-4 win-loss record, 5.11 ERA) on Tuesday evening and veteran right-hander Livan Hernandez (8-8, 3.08) on Wednesday evening.  Lefty John Lannan (4-5, 5.23), coming off a superb four-hit performance over seven innings last Friday, will start Thursday's 1:05 getaway contest.

The Braves will counter on Tuesday with rookie left-hander Mike Minor (0-0, 4.50) who'll be making just his second appearance in a major-league uniform.  He'll be followed on Wednesday by ace righty Tim Hudson (14-5, 2.13) and on Thursday afternoon by veteran right-hander Derek Lowe (11-10, 4.29).

      

NATIONALS PARK, Washington -- In 2010, right-handed pitcher Livan Hernandez -- accustomed for some years now to the role of veteran innings-eater in whatever rotation he inhabited -- has added a new title to his credits with the Washington Nationals: staff ace.

That's not just "ace of an up-and-down pitching staff nagged by injuries."  Coming into Thursday evening, Hernandez' 2010 ERA+, at 136, is better than that of any other Washington starter -- and that's not all.

• It's better than that of any member of the rotation of NL Central-contending Cincinnati with at least 100 innings pitched.
• It's better than Tim Lincecum's.
• It's better than Stephen Strasburg's.

Would you have expected this from a man who in his most recent season had accrued a win-loss record of 9-12 and an ERA of 5.44?

Hernandez' resurgence might amaze many fans and maybe even some baseball people.  But from his manager, Jim Riggleman, Hernandez' 2010 performance evokes admiration rather than astonishment.

"Nothing really would surprise me about Livo," Riggleman said to reporters before Thursday night's game at Nationals Park.  "I've seen him for so many years from the other dugout, watching him pitch . . . mixing the pitches up and changing speeds.  Nothing surprises me about him."

Evidently that would include Hernandez' current 8-7 record and 3.03 ERA -- respectable numbers even in what is arguably the most dominant season for pitching since 1968.

"I'm just really pleased that he's doing it," Riggleman said. "He came into Spring Training, we didn't even know if he'd be on the club for sure, and what role he would have on the club, but I'm really glad we got him."

      

A dismal ten-game road trip during which the Washington Nationals could muster only three wins has pretty well scuttled whatever chances the team had at the All-Star break to contend for a berth in the postseason.

Part of that had to do with a disappointing outing for left-hander Ross Detwiler on Sunday as he filled in on three days' rest for injured righty Luis Atilano; we'll be talking more about that later in the week.  Fortunately, Detwiler gets a break during the first series of Washington's upcoming home stand as the Nats face division-leading Atlanta for a three-game set.

The series will feature all-right-handed pitching matchups, starting with rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg (5-2 win-loss record, 2.32 ERA) taking the mound for Washington on Tuesday evening.  He'll be followed on Wednesday evening by veteran Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12), who gave up just one run in his complete-game win last Thursday at Cincinnati, followed by Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50) for the Thursday afternoon contest.

Atlanta's starting pitchers will be Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12) on Tuesday evening, ace Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47) on Wednesday evening and veteran Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.48) on Thursday afternoon.

      

This weekend will see the Washington Nationals wrap up their longest unbroken stretch of home games for the 2010 season as the Los Angeles Dodgers come to town Friday through Sunday, after which the Nats will go on the road for a week.

The Dodgers will offer knuckleballer Charlie Haeger (0-1, 7.20 ERA) for the Nats hitters' enjoyment -- or, perhaps, frustration -- on Friday night. Haeger's season hasn't got off to a stellar beginning; in his two 2010 starts, he's struck out 15 batters but has also issued 10 hits, nine walks and eight earned runs over nine innings. Friday's result may well ride on the Nats' ability to wait for their pitch, which they've exhibited acceptably so far in 2010: as of this Thursday morning, they were facing an average of 3.86 pitches per plate appearance, just about the league average. Haeger will be followed up by Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 3.18) on Saturday and putative ace Chad Billingsley (1-0, 7.17) -- who's had his own share of struggles of late -- on Sunday.

