Strasburg is on the way.  Oswalt maybe yes, maybe no.  And in the not too distant future, the MASH unit will be releasing a few patients named Detwiler, Marquis, Wang and J-Zim.  So one key question that pops up is:  Who will get bumped from the rotation?  If you have to think for a moment before coming up with an answer, then you're proving a point:  there are multiple candidates.  And that's probably the best way to view the starting rotation these days, as one that will go through a fair amount of flux this year. 

Let's work backwards.  Picture the 2011 starting rotation as one being anchored by Strasburg and Zimmermann.  The other three spots?  Well, there's a whole host of possible combinations there.  So don't worry about that now.  Instead, come back to the present and evaluate the current starting five.  If you had to rank them, you'd probably come up with something like this:  1) Livo; 2) Olsen; 3) Lannan; with Stammen and Atilano about the same as 4 and 5.  The obvious point: neither Strasburg nor J-Zim are there.

Of the current group, you have to think that Lannan likely will improve (he started slow last year but then picked up) while Livo (track record) and Olsen (shoulder plus track record) will come back to the pack a bit.  That still leaves Stammen and Atilano where they are: prime candidates to be replaced by Strasburg, presumably in early June.  (Got your tickets?)

Which one is more likely to go?  Pick your favorite statistics, and you won't find a whole lot of difference between the two.  Atilano has a better ERA.  Stammen has a better K/BB ratio.  But neither is dominant.  So flipping a coin might not be a bad method here.  If I had to keep one, I'd keep Stammen.  He seems to have more upside potential, and is far from an automatic out as a batter.  In fact, he has more RBI than Justin Maxwell.  But does that mean his pitching job is safe?  Certainly not if the Nats somehow convince Oswalt to switch uniforms.  In that event, Stammen either gets bumped from the rotation or, possibly, is part of a trade package to the Astros.  

If Oswalt does not become a Nat -- and I cannot imagine that he will -- then Stammen still needs to protect himself against the MASH unit.  He's likely have a half-dozen or so starts to prove himself there.  Of all the rest, the more important arrival will be J-Zim who, if the Nats plan this right, could actually take Strasburg's slot when Strasburg hits his innings limit for the year, say, around Labor Day.  If that's the case, then the other slots will be one revolving door after another.  Will Lannan break out of his early season slump?  Will Detwiler finally fulfill his potential?  Will Wang come back as anything remotely close to his dominant Yankee days?  Is Marquis done?  

Just thinking about all this makes my head hurt.  Somebody go out, pitch well, and put an end to all this.  

      

Okay, how many of you really thought the Nats would have a winning record by now?  Certainly not me.  But I'll take it.  So what are we to make of the first couple weeks of the season?  Here are some somewhat random impressions from my visits to the ballpark.  

-- The Nats should just give Livo a lifetime contract.  The guy will be pitching until he's 40, and then some. 

-- How about that stabilizing force Marquis was supposed to be?  Oh, the plan is to develop young pitchers.  That's right.  I get confused.  In our season ticket package, our next games are Friday and Sunday.  Marquis is scheduled to start on Friday.  When I mentioned this to my son, he said: "Sunday looks like a great day for baseball."

-- If Ray Knight wore the silver Elvis wig, would anyone know the difference?  Kudos to Ray, though, for signing autographs before the MASN pre-game show.  You can tell the guy just lives for being at the ballpark.

-- Zim looks like, well, Zim.  Worth the price of admission all by himself. 

-- Josh Willingham is a better defender than most people give him credit for.  Our seats are in left field, right behind Josh, and he has made some darn athletic plays out there.  

-- I have sold all of my Phillies tickets on StubHub.  Do I need to explain?

-- What's up with the Nats radio signal?  Do you know what Charlie Slowes sounds like on AM 1500 heading to Ashburn, Va.?  Neither do I.  All static, all the time.  At blogger day last summer, I asked Stan Kasten about getting a better radio signal.  And he replied that it's "a really complicated issue" -- gosh, I hadn't heard those words before -- with the need to send signals in so many different directions.  Um, geography 101: When there is a team in Baltimore and a team in Washington, most Washington fans will reside in the Commonwealth of Virginia.  Point the signal that way, and you'll be doing better.

