Finally. Middle Infield has been an absolute bane to this team's existence, yet with the emergence of two rookies, the Nationals now seem to have an infield they can build around for the next 5-6 years.  Regardless of who plays second or who plays short, Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa possess the hitting skills, the defensive athleticism, the maturity and the adaptability to play whatever role they are required for a long time.

Every Nationals fan has watched with great awe the heralded debut of Danny Espinosa, but what folks may not realize is that in the last month of the season, Ian Desmond has gone from a slumping, frustrated shortstop to a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate.  Hitting .289 with 9 HR and 58 RBI in his rookie season, a deeper look tells a greater story of Desmond's impact.

• With runners in scoring position (RISP), Desmond is hitting .292 in 113 at bats with 48 RBI.
• Leading off an inning? .321 with an .884 OPS, including a .384 OBP
• Bases jacked? in 9 AB's, hitting .556 with a 1.056 OPS.
• No one on base? .282 with 9 home runs (all his homeruns actually).
• Runners on? 14 stolen bases vs 4 caught stealing.  Des is moving himself into scoring position for the big guns.
• Hitting #2 in the lineup - a huge task for a rookie - he is hitting .357 in 140 AB's.

By all accounts, Desmond's numbers show a patience at the plate, a dedication to doing what is asked of him (no homeruns and low caught stealing #'s show he is not pressing or trying to do much Mr. Morgan), and a maturity in being able to handle the pressure.  More importantly, it has cemented the Nationals lineup by allowing them to hit Desmond #2 going into 2011.

Danny Espinosa presents a small sample size, but from what everyone has seen, this kid is a true gamer.  His production so far came from the #8 spot which is where they would logically play him next year, much as they tried with Desmond this year.  With his speed and power, Espinosa could really be a great #2 with Desmond perhaps hitting leadoff. 

The parlor game of who plays where is difficult with the looming free agency of Dunn, but let's assume for a moment that a power hitting 1B will be there (Dunn, Pena, Huff, etc) and that Willingham returns from his knee injury okay.  This will be my projected lineup:

CF - Bernadina

SS - Desmond

3B - Zimmerman

1B - Power Hitting First Baseman

LF - Willingham

RF - Morse

C - Pudge/Ramos

2B - Espinosa

      

It is official. Harper is signed. Sigh of relief, right? Harper is sure to be an impact player in this league, and as team officials say, a cornerstone, but limiting your excitement to the signing of Harper alone is missing the major accomplishments the Nationals have achieved in the draft over the last handful of years.

While teams in the past spent their resources on free agents, many teams like the Nationals now are investing big money in draft picks and player development.  While big budget teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers are still competitive, lower-revenue teams like the Rays and Marlins have made runs, while mid-level conservative teams, like the Twins, Braves and Phillies have built strong, young, competitive teams as a model to follow.

Looking at the Nationals youth movement over the past few years, there are a handful of players who have either reached the majors or on the precipice. The list below takes a look at the players who have made it to the show, while also looking at what players from the 2009 draft and 2010 draft have accomplished.  Also included is 2010 propsect trades:

• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
• Jordan Zimmermann, SP
• John Lannan, SP
• Craig Stammen, SP/RP
• Ross Detwiler, SP
• Ian Desmond, SS
• Roger Bernadina, OF
• Danny Espinosa, SS/2B

• Wilson Ramos – C (#58 overall prospect, acquired for Matt Capps, RAKING at AAA)
• Tanner Roark - SP (young pitcher acquired for Christian Guzman)
• Ryan Tatusko - SP (young pitcher acquired for Christian Guzman)
• Bryce Harper – RF*
• Sammy Solis – SP*
• AJ Cole – SP*
• Rick Hague – SS (.306 BA in 21 games @ Hagerstown)
• David Freitas – C (.327 BA and .905 OPS in 45 games in Vermont)
• Randolph Oduber – OF (.376 BA, 1.050 OPS in 30 games in Vermont)
• 7 position players playing in Vermont

• Stephen Strasburg – SP (5-3 with 2.97 ERA and 12.2 K/9 in 11 starts; 7-1 with 1.30 ERA and 10.6 K/9 in minors)
• Drew Storen – CP (36 games, 2 saves, 3-2, 2.61 ERA; 41 games, 28 finished, 2-1, 15 saves, 1.68 ERA in minors)
• Daniel Rosenbaum – SP (8-7, 2.19 ERA in 30 starts).
• Justin Bloxom – RF (.309 BA, 11 HR, 70 RBI @ Hagerstown)
• Jeffrey Kobernus – 2B (.279 BA, 21 SB’s @ Hagerstown)
• Trevor Holder and AJ Morris – pitching at A ball with sub 4.00 ERA. 

