On June 7th, the Nationals will make the first pick in the draft for the second straight year, and hope to have the same great luck they had in 2009 with the #1 overall selection of Stephen Strasburg. What people forget now is that many questioned the wisdom in taking a pitcher #1 overall, rolling out a lot of statistics and history on the success rate ot pitchers, instead suggesting that hitters, even prep hitters, have a better success rate in the majors if they are taken #1 overall. Well in 2010, the Nationals now have a chance to do just that with the selection of 17-year-old phenom Bryce Harper. 

There is no shortage of opinion on Harper, whether it is on his famous eye-black, his decision to get a GED after his sophomore year in high school and enroll in JUCO, or the perception that he is a spoiled, pampered athlete that could be trouble to a franchise. When Harper stepped on the campus, all these questions existed, plus another more important question for MLB execs: Can this kid compete at this level, in a wood-bat league, facing 19-21 year old players on a daily basis as a 17 year old? While the other questions of character remain, Harper has answered every critic as to his talent. Can he hang? Yes, and then some. 

In 215 at bats with the College of Southern Nevada, Harper has a .442 batting average, 88 runs cored, 95 hits, 29 homeruns, 89 RBI, 22 doubles, 212 total bases, and a .986 slugging percentage. A .986 OPS would be unreal, but this is a .986 slugging percentage. The homeruns, RBI and slugging percentage are higher than any player at the Division One level. When it comes to the gift of baseball, Harper is truly blessed.  

His numbers in college show he can play, but what are scouts and executives opinions when it comes to Harper’s skill at the next level? What does his ceiling as a MLB player look like?  

Scouts use a 20-80 scale to assess a player’s hitting (contact), power, plate discipline, running speed, fielding range, arm strength and feel for the game. With such raw power at such a young age, Harper already possesses plus ratings in power (80) and arm strength (70), and these are the hallmarks he brings to the table. Can’t teach size? Can’t teach raw power either, and this kid has it in spades on both sides of he ball. 

The other parts of the game are more nuanced and will take time. ESPN’s Keith Law sees Harper at present having a 45 in hitting, but moving to a 60 in the future, combined with an 80 in power. Harper’s plate discipline right now is only a 40, but that is something with experience that will improve, as Law sees this moving to a 55. With a future score of 60,80,55, Harper will possess the skill to hit the good pitches, recognize a pitch he cannot handle and destroy any pitch close to his zone. Think A-Rod type power and plate coverage. It is not unreal to project a 40 homerun season with close to .300 average without Ryan Howard’s strikeout rates. 

On the fielding side, Harper will need work. If he wants to stay at catcher, he will need to work very hard on his receiving skills as well as his ability to call a game with an experienced staff (Strasburg, Zimmermann). That type of refining will work counter to his ability to move through the minors, since his bat is very mature and can play at multiple positions.  With the Nationals grooming Derek Norris for a career as a catcher, Harper may fill a void as a corner outfielder. This will allow him to utilize that rifle for an arm (reported 96 mph speed) to keep runners honest and hold them from taking the extra base. 

So, if Harper is as good as everyone says, how long will it take? Strasburg was a 21-year-old with collegiate and US National experience, so what can fans expect of Harper?

True, he is 17 and this will be a big adjustment, but is 17 that much different than 18? What is the difference between your senior prom and your junior prom? In actuality, Harper has seen older pitchers than most prep stars, and he is doing it in a more pressure-packed environment with a longer season. That being said, he will still be almost two full years away from an MLB debut from the time he signs. 

• Alex Rodriguez as an 18-year-old played 114 games between A, AA, and AAA and played 54 games in AAA as a 19-year-old before getting called up two games into his third year at age 20.
• Chipper Jones played 456 games of minor league ball from age 18-21 before getting called up to the Braves.
• And Ken Griffey Jr., the other 17-year-old draftee, played 129 games over two seasons in the minors between A-, A, AA before being called up as an 18-year-old (to the same team with his Dad—built in responsibility right there). 

All in all, Harper’s signing will be a long one, and he will probably miss valuable time, meaning 2010 will be a wash. Assuming that, Harper will play in the minors for all of 2011, all of 2012, and will be a June call up in 2013 as the Nationals starting right fielder.

      

Okay, here it is boiled down simply.  There is nothing wrong with the pitcher taken early.  They are not defects, or over-hyped, or products of a smaller talent pool.  They struggle because of two reasons:

1. Development of a pitcher takes longer than a hitter.
2. They make good scapegoats

We know, Stephen Strasburg throws 101 mph and then combines that with what Keith Law calls a "plus-plus" curveball clocking mid 80's.  That is just a totally unfair combination, but Greg Maddux DOMINATED at around 91 mph and Jamie Moyer has 250+ career wins throwing around mid 80's.  The reason is that success is just as much about command and knowledge of your opponent as it is about speed.