-- Okay, I don't want to end on a negative (this time).  So whoever thought of having day games for both Saturdays and Sundays in April and May, my hat's off to you.  Sure beats the heck out of last year's nighttime freeze.  

Anyway, two weeks into the season, the Nats are hanging in there.  Let's see what the next couple weeks have in store for us.    

      

Just when we were ready to close up shop and declare the 2009 season (mercifully) over, the Nats have staged a nice little winning streak.  

A sweep of the stunningly bad Mets to close out the final home stand, complete with game-saving catches and walk-off HRs.  Now, it's been the Braves' turn to lay down.  And for the second consecutive night, the Nats came out on the winning end, 6-3.  

Read the gamers in the Post, Times, MLB, AP and Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Livan Hernandez made his case to stay with the Nats in 2010 with a quality start (6.1 innings, 3 runs) and a double to boot.  Young guns Ian Desmond (2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI) and Justin Maxwell (2-5) offered similar hope.  And Adam Dunn finally broke out of his 7-game hitless streak by smashing 2 doubles.  No HR, though.  

Just 2 games left for Dunn to get to 40 HR.  Just to refresh, another 2 dingers and Dunn joins a short list of MLB players in history who have hit 40 or more HRs in 6 consecutive seasons.  And one of those guys is named Ruth.

Can he do it?  

      

Hope.  It's a powerful feeling.  One that comforts in times of despair.  One that rewards as success builds.

Last night, hope was high in the ballpark.  For it was the return to DC of Livan Hernandez, the workhorse who pitched for the Nats during their better years (2005-06).  With many of the other pitchers delivering non-memorable seasons, could Livan be the Livan of Old and right the rotation?

Not last night.  Instead, we got a modern-day Livan who sports a 5.54 ERA, worst among the Nats' current starting pitchers.  (I'm excluding Mock's awful run in the bullpen.)  Against the Marlins, Livan gave up 6 runs in just 5 innings.  And the Nats went down to their eighth straight loss, 9-5.  Read the gamers from the Post, Times, MLB, AP and Miami Herald.

It's a shame, really.  After all, Livan has showed flashes of his old self since returning to the Nats, with his most recent outing being a 3-run, complete game against the Padres.  Pitching in his old uniform and in his new home park should have been just as special.  It wasn't. 

So the question begins to shift to whether the Nats should keep Livan around for 2010.  Read Tom Boswell's argument here.  And hope for a better outing next time. 

      

One day after welcoming back Livan Hernandez, the Nats lost Nyjer Morgan.  In leading off the game, he turned in a typical Morgan appearance:  walk, steal of second base, steal of third base, scored on Cristian Guzman's base hit.  But in stealing third, Morgan jammed his wrist into the bag and broke his hand.  And the rest of the season was lost for him.  See the video here.  

Morgan's injury was the only blotch in an otherwise good game for the Nats.  They beat the Cubs, 5-4 -- taking 2 of 3 games in the series -- backed by HRs from the Bash Brothers (Ryan Zimmerman, 27 HR, 88 RBI; and Adam Dunn, 34 HR, 90 RBI).  Read the gamers from the Post, Times, MLB and AP.  And for the latest in the Cubs soap opera, check out the Chicago Tribune.  

But Morgan's injury was the story.  Since joining the Nats in June, Morgan had transformed the offense and defense.  He gave the Nats a true lead-off hitter, going .351/.396./435 with 24 SB as a Nat.  He paroled CF like no other Nat, demonstrating tremendous range.  And he brought a sense of energy and enthusiasm that the Nats sorely lacked.  

Now he is gone for the year.  And with him, some of the enjoyment we surely would have experienced in the final weeks of the season.  Bummer.  

      

This makes sense for a couple reasons.

Detwiler has struggled in recent starts, appearing to be overmatched at times.  Still, he over-performed as a spot starter -- essentially bumping Sharon Martis from the rotation -- and can now develop a bit more in AAA, which is still an upgrade from where he was before (AA).

Mock has been horribly misused by the Nationals, forced into a relief role for which he had not been accustomed.  Now we'll get to see him in his natural role as a starter.  I'm looking forward to that. Remember, Rizzo traded for him (and Matt Chico) a couple years back, sending Livan to the D-Backs.  And spotting talent has been Rizzo's strength.  

Much of the second half will involve innings management for the young pitchers (see Zimmermann, Jordan). So, adding Mock now is a good move.