Many prognosticators viewed the 2010 season as one where the Nationals would begin to “turn it around.” With the arrival of Strasburg and the signings of Pudge, Jason Marquis, and Adam Kennedy, may felt the Nationals added the requisite veteran presence that this team needed. Yes, there were still question marks ahead, as there is with any team, but many felt that this could be the start of something.

At 49-63, the Nationals are not in contention and have suffered through some rough outings, but many around the league will tell you that this team is more competitive this year. Sure, Strasburg’s 5-2 record and overall demeanor gives the team a solid #1; Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham have turned into a legit 3-4-5; and Livan Hernandez’s trip to the Fountain of Youth has stabilized a rotation wracked by injuries; however, the biggest change from 2009 to 2010 has been the play of the bullpen, and their ability to keep the Nationals competitive.

In 2009, the bullpen was called upon to shoulder a heavy load, pitching 36.7% of all the innings played. In 2010, with a young staff and many emergency spot-starts (JD Martin, Luis Atilano) that percentage has been roughly the same, as this staff has handled 36.3% of the innings. Seeing that utilization, or rather over-utilization, was not what doomed last year’s ‘pen, let’s take a look at some of the glaring differences between the two years:

When looking at the reasons for the change, one has to look at the personnel and their new roles in 2010. While Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett were utilized in 2009, it is more fitting to compare them as closely as possible with their contemporaries from last year’s bullpen, Jason Bergmann and Ron Villone. Villone and Bergmann lead the Nationals in pitching appearances in 2009, just as Clipp and Burnett lead this year, and both represent a righty/lefty combination. When comparing closers, this analysis will go with the two who left the team mid-way through in Matt Capps vs. Joel Hanrahan. While Hanrahan lost his place as a closer, his statistics were emblematic of the problem in 2009.

Tyler Clippard vs. Jason Bergmann

  Sean Burnett vs. Ron Villone

  Matt Capps vs. Joel Hanrahan

The Nationals' bullpen in 2010 has shown greater levels of efficiency by leaps and bounds over 2009, with the most utilized pitchers cutting down siginifantly on the number of baserunners allowed per inning. With a young team that struggles defensively, the Nationals cannot give competitive teams extra base-runners at the end of games. In 2009, the bullpen consistently gave competitive teams extra chances, and as the numbers indicate, the trio of pitchers in 2009 did not have the stuff to put these hitters away. 

The 2010 bullpen, though not perfect, has shown they have better pitches, better control, and can shoulder the load of a young staff that cannot work deep into innings. This bears out not only in the numbers above, but in the Nationals record against the NL East (20-19). As the starting rotation gets stronger into 2011, the Nationals bullpen can now be counted on to be a stronger anchor moving forward. 

      

We learned this week of Drew Storen's promotion, and some comments by Mike Rizzo made it sound as if the Drew Storen train was making multiple stops this season.  So while we are enamored about Storen, who is in front of him in the minors, and what is the talent level of those players? Are we getting ready to see a bullpen rennaissance in DC?

• Drew Storen - as we know, Storen is the future Chief in DC.  #10 overall pick with a closer's mentality, as long as he does not hit a really rough patch in the minors, we may expect to see Storen in the setup role or closer's role as early as 2010. 
• Zechry Zinicola - ZZ is an interesting prospect for the Nats.  He responded well his rookie year in 2006 by pitching across 3 leagues, posting a 1.65 ERA and finishing 25 of the 27 games he pitched for a total of 12 saves.  2007 was a disaster in AA, and 2008 was rough when he made it to AAA.  This year ZZ has settled in nicely in AA Harrisburg, but the real test will be when he gets to AAA Syracuse.  ZZ's future could be a late inning guy in the mold of Saul Rivera.
• Bradley Meyers - Bradley Meyers is a starter, but with the plethora of starting pitching coming through the system, Meyers best chance to the bigs could come in terms of relief.  In 3 seasons of pitching, Meyers is 17-10 in 240 innings with 188 strikeouts. He is avering 7.0+ K's per 9 innings against only 2.7 BB's per 9.  The latter is why he could serve the big league club well as a spot starter or long reliever in the Tyler Clippard mold. 
• Clint Everts -ah, Clint.  Our former #6 pick.  Everts has electric stuff, but never found his niche as a starter.  Potomac moved him to the bullpen last year and it paid off.  Everts pitched well in Potomac in 2009, but then moved to Harrisburg and has continued to pitch well.  AAA seems a bit further off with an MLB role coming more in 2011 if any time. 

