I come home from vacation and see that the Nats have changed personnel a bit.  Nick Johnson, gone.  We'll miss him, but it makes sense.  Joe Beimel, gone.  Loved the hair, but makes even more sense.  But wait, who is this general manager declaring, "We are not tearing this thing down to the foundation and re-building...this is a team that is not far away from being a good, solid baseball team"?

Huh?  I feel like the AFLAC duck shaking his head to Yogi Berra's nonsense.  And I'm wondering: has Jim Bowden taken over the body and mind of Mike Rizzo?

Not far away?  To believe that, you have to think that the team is set in the reconfigured outfield (Willingham, Morgan, Dukes), corner infielders (Zim, Dunn) and catcher (Flores), and that a couple of the young arms (pick 'em) will stick in the rotation with Lannan.  You just have to solve for middle infield, adjust a couple contracts (Dunn, Willingham) to stay around a while longer, and sign Strasburg.  

What's wrong with this view?  It assumes a Bowden-like belief that prospects (any of the pitchers) and projects (Dukes) are poised to fulfill their potential tomorrow...that Dunn doesn't give away more runs at 1B than he creates at the bat, and he extends his contract beyond next year...that Jesus Flores can actually play a full season without getting injured...and that the Lerners will pay a draft pick the most money ever.

That's a lot of if's.  And you haven't even addressed 2B and SS.  

Now, it's possible that all these things will come true.  As a fan, I sure hope they do.  But I'd rather wait for some evidence of that before declaring that the Nats are ready to challenge the Phillies.  

As I've written before, I think Rizzo should be the permanent GM.  His early prediction of looming bullpen disasters and his trades like that for Nyjer Morgan have been spot on.  And he has demonstrated a level-headedness not found in predecessor and some of his current bosses.  But when quotes like "not far away" come from Rizzo, I begin to think it has been Mike, rather than me, who's been spending too much time in the sun.

      

Jim Riggleman has managed the Nats since the All-Star Break.  What kind of job has he done?

It's tough to measure since so much of the manager's job is handling players.  There are signs that he might be what Bruce Springsteen described as taking "one step up and two steps back."  And there are other signs that he might well represent the competence needed to help the Nats break out of that very cycle. 

Riggleman started out by praising Manny Acta and saying not much would change except perhaps the messenger.  Maybe he was just being gracious -- a quality not practiced enough these days -- but he wasn't exactly positioning himself as change you can believe in.  Still, he underscored the importance of defense and holding players accountable.

But right off the bat, he missed an opportunity to act on that message.  In his first game as manager, Ryan Zimmerman fielded an easy ground ball but airmailed the throw to first base, which ultimately led to a run. Wow, talk about having a gift handed to you!  What stronger message could be sent than by benching the FOF for the rest of the game for being careless?  Instead, Riggleman left Zim in the game.  

One step back.

Then there was the case of the moody shortshop.  Displaced by Nyjer Morgan in the lead-off spot, Guzman had been relegated to batting sixth in hopes that his slap-happy ways could drive in a run or two. That didn't happen -- his batting average has cratered by 28 percentage points this month -- and Guzzie didn't like the switch.  But rather than telling Guzzie to suck it up, Riggleman moved him up to the #2 spot, bumping Nick Johnson and his .412 OBP from that slot as well as denying base stealing opportunities for Morgan.  Guzzie's performance since then: an .090 batting average, which is the only way he gets on base. 

Two steps back.

But alas, life with Riggo has had its pluses, and over time they might outweigh the minuses.  

Rather than following Acta's practice of yanking starting pitchers in favor of the worst bullpen in baseball, Riggleman has given his starters the opportunity to work through trouble and go deeper into games.  Now, that approach, when carried too far, can ruin young arms.  For the Nats, though, it is exactly what is needed to separate the wheat from the chafe among the revolving door of young pitchers in the rotation.  

One step up.

Add to that actually holding infield practice on a regular basis, instead of merely promising to do so.  Not starting an Acta favorite, Anderson Hernandez, that Riggleman believes isn't good enough.  A quiet demeanor that, importantly, does not come off as Acta-like apathy.  And you get a sense that Riggleman might represent change that is a net positive for the Nats. 

Will that be enough to improve the Nats?  We'll get the answer in August and September. 

      

The Nationals are on pace to match, if not do worse than, last year's sorry record (59-102).  The team is forced to de-Bowdenize itself by getting rid of bad player acquisitions.  A general malaise has fallen over the club.  And we are seeing fans turn out in droves...in Baltimore.

So it's worth asking: Do the Nats need to go through a(nother) rebuilding process?  And if so, what is the first move to make?  Here are a few options, which I'll write about in upcoming blogs.  But let me know which one you would choose.  Of course, you might think two, three or all are needed, but start with the one that stands out most in your mind.

A -- Overhaul ownership by convincing the Lerners to sell the club

B -- Overhaul the front office by firing Stan Kasten

C -- Overhaul the coaching staff by firing Manny Acta

D -- Overhaul the roster by trading our most valuable players (Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson) to obtain a maximum haul of prospects

      

When you're 3-13, most teams will shake things up a bit.  And the Nationals have given GM Mike Rizzo plenty of material to work with.  Sending Lastings Milledge to AAA and blowing up the bullpen apparently haven't been enough change.  So what is his next move?

1 -- Bench Elijah Dukes?  Three bozo plays in a week.  When he learns that sunglasses don't work on top of his cap, he can return to the line-up.  In the meantime, Justin Maxwell is not likely to misplace his shades.

2 -- Send Saul Rivera to AAA?  For real, this time.  

3 -- DFA Daniel Cabrera?  Strasburg can't get here fast enough. 

4 -- Give Cristian Guzman a personal faith healer (and whatever else it takes) so he can play every game?  Alberto Gonzalez committing five errors in eight games and Alex Cintron hitting .000 are not exactly my idea of "getting it done."

5 -- Trade (pick one or more): Ronnie Belliard, Willie Harris, Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham?  Relief pitching and middle infield defense seem to be the biggest needs.  My guess (and it's just that): Willingham and Belliard go first.  By the trade deadline, more could follow. 

6 -- Fire Manny Acta?  Not something I favor, but it's hard to change the culture without changing people at the top.  And Stan Kasten is not about to fire himself.  

So, those are among the possibilities.  Which one do you believe is the most likely?