Making his MLB debut on Friday for the Nats will be right-hander Luis Atilano (2-0, 1.64 ERA at triple-A Syracuse), a survivor of Tommy John surgery who was acquired in a 2006 trade of Daryle Ward to Atlanta. Atilano will be taking the place of Jason Marquis in the rotation as Marquis goes onto the DL while he and the team's medical staff decide what, if anything, needs to be done about the floating bodies that were discovered in his elbow by a Wednesday MRI scan.

Right-hander Craig Stammen (1-0, 8.16), coming off a fine Monday evening performance, should get the call for the Nats on Saturday, while lefty Scott Olsen (0-1, 11.74) will be hoping for an improved result on Sunday after having got shellacked by the Rockies this past Tuesday.

This Hutch is brooding over the question of exactly when it was that Marquis' situation might have started to exhibit itself to the point that the Nats should have noticed a problem and done something about it.

One would hope that Marquis underwent an MRI scan as part of the physical exam on which his current two-year, $15 millon contract was contingent.  Even so, it's entirely possible that such a diagnostic procedure wouldn't have uncovered anything to worry about at the time; for one thing, the bone fragments might not have become numerous or sizable enough to make themselves evident until after the first of the year.

Whatever the case, the Nats will be hoping that Marquis' recovery timetable will be as hopeful as Stammen's was after discovery of a similar condition at the end of the 2009 season.

      

This series concludes by ranking each team in the National League East from best to worst based on the estimated effectiveness of their relief pitching.

• Even as they swoon over the anticipated hitting and fielding exploits of top prospect Jason Heyward, fans in Atlanta should be tipping their caps in the direction of the Turner Field bullpen, which projects to contain the division's strongest (and oldest) setup-closer tandem in right-hander Takashi Saito, 40, and lefty Billy Wagner, 38. Youth will also contribute as middle reliever Jesse Chavez, 26, and swingman Kris Medlen, 24, help preserve leads for the Braves.
• The 2009 performance of Brad Lidge gave Philadelphia far too many thrills in September and October. He'll begin 2010 on the 15-day disabled list after offseason surgery, while Ryan Madson steps in as closer. Much is hoped for from projected setup man Jose Contreras; less will be delivered, if perhaps somewhat more steadily, from Danys Baez. Twenty-four-year-old Dominican southpaw Antonio Bastardo rates to have every opportunity to prove himself in a long-relief and emergency-start role on the Phillies' somewhat scrambled staff.
• Florida will be hoping that the 2010 performance of setup man Renyel Pinto, who will be fronting closer Leo Nunez, resembles that of 2009 more than that of 2008. They'll also be hoping either that Nunez really isn't tipping his pitches or that he figures out a way to stop doing it. One-time teen sensation Jose Veras will be called on in the middle innings every few days, while Burke Badenhop will alternate between long reliever and sixth starter.
• Beleaguered New York fans can at least expect closer Francisco Rodriguez to be dependably effective.  The bigger questions are whether setup man Kiko Calero will look as good in Flushing in 2010 as he did in Miami in 2009, whether rookie Jenrry Mejia will look as good in the regular season as he did in March, and whether Nelson Figueroa will have to be summoned more than twice a week.
• Assuming that they make it through seven frames with a lead, Washington could do worse than to call on Brian Bruney in the eighth. Preserving that lead in the ninth may be more problematic, given that they'll be putting the chips on Matt Capps whose performance in Spring Training rarely evoked memories of the dominance he enjoyed in Pittsburgh before 2009.  (Happily, Drew Storen should be along some time in June to reinforce the back of the 'pen.)  The remarkable reverse platoon split of right-hander Tyler Clippard may at least spare the Nationals from having to search for a left-handed specialist. Miguel Batista and Jason Bergmann rate to split the swingman duty.

      

This series continues by looking at the top two starting pitchers for each team in the NL East, ranking each team's leading pair from strongest to weakest.

