Earlier this season, after discussing Manny's experience with the New York Metropolitans, I wrote:

I honestly think Manny could be a terrific manager for a veteran team.  A team that's more like...the Mets!  That's where Manny picked up these habits of letting veteran players do whatever they feel is best to prepare for game days.  After all, who's gonna question Carlos Delgado or Pedro Martinez?  But when you have young players, it's simply essential to take a heavier hand and run a tighter ship.

I still basically feel the same way.  Manny just never quite got control of this team, and left to control themselves, they...didn't.  There are times when a firing is not necessarily due to a manager's "fault", in the per se sense of that term, but more because of the manager having lost the team in some vague but comprehensive way.  Manny lost this team some time ago.

To fire him now says one thing: he didn't pan out for the Austin Kearns and Adam Dunns of the team, but we have to prevent the Craig Stammens and Jordan Zimmermans from being impacted in quite the same way.  Getting someone new in there allows the team to grow in a different and better direction.

Ultimately, I think we'll look back on this decision in five years and think, "The team was lackadaisical, inconsistent, and uninspired on Manny's watch.  But now things are better.

Focus on that last part.  When we look back...things will be better.

      

1,458.

It’s the approximate number of innings in a baseball season, assuming 162 games that last 9 innings apiece. It won’t quite bear out, due to extra inning marathons and rain shortened affairs, but let’s call it a working number.

Now let’s look at how many innings the Nats can expect from their starters. No one pitched more than 182 last year (Lannan, Redding). Odalis gave them nearly 160 and Bergmann provided almost 140, although he only made 22 starts (the first three started 30 times or more). Balester and Hill collected 147 1/3, with Chico, Martis, Mock, Clippard, and O’Connor combining for 129. So all the starters together pitched around 760 innings. And yes, they needed ELEVEN people to reach that paltry sum.

What about this year? It sure looks like Jordan and Shairon will be part of the rotation. Their performances, combined with the club’s collective lack of desirable alternatives, leave the team little choice. But Martis is a newly minted 22 year old and Zimmerman is just a shade older. So using the Rule of 30 or some approximate variation, Z would get 136 innings and Martis 124.

(Some observers base these inning calculations on last year’s major league innings only, while others factor in all innings thrown last season, regardless of level. Thus, it’s hard for me to peg the most reasonable number. Perhaps some of our readers got better grades in four years of high school math than I did and can shed more light on the subject.)

Now let’s say the other three starters are able to average 190 innings apiece, since Olsen eats around 200 innings but Cabrera and Lannan are closer to 180. That’s approximately 830 innings from starters. (I’m ruling out Hill because... well, how can you rule in Hill?)

That’s a nice improvement from last year’s 760-ish innings, isn’t it? Granted, the best teams’ rotations combine for even more innings, such as the Phillies’ 876.1 from last year’s five leading men. 

What’s the fallout from all this? If my calculations hold, the Nats will take a meaningful leap toward fewer mediocre call-up starters and a better, more rested bullpen. Combined with a more potent offense, maybe an 80 win season isn’t so far flung after all.