The Nationals are sitting at 8-8, and based on everyone's comments on this team, they are playing spirited baseball, with better pitching and much improved defense.  As fans, we feel like this has been a rebound of sorts, yet we have strayed from the empirical data to prove it.  Let's jump in to the data 16 games in and examine the biggest area of improvement: Pitching, both starting and bullpen.

On the surface, the Nationals 5.87 ERA ranks 14th in the NL, their 5 QS rank 14th, and the .279 BAA ranks 13th, yet when you look at the gamelogs, it is the tale of two teams in their wins and losses, and much of that is driven by their 6 games against the Phreaking Phillies.

In the Nats 8 wins:

• The ERA is 3.13 and the WHIP is 1.34
• The Bullpen has 4 of the 8 wins
• Matt Capps has 7 saves in 7 opportunities with a 1.08 ERA
• Livan is 2-1 (all 3 QS) and posted a 0.00 ERA in his two wins
• Craig Stammen (1-0) saw his one win go 8 innings with 2 ER for another QS
• John Lannan (1-1) has had three starts of 5 innings or more, with his lone QS ending in a no decision, and his 5 inning performance of 3 runs gave the team a win against the Mets. 
• In that Mets win, Tyler Clippard pitched 3 innings and struck out 7, and for the season, Clippard is 3-0 with a 0.77 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP and 14 K's in 11.2 innings.

In the Nats 8 losses:

• The ERA is 8.22 and the WHIP is 2.35
• The Bullpen has 2 of the 8 losses with recently deposed pitcher Jason Bergmann going 0-1 with a 15.43 ERA in 4 appearances (covering only 2 innings).
• Scott Olsen, working his way back, has gone 0-1 with an 11.74 ERA in two starts.  His ND in Philly was a shame, he pitched well, but his implosion against Colorado was just that (2 IP, 7 hits, 6 runs).
• John Lannan's one loss was to the Phillies (which deserves a pass), but posting a 3.2 IP 7 hits, 5 runs is never good.
• Jason Marquis has gone 0-3 with a 20.52 ERA

The Nationals have shown that when their starting pitching settles down, the bridge of Clippard, Bruney and Capps (for 3 to 4 innings) is a trustworthy and effective one.  At this point last year, the Nationals were 3-13 with an ERA of 7.37, and the bullpen was 0-5 with 3 blown saves in 5 chances.  This year, 8-8 with a 5.87 ERA, and a 4-2 bullpen with 7 saves in 7 chances.

Can the Nationals keep this up? Who knows, but since their starting pitching has been a little erratic, there is hope that they stabilize, and if they do, they know there are some good arms in the bullpen to keep them in games and keep them competitive.

      

My first thought is we need a bigger sample size.  I have not really got a solid feel of this team's identity yet, as the 7 games have given us some horrible starting pitching, but as I said in my last post, starting pitch in April is tough to gauge.  So if starting pitching is hard to gauge, what should we analyze?  Ian Desmond? Zimmerman's hammy? Defense? Bullpen? Away we go:

• I think you have to be happy with Ian Desmond so far.  Sure he is hitting .190 with 4 hits in 21 at bats with 8 strikeouts, but I like what he brings to the park every day.  When he makes contact, there is a sense of purpose to him as he moves around the bases and he seems to really want this.  That "measure" does not show up anywhere except in the clubhouse, and I have to think they like watching Desmond show up every day. 
• Zimm's hammy is a total April decision.  We have 155 more games to play and he will be fine. Nothing to worry about.  But, if he were hurt, we would be screwed.  I am sure Adam Dunn and his 2 hits feel the same way.
• Defense - how about Nyjer's steady play and Willie's catch, eh? So far, nothing horrible to report.  Desmond has booted some balls as can be expected, but I am not hearing the Keystone Cops sounds like I did last year with Milledge.
• Bullpen - can you say Tyler Clippard!! Nice.  I like Clippard, and I think any game where we can go Clippard, Bruney, Capps, we are in better shape than when we deviate and go Batista and Bergmann.

Again a small sample size and right now Marquis looks awful, but the way I "feel" about this team is that there is less of the cartoonish play that plagued the first month of last year.  In every game, a team is going to lose, and realistically, it is how you lose that really makes people take notice, and the Nats found some awful ways to lose last year.  This year? Hey, getting out slugged by the Phillies is not embarrassing.  Let's hope the next sample size gives us more to analyze.

      

I am sure most Nats fans are waking up this morning, realizing the team is on the verge of being swept, and uttering the the phrase, "Here We Go Again".  While there were some tough pills to swallow the last couple days, I want fans to pause for a minute, take a deep breath, and let this fact wash over you: The Phillies are one of the top 3 teams in baseball, if not the best.  Okay, let that sink in and remember that by best cases this Nationals team is still projected to lose 90 games. Okay, let's get to some of the facts.

• Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. Sure, he does not have the hardware of Timmy in SF, but he played for the Blue Jays in the AL East and had to face the Yankees and Red Sox, and owned them.  Halladay is that good.  And we got to face him on opening day, not fair.  Pass for the Nationals.
• Pitching in April is pretty horrible.  In 2009, only 6 teams in all of MLB posted an ERA under 4.00 in the month of April compared to 9 in May, 14 in June and 12 in July.  The reality is that pitchers are not sharp in the first couple of outings.
• Hitting is more stable in the first few months due to less sharp pitching.  7 teams in 2009 posted batting averages less than .250 in April, with 6 in May, and 11 in June.  Hitters are more locked in historically than pitchers who are still working out the kinks.

Now on to the Phillies:

• Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez and Carlos Ruiz hit 1-8.  That is impressive.
• In 2009, Philly ranked #3 in MLB and #1 in NL in least amount of bats between HR's with 24.9.
• With runners in scoring position, Philly ranked #1 in the NL in slugging percentage and OPS.

The result: do not put runners on base for the Phillies, because they will kill you.

The Nas have not looked great so far, but there were some bright spots last night (Ian Desmond's HR and double against Cole Hamels) to look forward to.  The reality is that John Lannan and Jason Marquis will come around and settle in, and this team will look better, but if by looking better you think they can take Philly to the brink, then hold your breath. 

      

Try writing a non-Stephen Strasburg story for tomorrow and see if anyone reads it.  Well, not to fan the flames of expectations, but Strasburg's outing could not come at a better time, as the Nationals pitching has looked suspect at best so far.  So far in Spring Training, the Nats pitching has given up 67 runs on 91 hits.  That is horrible. Is it the end of the world? No, it is just exhibition, but here are some causes for concern:

1. With the WAPO story on mechanics and his rough outing yesterday, fans have to be worried about Olsen, but remember, he had not pitched in a year. He was happy with his performance but did acknowledge he needs to build up arm strength.
2. Jason Marquis struggled, but I am not worried.  Same with John Lannan.  Still would be nice to see an effortless outing, you know, a little something for the effort.
3. Shawn Estes and Tyler Walker = "former Nationals spring training invitees".
4. Matt Capps.  Let's hope he does not equal Joel Hanrahan.  Has not looked good yet.
5. Colin Balester.  Sorry Bally, you are having a rough go of things right now, which has to mean you are not making the club....how many options does he have left?

The good news? Not much, but simply:

1. Drew Storen.  Flat out awesome. 2 games. 2 innings. 1 K. 0 Hits.
2. Matt Chico - 2 great innings in a recovery game.
3. Strasburg's buzz.  Let's hope the debut tomorrow stays in this "good" column and not the bad.

Pitching is the key, and right now, I am a little freaked out.

      

Well, the winter meetings are drawing to a close, but that does not mean the Hot Stove is closing...quite the contrary.  The Nationals were active and made some moves off their shopping list, but still have a ways to go.  Below is a recap of all that happened this week at the Winter Meetings:

• Nats sign Pudge Rodriguez to 2 year $6M deal
• Nats sign Jerry Owens to a minor league contract
• Nats trade the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft to the Yankees for relief pitcher, Brian Bruney.  That pick became Jamie Hoffman
• The Nationals are still very involved in the Jason Marquis sweepstakes
• Mike Rizzo expressed interest in starting pitcher John Garland
• Some talk about Livo coming back
• Nats may non-tender Mike McDougal
• Former minor league pitcher of the year, Zech Zincola, was claimed in the Rule 5 draft.
• Rizzo and company expressed their reluctance in trading Josh "The Hammer" Willingham
  

I think Rizzo and company did a good job establishing their credibility and not coming off desperate.  Rizzo has a vision for this team, and he is working the phones and the agents to try and see that happen.  Did we overpay for Pudge? Yes, but can that HOF catcher be a help to a young pitching staff? Absolutely.  So what is next?

• Shore up middle infield - Do not be surprised to see Rizzo take a hard look at second base
• Starting Pitching - the big area.  I fully expect two starting pitchers and neither of them being Livo.  I am expecting Garland and Marquis in uniform  next year with an off chance of Smoltz. 
• Relief help - Bruney is a start, but I would like one more arm.  The bullpen looked stronger with Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard in the second half, and adding Bruney is great, just think we are one more situational arm away from having a decent bullpen.

We shall see what happens next....