• Philadelphia didn't go out and get perennial All-Star Roy Halladay just to give themselves the thrill of being involved in the headline trade of the offseason: he rates to be putting Philly phannies in the seats both in April and well into October. Number-two starter Cole Hamels could be the number-one starter on almost any other team in the NL.
• It's guys like Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens -- the latter's recent shoulder discomfort notwithstanding -- that make Atlanta fans think their team is headed to the playoffs. It's sentimental decisions like pitching Derek Lowe on Opening Day that will spoil those fans' hopes.
• The Mets will be hoping for bouncebacks from Johan Santana (offseason elbow surgery) and John Maine (shoulder trouble in 2008 and 2009).
• The performances of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco have shown how a team like the Marlins can benefit from using early draft selections (each was a fourth-round pick) to acquire high-school arms with upside. Their ability to pry decent seven-figure salaries out of the tight-fisted Fish without having to go to arbitration has shown how guys like Johnson and Nolasco can benefit from hiring Matt Sosnick as their agent.
• Washington will start the year with doughty left-hander John Lannan -- who burnished his heretofore-modest batting line by working Josh Johnson for a base on balls this past Sunday, and will be your starter Friday afternoon in Viera against the Cardinals -- and his fellow New Yorker Jason Marquis at the front of the rotation. While the starting corps as a whole will look a little shaky at the beginning of the season, it will be less so in a couple of months once Chien-Ming Wang and Stephen Strasburg are ready to take the mound on South Capitol Street.  (In the meantime the Nats will be hoping that Livan Hernandez' new hobby has put enough gas back into his tank to mitigate the shakiness somewhat.)

      

If center field is the National League East's sick bay at the outset of the 2010 season, right field projects to be its demonstration lab, with several high-level prospects, past and present, at the position. The rankings below, from highest to lowest, account for both defense and offense.

• Will Jayson Werth enjoy a 2010 season that's as stellar as his 2009 was? Unlikely as that is, he'll still be the NL East's premier right fielder and one of the reasons Philadelphia will be playing well into October. Another reason will be fourth outfielder and pinch hitter Ben Francisco.



 

• Some Atlanta fans, and at least one sportswriter, think Jason Heyward is a stronger prospect than Stephen Strasburg. However silly that assertion -- and maybe it's not so silly when taking into account the relatively greater vulnerability of pitchers as compared to position players -- it's Heyward that Atlanta fans will be looking forward to seeing in right (and at the plate) in 2010.  The team may want to delay Heyward's MLB debut because of service-time considerations, in which case you can expect Matt Diaz to be Heyward's opening act in April and May and his backup thereafter.
• The dismissal of Elijah Dukes gives Washington a dilemma.  Do they install veteran utilityman Willie Harris as a known, competent quantity in right field, as manager Jim Riggleman seems to be indicating?  Or do they take one last chance on erstwhile vaunted prospect Justin Maxwell -- who may not have reached his ceiling, but at 26 is no longer vaunted and whose prospect status is steadily evaporating?  A club with a hole like the Nationals' in right can ill afford -- at least in 2010 -- the luxury of designating someone like Harris a utility player, and a player as prone as Maxwell has been to strikeouts and injuries may not be whom they want to move forward with.  However, with Mike Morse as the team's only other handy option, a platoon seems likely, and J-Max may yet get his share of innings out there.
• Another top-five prospect, Florida's Mike Stanton, is waiting in the wings to challenge Cody Ross for the right field job at Land Shark Stadium, or whatever they're calling the building these days. A sore elbow and the wish to push the start of Stanton's arbitration clock back to the end of the 2013 season mean that he'll probably not arrive in Miami before June. Until then, you'll see Ross and Brett Carroll at the position.
• If you crave the solace of the familiar, New York is the place for you. There you can watch Jeff Francoeur, as is his custom, go down on strikes frequently but slug for extra bases almost as frequently. An occasional change of pace will be provided by Gary Matthews Jr. who will contribute his usual bases on balls as well as unspectacular range in the field.

      

This series continues its position comparisons of the National League East by rating the division's teams according to whom they'll be deploying at center field in the 2010 season. The rankings below, from highest to lowest, account for both defense and offense.

