We have spent some time at NDN talking about the value of Adam Dunn, his improved defense, and the fact that his skill set is something that costs most teams about $100M. So why has he not been extended, why is he the constant talk of trade rumors, and why is the proposed value (4 yr $48M suggestion from Buster Olney) so low? 

On one hand, you have the career of Dunn, often viewed as a power hitter with little value elsewhere. A strikeout machine and long thought a wooden fielder, Dunn has always been tagged with that label of “not really a winner.” Those viewpoints are harsh, fanned by inflammatory comments by a certain former General Manager, and not steeped in any statistical basis.  

On the other hand, you have the challenge that faces Mike Rizzo and the Nationals. A player like Dunn at the mid-season can net you some Blue Chip prospects—like Angels phenom Mike Trout—which can help turn around your franchise. The Nationals offense has sputtered due to some inability to get the job done at specific positions (Morgan, Guzman, Desmond). Is it wise to move one piece to potentially solidify two other positions?

I don’t envy Mike Rizzo. I think Dunn is a player that needs to be re-signed to a 4 year deal (take Dunn till he is 35), and lock up the #4 spot in the lineup as well as the clubhouse.  Dunn's perceived lack of defense (I say perceived as his first base skills have improved) and high K rates have kept him out of the upper echelon of contracts for power hitting first basemen (Fielder, Howard, Teixeira), yet his production is on par.   This viewpoint keeps his contractual ceiling low, and makes him an easier player to re-sign rather than finding his replacement on the open market.

With young players like Chris Marrero starting to hit, and the potential of Bryce Harper being with this team, the Nationals may not need a ton of help on offense. The emergence of Marrero may mean that Willingham is the Nat to leave, not Dunn.  

The deadline will be a difficult dance this year, as the Nationals have made major strides (at 40-52, the Nationals would have to go 19-51 to equal last year’s record), but still need to improve. Do they try and trade proven talent (Dunn, Willingham) for offense prospect or pitching prospect? Do they trade prospects (Detwiler, Marrero, Espinosa?) to try and lure a proven pitcher like Oswalt or Haren who has another year on their contract? 

What do you think? And where will Adam Dunn be on August 1^st? What about April 1^st of 2011?

      

In case you live on Mars, the Nationals arrived in a very big way last week.  While the week began with the Bryce Harper draft, that became almost a footnote after Hurricane Strasburg destroyed every Pirate and Indian en route to the NL Player of the Week award. While Strasburg won a great individual acheivement, the award and the wins (2-0) marked the arrival of an important era in Washington--the era of respectability.

At 31-33 going into Tuesday night's game, the Nationals were on the precipice before Strasburg arrived.  Mike Rizzo's overhaul of this team is evident not only in the quality of play, but in the hustle and quality of people.  While National fans have seen this and talked about it for awhile, the current play and growth of this team has caught the attention of Jayson Stark and other writers from outside the DC area, and all are in agreement: The "plan" is no longer a far away thing.  The Nationals are built to compete, and to compete right now. 

The Nationals have an unreal core that includes future (and current) stars at the MLB level: Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmermann, and Tyler Clippard.  As far as players in the minors 1-2 years away? Power hitting catcher Derek Norris; strong glove play at second from Danny Espinosa; rehabbing pitching (mentally and physically) in Ross Detwiler and Craig Stammen.  The elephant in the room? Bryce Harper.  If they sign him, he is 2 years away with that bat.  That is an amazing core of talent on par with some of the best young core in baseball (Rays). 

That amazing core of talent does not even include pending free agent Adam Dunn, who has expressed his desire to finish his career in DC; Josh Willingham, signed through 2011 and hitting at career levels; Pudge Rodriguez, a revelation at and behind the plate and signed through 2011; Nyjer Morgan, the energetic center fielder who is having an off year, but who captivated the team in 2009; and Roger Bernadina and Mike Morse, both solid outfielders whose rotation of good defense and timely hitting have helped make that platoon work.