The Nationals system has already produced some solid homegrown talent that has allowed them to play competitively in 2010 for the first time in a few years. With the emergence of the 2009 and 2010 class, the Nationals core talent could look like this compared to these dominant teams of the past few years:

• Nationals (Zimmerman, Strasburg, Harper, Zimmermann, Desmond, Espinosa, Storen, Ramos)
• Yankees – (Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Hughes, Chamberlain, Gardner, Cano)
• Phillies – (Howard, Utley, Hamels, Rollins)
• Rays – (Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Shields, Price)
• Twins –(Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn)
• Braves - (Heyward, Hanson, Medlen, McCann)

Where the Nationals need to be careful is an over reliance on the youth movement.  All of the teams listed here have balanced their young players with solid, if not spectaculuar free agents and crafty veterans.  Players like Adam Dunn or a Carl Crawford fit the bill nicely, and with the Nationals spending wisely on prospects, they have cash left over to fill in the gaps with free agents, rather than fill the team with free agents.  The next few years should be interesting.

      

In discussing the prospect of Danny Espinosa being a part of the Nationals infield in the near future, many readers echoed a sentiment that has been gaining a lot of traction lately: Move Ian Desmond off of shortstop.  This issue is not a new one, as Espinosa is an accomplished short stop in his own right, and may push Des off the position due to his own prowess.  However, Desmond's error rates have not helped his cause.

Currently, Desmond has more errors at shortstop than any other NL SS with 26, and his .941 fielding percentage is also the worst.  Desmond has also made some questionable plays that do not show up in the error column but are bad judgment plays (anyone remember the double steal mishap against the Braves?).In determining Desmond's proficiency at shortstop, I turned to the guru's at Fangraphs to define the terms that they use to assess defensive value and efficiency:

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR), which looks at how often the player converts the out on balls inside of a pre-determined zone for his position

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

Here is how some notable shortstops rank in those areas in 2010:

Desmond’s range factors and revised range indicates he is by no means the worst defensive shortstop, even among a handful of players who have been All-Stars at their position due to their offensive prowess. Desmond has good range at the position, not yet at the elite of Furcal and Alexei Ramirez, but not near the nadir of Jeter and Hanley Ramirez.  Desmond’s fault lies in his error rate, which causes his other peripherals to nosedive. While Jeter may have bad range, he is smart in that he knows his limits and does not put his team at risk. Desmond, as a rookie, needs to learn the smart play versus the athletic play. If Desmond cannot keep his error rates down, a position change may be in the works. 

It is not unheard of for Desmond to move to second base in favor of Espinosa when the time is right, as Espinosa has cut his error rate down from 23 in A ball to 15 in AA. While he too will have some growing pains, I agree with the readers who feel he may be the more natural SS.  

Either way, Desmond’s bat and his athletic ability do play in the majors. He has been a good contributor on offense, and his energy has been a good spark for this team. A move to second base at age 24/25 would allow him to maximize his range, limit his throwing errors by being closer to the first base bag and highlight his offense in a position with limited pop.

      

At this time last year, we would have laughed at the thought of Ian Desmond as the everyday shortstop, but 100 games into his rookie season, Desmond has shown that he can play, despite some rookie struggles.  Is it also the time to check in on 23 year old prospect Danny Espinosa?

Espinosa struggled at the beginning of the season with his average, but after a three homer game against Binghamton, Espinosa is hitting .262 with 18 HR and 54 RBI out of the middle infield position. To be sitting at .262 at this stage has shown that Espinosa has been playing at a torrid pace for the last few months.   With Guzman traded and Kennedy not long for the position, the time is right for Espinosa to test out the middle infield position.

The debate will range as to who plays short between Desmond and Espinosa--Espinosa, a short stop at short stop University (Long Beach State, home of Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby and Evan Longoria) has better range at the position, but Desmond has a cannon for an arm.  The Nats should take the final month of the season to see what Espinosa can do and who is better suited at each position.