All in all, I do not think there is a prospect who will block Storen. There are some good talents, but each has a flaw that they have shown that will probably keep them out of the bigs right away.  ZZ has the best chance outside of Drew, but I see him in 2011 rather than 2010.  So, what would our full rotation look like in 2010?  This is what I project:

SP - Steven Strasburg

SP - John Lannan

SP - Jordan Zimmermann

SP - *Cheap Free Agent* - more on that in my next post

SP - Craig Stammen/Ross Detwiler/Colin Balester/Shairon Martis/Garrett Mock rotation

RP - Logan Kensing

RP - Tyler Clippard

RP - Sean Burnett

RP - *Free Agent*

SU - Drew Storen

CP - Mike McDougal

      

After a tough 11-3 loss, a loss that was the responsibility of the Nationals bullpen, Manny Acta again is looking for answers.  Now, this is not one of those blogs meant to trash the bullpen, a bullpen whose 3.50 ERA since May 19th had taken form and had buoyed the Nationals at times (sounds strange, but seriously look it up), rather lets take a look at what opportunities are available to this team, and how the Nationals are looking to the minor league affiliates to fill the gap.

My mind is a little bit in the minor leagues this week, as I spend a vacation in Syracuse, NY with family, and a great opportunity to check on our Little Nats.   TheChiefs win on Tuesday night gave them 5 in a row, and while it was a nice display of offense from Seth Bynum, 11 homeruns on the season, it is the pitching at the AAA level that has most in the organization interested.  Here is a recap of what some of the former big league guys, and big league hopefuls have done this year as we enter Wednesday night's contest with the Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees.

Relievers:

• Tyler Clippard.  Long-rumored to be called up, Clippard is 4-1 on the season with a 0.92 ERA in 24 relief appearances spanning 39.2 innings.  Clippard, a former Yankee starter, has been brilliant as a reliever (in all shapes and sizes) this year as he has spent the entire season in Syracuse.  Clippard offers the most hope for the parent club, as he has been groomed as a reliever, has tasted success as a reliever, and has had big league experience
• Garret Mock - While Mock is a longshot to impact the parent club favorable this year (his last stint was deplorable), the execs have to be watching with glee as Mock fired a complete game 3 hitter with 10 K's on Monday night.  Mock, known to be a tough, bull-dog type competitior, showed a ton of grit in that performance, and that bodes well for his future as a spot-starter or long-relief.
• Horacio Ramirez - a cast off with big league experience, Ramirez could be lightning in a bottle for Washington.  He has appeared twice in AAA, with a 1.50 ERA.  I am not sure on his Inherited runners-scored, but hope to be scouting Ramirez a little more when I watch Thursday,

Starters:

• JD Martin - a Hendo favorite, and why not??  Martin is 8-2 as a starter with a 2.31 ERA and a .914 WHIP.  Martin does not project to help the immediate relief portion of the team, but is a prime candidate for any call up should Detwiler, Martis, Zimmermann, or Stammen falter.  Also, with the focus on limiting innings, Martin is almost guaranteed a callup in late August, September to spell the prized rookies.
• Colin Ballester - once a prized prospect in the system, Balester has struggled at the top echelon of the organization, but has seemed to hit a little bit of a groove this season.  While an immediate callup seems out of the question (like Martin) he should be on that list of pitchers who get called up as a starter later in the summer.

      

1-10 is awful. Downright awful.  One would think with numbers like that, this team would be failing at all levels of performance.  However, a look inside the numbers reveals something a tad scary:

• An average of 4.9 runs a game, with the team scoring 5 runs or more in 6 of 11 games, and failing to record more than 2 runs only once.
• A team batting average that is 7th in the NL, and an OBP in the top 5.

Here is where it gets a little dicey:

• Starting pitching has a record of 1-6 (meaning that relievers have accounted for 5 decisions, more on that below)
• Starting pitching has an ERA of 6.31, tied for second to last in the NL
• Starting pitching has gone 55.2 innings, or roughly 5 innings per game, good for last place
• Teams are hitting .288 against them, only better than one team (Philly, .337).

And if that were bad, here is where it gets REALLY bad:

• Relievers are 0-5 in 11 games.  Think about that, this means as bad as the starting pitching has been (and its been bad), the team has been IN THE GAME when the relievers are pitching!!
• In 41 innings of work, the bullpen has given up 32 runs, 30 of them earned.

While the bullpen's numbers are not as bad as the press clippings would have you believe--as a unit, they are not the last across the board in the NL, if that is any consoliation--the Nationals have always relied HEAVILY on their bullpen.  The stats for the Nationals starting pitching is atrocious, but we did go into the season with basically 2 rookies, a headcase, a shaky #1, and Olsen so we knew they were not going to be hitting 7 innings a night.  So as a result, this team requires the bullpen to be the pen of 2005 and 2006, and it has not been anywhere close to that.

This team's biggest struggles the last two years has been starting pitching and offense, and with the addition of Dunn and Willingham and the emergence of Dukes, it looked like a new team, and the nunbers show that offense is not a problem (or as big of a problem).  Starting pitching will struggle, but the building blocks are there for them to turn it around.  In short, the bullpen has to be the team's ballast and give the players the confidence they need to grind through this season. 

The team's record should be 5-6, think about that.