Controlling young talent is a key to keeping a team competitive, but the other side of the coin is that they have to be productive. No position is harder to groom than pitching. Ross Detwiler (#6 overall pick) and Craig Stammen have struggled early in their tenure, but the hope is they can ease into more of a permanent back-end of the rotation role with less pressure.  On the other hand, young pitchers like Clippard and Storen have helped solidify the bullpen and turned a weakness into an area of strength relatively quickly.  With that foundation in the later innings, young pitching can hopefully settle down.  Rizzo has also built quite a stable of available arms who, while not to be counted on for 30 starts, have helped spell some pitchers as they develop.  Recent draft picks Sammy Solis and AJ Cole (if they sign), would add to that stable and challenge to join the rotation in 2-3 years.

On the offensive side of the ball, young talent like Ian Desmond,  Roger Bernadina have shown that they can play everyday and contribute.  With a 8.9 VORP and 1.3 WAR, Desmond has proved to be the shortstop of the future.  Bernadina's numbers are much more modest, but with a 4.2 VORP and 0.4 WAR as a replacement player, he has done his job and then some.  Both have shown the ability to grow in future years and provide more for this team.

With solid production from their core 3-4-5 hitters, timely production from their 6-7 hitters (Pudge and Desmond are crushing with RISP), a solid relief core holding leads and getting saves, an elite starting pitching option (Strasburg) that can rival anyone in the league in two years, plus a solid sidekick (Zimmermann) whose pitching rates as a rookie were better than Clayton Kershaw and Tommy Hanson, the Nationals now seem 1-2 pieces away from contending for a playoff spot on an annual basis. 

Scary, isn't it?

      

It seems all that Josh Willingham needed in the past was a chance.

When in Florida, the Hammer posted two years of 500+ AB's and the results were solid: .852 and .827 OPS with 20+ HR and 70+ RBI both seasons.  Now, those numbers won't knock your socks off, and the folks at Baseball-Reference know that by his comps. 

The past two years though, his AB's have dropped, but his production has remained solid; posting AB's of 351 and 427, though posting OPS' of .834 and .863. This year, through almost 50 games, the results have been much different.

In 144 AB's, the Hammer has clubbed 9 HR, 31 RBI, and posted a .285/.435/.535 line good for a .970 OPS; production that would put him on pace for his first 30 HR, 100 RBI season of his career at the age of 31. Is this a fad though? Not if you look at the Hammer's rates. 

While his walks per at bat and his walks to strikeout ratio are better than ever in his career, his AB to Homerun ratio and his total bases per at bat ratios are in line with career averages.  His Isolated Power numbers are in line with last year's totals and not far off his 2006 and 2008 seasons. 

In Washington, Willingham has Adam Dunn hitting ahead of him (an OBP machine) which gives him ample RBI opportunities, meaning his production will not wane (he is 3rd in the team with # of at bats with RISP).  He is better protected in this lineup than he was in Florida, so his raw production numbers should be higher than what he posted there.  With 600 Plate Appearances in 2010, and rates around historical averages, Willingham should continue to hammer and continue to impress the Nats fans and front office.

      

As baseball gets into the 1/4 turn, writers from all over the sports world are calling the Nationals the surprise team of the season.  After two straight 103 loss seasons, this team's record is starting to resemble a contending team that may be buyers at trade deadline and also has a plethora of intriguing options joining the major league ranks in the early summer.  So with a respectable record for any team not named the Yankees, how are the Nationals doing it? Are they statistically that much better than last year? Are they more clutch than other teams? The answers may surprise you.  

After the doubleheader loss on Saturday, here is where the Nationals rank in the NL in terms of offense:

The offensive production is solid, but not spectacular, and is difficult to draw inferences based on their rank.  There have been clutch moments, such as Zim's HR against the Phillies, or Pudge's 4-4 game, or a Willingham homerun to take the lead, but those are sprinkled in with some 0-5 moments, struggles on offense in right field (before Bernadina's recent explosion), and some learning moments for Desmond.  This team has manufactured runs with stolen bases and smart baseball, and some other elements of the game that do not show up in the stat sheet, but maybe the winning record is driven by pitching?