What are your thoughts?

      

In case you live on Mars, the Nationals arrived in a very big way last week.  While the week began with the Bryce Harper draft, that became almost a footnote after Hurricane Strasburg destroyed every Pirate and Indian en route to the NL Player of the Week award. While Strasburg won a great individual acheivement, the award and the wins (2-0) marked the arrival of an important era in Washington--the era of respectability.

At 31-33 going into Tuesday night's game, the Nationals were on the precipice before Strasburg arrived.  Mike Rizzo's overhaul of this team is evident not only in the quality of play, but in the hustle and quality of people.  While National fans have seen this and talked about it for awhile, the current play and growth of this team has caught the attention of Jayson Stark and other writers from outside the DC area, and all are in agreement: The "plan" is no longer a far away thing.  The Nationals are built to compete, and to compete right now. 

The Nationals have an unreal core that includes future (and current) stars at the MLB level: Stephen Strasburg, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Drew Storen, Jordan Zimmermann, and Tyler Clippard.  As far as players in the minors 1-2 years away? Power hitting catcher Derek Norris; strong glove play at second from Danny Espinosa; rehabbing pitching (mentally and physically) in Ross Detwiler and Craig Stammen.  The elephant in the room? Bryce Harper.  If they sign him, he is 2 years away with that bat.  That is an amazing core of talent on par with some of the best young core in baseball (Rays). 

That amazing core of talent does not even include pending free agent Adam Dunn, who has expressed his desire to finish his career in DC; Josh Willingham, signed through 2011 and hitting at career levels; Pudge Rodriguez, a revelation at and behind the plate and signed through 2011; Nyjer Morgan, the energetic center fielder who is having an off year, but who captivated the team in 2009; and Roger Bernadina and Mike Morse, both solid outfielders whose rotation of good defense and timely hitting have helped make that platoon work.

Controlling young talent is a key to keeping a team competitive, but the other side of the coin is that they have to be productive. No position is harder to groom than pitching. Ross Detwiler (#6 overall pick) and Craig Stammen have struggled early in their tenure, but the hope is they can ease into more of a permanent back-end of the rotation role with less pressure.  On the other hand, young pitchers like Clippard and Storen have helped solidify the bullpen and turned a weakness into an area of strength relatively quickly.  With that foundation in the later innings, young pitching can hopefully settle down.  Rizzo has also built quite a stable of available arms who, while not to be counted on for 30 starts, have helped spell some pitchers as they develop.  Recent draft picks Sammy Solis and AJ Cole (if they sign), would add to that stable and challenge to join the rotation in 2-3 years.

On the offensive side of the ball, young talent like Ian Desmond,  Roger Bernadina have shown that they can play everyday and contribute.  With a 8.9 VORP and 1.3 WAR, Desmond has proved to be the shortstop of the future.  Bernadina's numbers are much more modest, but with a 4.2 VORP and 0.4 WAR as a replacement player, he has done his job and then some.  Both have shown the ability to grow in future years and provide more for this team.

With solid production from their core 3-4-5 hitters, timely production from their 6-7 hitters (Pudge and Desmond are crushing with RISP), a solid relief core holding leads and getting saves, an elite starting pitching option (Strasburg) that can rival anyone in the league in two years, plus a solid sidekick (Zimmermann) whose pitching rates as a rookie were better than Clayton Kershaw and Tommy Hanson, the Nationals now seem 1-2 pieces away from contending for a playoff spot on an annual basis. 

Scary, isn't it?

      

As baseball gets into the 1/4 turn, writers from all over the sports world are calling the Nationals the surprise team of the season.  After two straight 103 loss seasons, this team's record is starting to resemble a contending team that may be buyers at trade deadline and also has a plethora of intriguing options joining the major league ranks in the early summer.  So with a respectable record for any team not named the Yankees, how are the Nationals doing it? Are they statistically that much better than last year? Are they more clutch than other teams? The answers may surprise you.  