• The injury bell continues to toll at Citi Field, where the Mets will find themselves without the services of All-Star Carlos Beltran as he recovers from knee surgery. Beltran's absence will force the New Yorkers to split the duty between Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr., transforming their center field from the best in the NL East to the worst.
• Until Beltran comes back, Philadelphia's center field rates to be the first among rough equals provided there's nothing seriously the matter with the shoulder of voluble speed demon Shane Victorino. Utility outfielder Ben Francisco will be Victorino's understudy.
• Onetime Pittsburgh fan favorite Nate McLouth should be the front-line starter in Atlanta, to be backed up by either Gregor Blanco or once-hailed (now surgically repaired) up-and-comer Jordan Schafer.
• The enthusiasm, speed and personality of Nyjer Morgan will serve Washington well -- or at least entertainingly -- provided his hamstring is healed and he doesn't suffer further injury on the base paths. Utilityman (and possible right fielder pro tempore) Willie Harris will collect some of his 300 or so at-bats on the days he subs for Morgan in center.  That's a role in which Harris should be comfortable, having played over 450 innings at the position in 2009.
• Rounding out the injury roll, Florida's Cameron Maybin has been nursing a sore groin. Fortunately (if not particularly inspiringly) for the Marlins, Maybin and Cody Ross -- who thus far in Spring 2010 has also had a sore groin as well as a thumb injury -- are roughly interchangeable.

      

If there'll be anything striking about the National League East's left fielders in 2010, it'll be a remarkable degree of parity and few areas of abject weakness.  (At least defensively, especially since Adam Dunn has decided to concentrate on becoming a first baseman.)

The rankings below, from highest to lowest, account for both defense and offense.

• Chris Coghlan has impressed the Marlins enough to convince that penurious outfit to part with a salary some $50,000 over the league minimum.  He's certainly worth it, as he's apt to outperform his predecessor, current Washington National Josh Willingham, at the position.  Brett Carroll will be Coghlan's backup.
• Not that Washington will suffer.  Although Willingham's better known for his offense, you could do far worse than to deploy him in left field every day.  (Or almost every day, with supersub Willie Harris as the number-two guy in left.)
• The man Harris spelled in Atlanta, Matt Diaz, will most likely be a backup himself this year for former Pinstripe Melky Cabrera.
• Philadelphia fans will be hoping for another great year from Raul Ibanez instead of the more likely regression to the mean.  Ben Francisco, whom the Phillies picked up in the deal with Cleveland that also brought them two-plus months of Cliff Lee, will be the team's fourth outfielder and bench bat.
• Jason Bay was a smart and perhaps somewhat lucky pickup for the Mets, whose fascination with Bay's venerable backup Gary Matthews Jr. cannot be characterized so easily or hopefully.  (That fascination may linger for a while; Matthews is having a good Spring Training so far.)

      

This series continues its position comparisons of the NL East by rating the division's teams according to whom they'll be deploying at shortstop in the 2010 season.  The rankings below, from highest to lowest, account for both defense and offense.

• Florida manager Fredi Gonzalez' job is made a little easier by the comforting presence of All-Star Hanley Ramirez.  Should Ramirez need an occasional breather, the Marlins will have to settle for onetime National Emilio Bonifacio.
• The second-best of the NL East's regular shortstops, Yunel Escobar, and best of the division's backups at short, Omar Infante, will occupy the position in Atlanta.
• Uncertainty clouds the shortstop situation in Flushing.  If Jose Reyes' thyroid is brought under control by Opening Day (which sounds improbable), and he doesn't have any other off-field medical distractions, New York's middle infield shouldn't be much worse than average.  Otherwise an unedifying shortstop platoon of (pick two) Ruben Tejada, Alex Cora and/or Anderson Hernandez alongside equally unimpressive Luis Castillo at second will again be a bane to Mets pitchers and a boon to rival hitters.
• Speaking of All-Stars, why -- assuming the Mets don't bottom out -- should the Phillies be ranked no higher than fourth?  Don't blame Jimmy Rollins; but backup Juan Castro, whom the team is trying to convince itself that they acquired for his fielding prowess, will no more impress with his glove than with his weak bat on Rollins' days off.
• Reyes' medical condition notwithstanding, it's Washington whose middle infield rates to be the most porous in the division (and possibly in MLB).  While some of Ian Desmond's more extreme boosters would just as soon see Cristian Guzman take a hike, it wouldn't help; the Nationals would be even more perilously shallow at short without Guzman than with him.  Which of the two gets the Opening Day job will depend largely on the strength of Guzman's shoulder.