The discrepency between the staff's ranks in peripherals and wins is shocking, and seems to be an indicator of things turning south at some point.  With Nats starters AND relievers putting men on base at a higher clip than most NL teams, the Nats have been getting lucky in some of these wins, especially at the reliever position.  Clippard's 7-1 record ande Capps' 14 saves are SO far above the mean that the rate just cannot continue for the sake of their arms. 

Clippard's season has been a revelation on so many levels.  He is the team leader in K's with 30, and his K/9 rate is 10.80 (even if his BB/9 rate is 2.50 - a tad high).  4 of Clip's 7 wins have been in one run games and the other 3 are in 2 run games.  Aside from those 7 wins, Clippard has 7 holds.  That is 14 games where he has impacted the wins of the team, and joila, 14 saves for Capps. Capps' 14 saves earned him the reliever of the month in April (just ahead of Clippard) and his 0.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP have helped stabilize this team in a position where they were extremely vulnerable last year (Hanrahan's 1-2 record with 3 blown saves, 3 saves and 6.87 ERA at this point last year is a shocking indicator).

Remember at the start of the season when Buster Olney said the Nationals had one of the hardest schedules and this could be a rough start? 20-17 is not only a good record, but it is a major accomplishment for this team, especially given the less than stellar stats.  Compare and contrast the attitudes, confidence, body language and overhaul mood of this team and its 20 wins compared to the 2009 team at this point.  Night and day.  While the stats may show a team that is getting lucky or getting by with some level of guile, the only stats that matter are wins and the # of times that Silver Elvis wig is being worn. 

      

With the recent extension to Ryan Howard, I thought it fitting to look at our power hitting first basemen and assess whether or not it was time the Nationals extended the Adam Dunn Experience. I know some of you will read this headline and think I have lost my mind, and I am sure that same group of you are already going to Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus to tell me about Dunn's UZR/150 rating, VORP and WAR or the prodigious speed at which power hitters breakdown.  I know the stats and the comps, as I have read them too, but there are other elements about Adam Dunn that I feel are critical in order for the Nats to keep the competitive edge over the next 3-5 seasons.

Dunn is a complicated player.  On one hand, you have a guy whose career averages (over 8 seasons) are 38 HR and 97 RBI to go with 98 runs and a .383 OBP offset by a .249 batting average and 180 strikeouts a year.  He is a player who is so well suited to the AL with his -10.8 UZR/150 and his -20.8 UZR/150 at first base, yet has never played one game for an AL team. 

What is not complicated is that Adam Dunn possesses a skill that very few players in baseball have: the ability to mash a baseball 400 feet 40 times a year AND have the ability to draw over 100 walks.  His presence as the #4 hitter in the lineup makes the #3 and #5 hitter that much better, and his ability to punish pitchers and change the trajectory of a game is a rare gift. It is no surprise that with Dunn in the lineup, Ryan Zimmerman enjoyed his best season to date.

More important to the Nationals than Dunn's rare abilities and his willingness to play in DC is that there currently is no player in their system who possesses the raw power that Dunn portrays on an annual basis. The Phillies #4 hitter, Ryan Howard, just signed a $125MM extension to stay in Philly until 2016 with an annual salary of roughly $25MM.  Mark Teixeria's deal in New York nets him over $20MM a year, and the rumors around Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are in the $200MM range.  In short, to get a 40 HR guy, you have to pay top dollar. Even Carlos Pena from the Rays is expected to sign worth over $10MM a year, and he lacks the consistent output that Dunn has showed over 8 years.

To view how these players stack up, based on their career averages pro-rated for 162 games:

Howard and Fielder are in a class by themselves, and Gonzalez plays in a pitcher's park, but outside of these three (and the vaunted Pujols who is out of this planet), Dunn's production is on par and represents a much cheaper option.