After the doubleheader loss on Saturday, here is where the Nationals rank in the NL in terms of offense:

The offensive production is solid, but not spectacular, and is difficult to draw inferences based on their rank.  There have been clutch moments, such as Zim's HR against the Phillies, or Pudge's 4-4 game, or a Willingham homerun to take the lead, but those are sprinkled in with some 0-5 moments, struggles on offense in right field (before Bernadina's recent explosion), and some learning moments for Desmond.  This team has manufactured runs with stolen bases and smart baseball, and some other elements of the game that do not show up in the stat sheet, but maybe the winning record is driven by pitching?

The discrepency between the staff's ranks in peripherals and wins is shocking, and seems to be an indicator of things turning south at some point.  With Nats starters AND relievers putting men on base at a higher clip than most NL teams, the Nats have been getting lucky in some of these wins, especially at the reliever position.  Clippard's 7-1 record ande Capps' 14 saves are SO far above the mean that the rate just cannot continue for the sake of their arms. 

Clippard's season has been a revelation on so many levels.  He is the team leader in K's with 30, and his K/9 rate is 10.80 (even if his BB/9 rate is 2.50 - a tad high).  4 of Clip's 7 wins have been in one run games and the other 3 are in 2 run games.  Aside from those 7 wins, Clippard has 7 holds.  That is 14 games where he has impacted the wins of the team, and joila, 14 saves for Capps. Capps' 14 saves earned him the reliever of the month in April (just ahead of Clippard) and his 0.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP have helped stabilize this team in a position where they were extremely vulnerable last year (Hanrahan's 1-2 record with 3 blown saves, 3 saves and 6.87 ERA at this point last year is a shocking indicator).

Remember at the start of the season when Buster Olney said the Nationals had one of the hardest schedules and this could be a rough start? 20-17 is not only a good record, but it is a major accomplishment for this team, especially given the less than stellar stats.  Compare and contrast the attitudes, confidence, body language and overhaul mood of this team and its 20 wins compared to the 2009 team at this point.  Night and day.  While the stats may show a team that is getting lucky or getting by with some level of guile, the only stats that matter are wins and the # of times that Silver Elvis wig is being worn. 

      

The game is getting younger as teams are being smart about using the draft and locking up players at 20-22 years of age for the next 6-8 years.  This recent trend has not only lead to more young players blossoming, but has been a stabilizing force on some of the tradtionally weaker teams.  Before the Phils struck it rich, they became the losingest franchise in MLB history; now, they have been one of the Top 5 teams in the game for the last 4 years. In the past few years, the NL East has shown itself to be a division with good, young homegrown players, such as Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to name a few, and in 2009, Tommy Hanson, Jordan Zimmermann, J.A. Happ, and Chis Coghlan etched their name on that list. 

But 2010 and beyond is gong to make the East seem like a power conference.  When your division boasts the top prospects in the game in Stephen Strasburg and Jason Heyward, you might want to consider yourself spoiled, but when those two prospects are considered by many to be the top players for their respective sides of the field (hitting and pitching) that many scouts have seen in 10 years, you should consider yourself blessed.  When you stop and think of the talent on display (or soon to be on display) in 2010 in the NL East, you realize that this may be the best collection of young talent in the game today.  This list reflects players who are either in the majors or will be by June/July (and the #'s in parens reflect the ranking by Keith Law in his Top 100 List):

• Jason Heyward (#1) - OF, ATL: Heyward made the team out of free agency and as a 20 year old is posting (as of May 4th) a .273/.388/.580 line with 7 HR and 23 RBI.  As a 20 year old.  WOW.
• Stephen Strasburg (#2) - SP, WAS: Promoted to AAA on 5/4/10, his numbers in the minors are electric and should be in the rotation by June and shouldnt vacate the majors until about 2025.
• Michael Stanton (#5) - OF, FLA - Remember Miguel Cabrera? Yeah.  Kind of like that.  Comparisons like that abound when you hit 13 homeruns in 24 games as a 20 year old.  Just to let you know its not a fluke? 39 HR as an 18 year old in A ball; 29 HR's in AA and A+ as a 19 year old;
• Drew Storen (#92) - RP, WAS - Promoted to AAA Syracuse right before Strasburg, Storen is the closer of the future and could be a 7th inning guy in an about a month (especially with Bruney's struggles).
• Ian Desmond (NR) - SS, WAS: Seemed destined for flameout when JimBo made the Jeter comment, all Desmond has done since then is work, and its paying off.  While the J-Hey kid or Strasburg are the odds on favorite for the award, Desmond's steady play at SS as an everyday player keeps him in the top 5. 
• Ike Davis (#64) - 1B, NYM: When the Mets made Davis the 18th pick in the draft, many hoped he would replace Delgado, but no one figured this soon.  After posting a .309 average in 55 AA games in 2009 and a .364 average in 10 games at AAA, the Mets called him up, and thus far, his .292 average has stabilized the position and the lineup.
• Jenrry Mejia (#23) - RP, NYM: The youngest pitcher in baseball, Mejia has electric stuff, future top of the staff stuff, and rather than have him down in the minors, the Mets went Joba/Neftali Perez style and Mejia has proved up to the task: 1.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 13 games. The future is bright in whatever role he plays.
• Domonic Brown (#14) - OF, PHI - the "no way we are trading him" chip in the Halladay deal, the Phils hung on to Brown and are better off for it. The 22 year old is mashing with a .358 average and a 1.117 OPS in AAA, and seems likely to get a shot soon if Raul Ibanez keeps struggling.  The Phils have Jayson Werth as a free agent, and need to get Brown some reps to see what he can do.