Some pitchers have pinpoint command early, like Jordan Zimmermann, and learn how to use that to their advantage over time.  Some have blazing stuff, and never quite harnass the command, like Daniel Cabrera.  But the true pitcher in baseball is the one who can use his speed, command, and intellect like a surgeon to keep the hitter guessing.  It is that last piece that makes a 91 mph Greg Maddux fastball feel like its coming in at 101. 

The other issue for these kids is development.  In the minors, players can develop those other picthes, they can learn how major league batters, using wood bats, approach the game.  They can talk to the guys who have grinded for years trying to succeed to learn the nuances of the game, and when they arrive at the majors, they are working with more than just skill--they have picked up the intellect a pitcher needs. 

Another reason these kids struggle is the simple fact that teams with #1 or #2 draft picks tend to, um, suck.  They lack disciplined, polished, veteran players.  They are usually young, toolsy, and trying to figure their way in the league.  So when a Jordan Zimmermann gets rocked in a game, and needs some advice on how to pitch to a veteran like Chipper Jones, who does he turn to? Shairon Martis? John Lannan? Ross Detwiler?  Oh, he can talk to the veteran hitters like Ryan Zimmerman? and Elijah Dukes, or career .240 hitter Adam Dunn?  You get the point.

Next time you watch a Yankee game on TV, watch who Joba Chamberlain talks to--CC Sabathia, and when in the pen, it was Rivera.  When he has questions about a hitter's approach?  Jeter? A-Rod, Tex?  Yeah, you get the point. 

On the issue of being a scapegoat, think of an NFL quarterback. That player requires a sound offensive line, good receivers, and a disciplined gameplan to be successful.  If those things do not happen, he is left holding the bag, and is often viewed as a disappointment.  Pitchers are in the same type of fishbowl.

Conversely, a rookie hitter is competing with himself, and can grind out a year and hit .270 with 15 HR and 60 RBI for a team with 100 losses and people will say that the player showed promise and had a good rookie year.  Even if they had a ton of errors in the field and might have cost the rookie pitcher some wins.  In case you were wondering who I had in mind, it was Lastings Milledge and John Lannan. 

Well, do not fret fans--Strasburg is the guy.  The rest of the draft sucks, seriously, the best hitter projects out as Hunter Pence-lite, and he is going #2.  So, feel better in that Boswell's view of hitters progressing better is really just theater, because even if that were 100% true, the hitters in this draft suck.  Let's just hope that we take the time to develop Strasburg, and not turn him into the sideshow act so many before him have been.

      

Okay, the draft is a month away, and I want to temper expectations a bit.  Stephen Strasburg, barring an A-rod/Manny disclosure or an injury, will be the Nationals # 1 pick.  The Nationals will pay what the demand is, and there will be some wrangling over where the "SS" Savior goes (AAA or MLB), but let me clear as to one thing:  Let's calm down for a minute.

I agree with Mike that there is a chance we can draft a guy who can change the fortunes of this organization, and I agree mightily with the point that teams who take transformational players can be in a position where they stop having to own the top pick (see Caps and Cavs, Ovie and King James).  But, as we sit through the NBA and NHL playoffs, let us NOT think that Strasburg can BE those players overnight.

Strasburg just threw a no-hitter in his last start that rivaled anything any scout has ever seen in terms of expectations, performance, pressure, etc.   Here is a kid in his last home start with every scout nitpicking and he throws a no-hitter.  Not just any no-hitter, but one with 17 K's and only 2 runners reaching base, both of whom got picked off.  Sick.  Absolutely sick.

BUT.........Do you know who was not hitting for the other team? Ryan Howard.  Chipper Jones.  David Wright. Unfair? Not really.  If fans start clamoring for SS to show up in the MLB from day one, this is who he faces from day one.  That is our division.  So remember that drafting a player and putting him right in the bigs means they face these guys day in and day out, and remember the draft is in July, and when/if he reports, it will be during critical/competitive times for the other teams (we are not making the playoffs).

All that being said, Strasburg grades out awesome and IS a transformational pick for this franchise.  If he makes the MLB roster in 2010 along with Jordan Zimmermann, Shairon Martis, John Lannan and Scott Olsen, then this is the makings of a good rotation, if not the best in the NL East in 2011.  And to ensure your expectations are in line with performance, here is my rough outline of projections for Strasburg:

2009: 1-3, 4.90 ERA

2010: 11-10, 4.10 ERA

2011: 15-9, 3.70 ERA

2012: 17-8, 3.60 ERA

2013: 17-8, 3.50 ERA