      

Okay, I do not have the fancy tool of PECOTA like the folks at BP have, but I am going to gaze into my rose-colored crystal ball and lay out my projections for the Nationals in 2010.  I do think this year will be a great leap forward, even if the record does not go above .500, and that the gains made this year will reap huge dividends over the next couple of years.  Without further adieu:

• Ryan Zimmerman will be right around last year's totals with another .285, 30 HR, 100 RBI season.
• Ian Desmond will struggle at times, hitting around .255-.260, but he will show flashes of power and will end the season with 14 HR and 55 RBIs.
• Nyjer Morgan will come down to earth, hitting around .280, but his 55 stolen bases and 100+ runs will make people talk about he and Jacoby Ellsbury in the same tone.
• The Nats will miss Guzman's bat in the #2 hole at times.
• Pudge will do a great job of managing the pitchers, but will have a tough year at the plate, hitting around .250.
• Josh Willingham will continue to amaze and the Nationals will only trade him for a legit piece.  Wherever he ends up, his totals will be 25 HR, 75 RBI.
• Though it will be hard to tell bullpen statistics, Tyler Clippard will be one of the most important Nationals pitchers, and will mask Matt "The Cardiac Closer" Capps' play. 
• Lannan will finally have a wining record as an ace (13-11), and Marquis will get a lot of decisions (12-12), but it will be the performances of 2 mid-summer call ups and a youngster (Strasburg, Wang, Stammen) that will have fans buzzing (combined record of 29-17).
• Garret Mock will get sent down (1-4 record) and Drew Storen wil get called up later in the year.
• Craig Stammen will be John Lannan, Jr. (8-8 record)
• Adam Dunn will re-sign with the team.
• The rotation the last day of the year will be Lannan, Marquis, Strasburg, Wang, Zimmermann, and the Nats will be a trendy pick for the 2011 Wild Card.
• The final record will be 71-91, a +12 from 2009, but they will lose the first game of the year.

      

As Hendo pointed out yesterday, the Nationals added some depth their squad with the recent signings Tyler Walker, Chris Duncan and Chuck James.  While the names may ring a bell, none of these signings really moves the Nationals forward on a starting nine basis.  These moves were about depth and flexibility, especially with the Chris Duncan signing.  With a proven MLB outfielder in the fold (sorry Justin Maxwell and Roger Bernadina) the Nationals can have a backup plan if/when Dukes collapses or if they decide to move Josh Willingham.  If neither of those happen, well then they have a smart ball player off the bench.

With Chuck James, I hope that he is going to AAA and that this is not an option for the major-league rotation.  Yes, James was a good pitcher a couple of years ago, and even one that I thought they should sign on the cheap, but with some healthy 200+ inning names still on the market (Jarrod Washburn, Jon Garland), the Nationals should be looking to someone of their caliber instead for the starting rotation.

I have faith still that Rizzo and Co. are working all the angles to get Hudson in town as well adding that second pitcher, and if so, these depth moves will look great come mid-season. 

      

Well, the winter meetings are drawing to a close, but that does not mean the Hot Stove is closing...quite the contrary.  The Nationals were active and made some moves off their shopping list, but still have a ways to go.  Below is a recap of all that happened this week at the Winter Meetings:

• Nats sign Pudge Rodriguez to 2 year $6M deal
• Nats sign Jerry Owens to a minor league contract
• Nats trade the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft to the Yankees for relief pitcher, Brian Bruney.  That pick became Jamie Hoffman
• The Nationals are still very involved in the Jason Marquis sweepstakes
• Mike Rizzo expressed interest in starting pitcher John Garland
• Some talk about Livo coming back
• Nats may non-tender Mike McDougal
• Former minor league pitcher of the year, Zech Zincola, was claimed in the Rule 5 draft.
• Rizzo and company expressed their reluctance in trading Josh "The Hammer" Willingham
  

I think Rizzo and company did a good job establishing their credibility and not coming off desperate.  Rizzo has a vision for this team, and he is working the phones and the agents to try and see that happen.  Did we overpay for Pudge? Yes, but can that HOF catcher be a help to a young pitching staff? Absolutely.  So what is next?