These players may come up this year, may come up next year or the following, or may flame out completely.  Either way, Keith Law and many other scouts have tabbed these players in their Top 100 based on their age, position, player development, and progression to date.  If even half of these are accurate, this could make the NL East a scary place.

• Logan Morrison (#21) - 1B, FLA: Crushed minor league pitching in A ball and has posted a .983 OPS thus far in AAA.
• Derek Norris (#31) - C, WAS: Further from the majors as he tries to refine his play as a catcher, but his 23 HR, 84 RBI and .926 OPS as a 20 year old catcher cannot be ignored.
• Wilmer Flores (#41) - SS, NYM: 18 year old who can hit and field getting his time in the Sally League.  Reyes' uncertain future has some Met fans interested in Flores already.
• Arodys Vizcaino (#43) - P, ATL: Part of the Javy Vazquez trade, could be the big name in a couple of years.
• Matt Dominguez (#62) - 3B, FLA: Solid hitting 3B who is a plus fielder, should make the Marlins happy as he can add to an infield that will include Morrison and hopefully Hanley Ramirez.
• Freddie Freeman (#67) - 1B, ATL: 20 year old in AAA who is getting his swing down, hoping the power follows.  WIth the Braves starting Troy Glaus at 1B, Freeman could be a late season call up.
• Fernando Martinez (#73) - OF, NYM: Remember Martinez? The jewel of the Mets farm system, Martinez has looked lost at most points of his career, BUT, he is only 21!! The Mets hope a strong AAA season will help him get his game back in line after a .176 average in MLB last year.

Not all prospects work out as we know, but the odds are always that a handful will, even the ones you are not looking for (Tommy Hanson was a 22nd round pick), but this collection of talent is pretty impressive, and with players in the bigs right now demonstrating they belong, and players progressing through the minors with solid track records, the NL East should be a competitive division for a long time.

      

With the season 10 games old, the 2010 Nationals have displayed some statistics that are making Nats Town faithful optimistic and excited again; but it is the underlying play, presence and grit producing some of those statistics that make this writer excited about the season.  Whether it is a Willie Harris diving catch, or a 10 pitch at bat from Ian Desmond that does not show up in the box score, this team is not repeating the "Keystone Cops" moments that plagued the 2009 season.  So what is different?

The Bullpen

This team still has some issues with the Miguel Batista, Sean Burnett and recently DFA'd Jason Bergmann triumvurate, yet Tyler Clippard has been a revelation in middle/long relief.  Clippard's 2-0 record with 1.04 ERA in 8.2 IP and 9 K's has bolstered this team and helped the starting pitching get their sea legs.  Clippard is not alone either.  Brian Bruney has struggled thus far, but his struggles have been mitigated by Matt Capps' strong record thus far (1.42 ERA, 5 saves in 5 chances).  Already this team's ability to stay in games has given the offense the opportunity to do their thing...

Offense

It has not always been pretty, as the Nationals offense numbers have not looked great in the aggregate (.218 average and 26 runs, good for last and second to last in the NL), but for the last two games, the Nationals have been able to hang tough and post two come from behind wins.  Whether it was a pinch hit 2 run HR from Zim, or clutch at bats from Ian Desmond, Adam Kennedy and Wil Nieves, this team has been able to compete and display some grit in timely situations. Which brings me to my other non-statistical feel good story:

Ian Desmond

I know, his batting average numbers are not great right now (.207), but he is seeing 3.97 pitches per at bat, which is good for 4th among NL SS.  That type of patience at the plate is key to future growth at the position, and his two sacrifice hits show that he is willing to do right by the team (as evidenced by his perfect bunt with runners on first and second).  Hopefully Desmond's luck will turn around and that his average will start to move north of the Mendoza line.

All in all, there are things to look forward to with this team going forward.  If the starting pitching normalizes, as stats tend to do in May, then this team has the makings of a competitive team. 

      

My first thought is we need a bigger sample size.  I have not really got a solid feel of this team's identity yet, as the 7 games have given us some horrible starting pitching, but as I said in my last post, starting pitch in April is tough to gauge.  So if starting pitching is hard to gauge, what should we analyze?  Ian Desmond? Zimmerman's hammy? Defense? Bullpen? Away we go:

• I think you have to be happy with Ian Desmond so far.  Sure he is hitting .190 with 4 hits in 21 at bats with 8 strikeouts, but I like what he brings to the park every day.  When he makes contact, there is a sense of purpose to him as he moves around the bases and he seems to really want this.  That "measure" does not show up anywhere except in the clubhouse, and I have to think they like watching Desmond show up every day. 
• Zimm's hammy is a total April decision.  We have 155 more games to play and he will be fine. Nothing to worry about.  But, if he were hurt, we would be screwed.  I am sure Adam Dunn and his 2 hits feel the same way.
• Defense - how about Nyjer's steady play and Willie's catch, eh? So far, nothing horrible to report.  Desmond has booted some balls as can be expected, but I am not hearing the Keystone Cops sounds like I did last year with Milledge.
• Bullpen - can you say Tyler Clippard!! Nice.  I like Clippard, and I think any game where we can go Clippard, Bruney, Capps, we are in better shape than when we deviate and go Batista and Bergmann.

Again a small sample size and right now Marquis looks awful, but the way I "feel" about this team is that there is less of the cartoonish play that plagued the first month of last year.  In every game, a team is going to lose, and realistically, it is how you lose that really makes people take notice, and the Nats found some awful ways to lose last year.  This year? Hey, getting out slugged by the Phillies is not embarrassing.  Let's hope the next sample size gives us more to analyze.

      

I am sure most Nats fans are waking up this morning, realizing the team is on the verge of being swept, and uttering the the phrase, "Here We Go Again".  While there were some tough pills to swallow the last couple days, I want fans to pause for a minute, take a deep breath, and let this fact wash over you: The Phillies are one of the top 3 teams in baseball, if not the best.  Okay, let that sink in and remember that by best cases this Nationals team is still projected to lose 90 games. Okay, let's get to some of the facts.

• Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. Sure, he does not have the hardware of Timmy in SF, but he played for the Blue Jays in the AL East and had to face the Yankees and Red Sox, and owned them.  Halladay is that good.  And we got to face him on opening day, not fair.  Pass for the Nationals.
• Pitching in April is pretty horrible.  In 2009, only 6 teams in all of MLB posted an ERA under 4.00 in the month of April compared to 9 in May, 14 in June and 12 in July.  The reality is that pitchers are not sharp in the first couple of outings.
• Hitting is more stable in the first few months due to less sharp pitching.  7 teams in 2009 posted batting averages less than .250 in April, with 6 in May, and 11 in June.  Hitters are more locked in historically than pitchers who are still working out the kinks.

Now on to the Phillies:

• Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez and Carlos Ruiz hit 1-8.  That is impressive.
• In 2009, Philly ranked #3 in MLB and #1 in NL in least amount of bats between HR's with 24.9.
• With runners in scoring position, Philly ranked #1 in the NL in slugging percentage and OPS.

The result: do not put runners on base for the Phillies, because they will kill you.

The Nas have not looked great so far, but there were some bright spots last night (Ian Desmond's HR and double against Cole Hamels) to look forward to.  The reality is that John Lannan and Jason Marquis will come around and settle in, and this team will look better, but if by looking better you think they can take Philly to the brink, then hold your breath.