• Shore up middle infield - Do not be surprised to see Rizzo take a hard look at second base
• Starting Pitching - the big area.  I fully expect two starting pitchers and neither of them being Livo.  I am expecting Garland and Marquis in uniform  next year with an off chance of Smoltz. 
• Relief help - Bruney is a start, but I would like one more arm.  The bullpen looked stronger with Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard in the second half, and adding Bruney is great, just think we are one more situational arm away from having a decent bullpen.

We shall see what happens next....

      

103 Losses.  That is worse than last year by one game.  That is worse than the season that appeared to be the pinnacle of failure.  The Nationals have now lost 100+ games for two seasons in a row, which by my cursory analysis has not happened AT ALL in the last 20 years. More on that later...

So in a season of disaster, was there any glimmers? Anything that can be built upon for next year? Well in that vein, of course.   There really were some nice statistical standouts in 2009 that should bode well for the upcoming season:

• Ryan Zimmerman: .292, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 178 hits, 110 runs.  OBP of .364, slugging of .565 - nice.
• Adam Dunn: a whopping .928 OPS with 38 HR, 105 RBI, a .268 BA, and a .398 OBP. 
• Josh Willingham: 24 HR in 427 AB's
• Nyjer Morgan: before the injury, .351 Batting Average, 24 Stolen bases
• John Lannan:  3.88 ERA and almost just as important 206 innings pitched
• Tyler Clippard: 41 appearances, 2.69 ERA in relief, and a 9.99 K/9 ratio
• Sean Burnett: 33 apearances and a 3.20 ERA

Those were silver linings, and thats a lot more silver linings than a 103 loss team should have.  Having a starter throw 200 innings with a sub 4.00 ERA and still go 9-13 is indicative of larger problems, but this team has some pieces to cobble together for next year.

The shopping list is always the same.  Pitching, middle infield.  With Livan wanting to come back, the Nats have an easy win to give them some innings, and can hopefully find one more veteran starter, like a Randy Wolf-type pitcher (Jon Garland, Doug Davis) to fill in for a year, and then can hopefully figure out the mess in the infield.

While Guzman puts up nice numbers, there is something there that appears to rub Rizzo and Co. the wrong way.  He looks apathetic, and I always feel like his numbers are hollow.  Is Ian Desmond the answer at this stage in his young career?  Who knows.  Is it worth Orlando Hudson who was benched in favor of our own Ronnie Belliard in LA?  Not sure.  But some stability needs to show up defensively. 

More updates soon

      

The last eight days have been great, as the Nationals homestand sweep was a high point in the season, and something that seems to have lifted the spirits of the team and its fan base.  Eight games into 162 is a small sample, so to truly understand the shift in this team, lets first examine how they have played since the All-Star Break, a 25-game sample size.

It is quite easy to say that this team is persevering right now because of the insane hot streak and stability of the 1-5 lineup.  Willingham, Dunn and Zimmerman have been lights out as a stabilizing force, while Nyjer Morgan and Guzman have been energetic and have given 3-5 ample opportunities to be productive.  BUT, what is really telling is how our pitching, the Achilles heel of the 2009 Nationals, has been our anchor for the last 25 games.  Below is where the Nationals ranked in the NL (16 being last, 1 being first) before and after the all-star break and how pitching has really brought this team forwards. 

In that 25 game span, the Nationals are 14-11 and exude a confidence rarely found on a team with that lopsided a W-L record. One has to ask themselves, how would this season have been different if the bullpen had been more productive? If Willingham started from Day One?  If...if...if.

This last win streak has been amazing, and what is more comforting is that it is not out of thin air.  This team has the capability to be a strong team in 2011, and this run will provide them with more confidence when they face adversity in the future.