I knew it was too good to be true.  Stephen Strasburg, #1 pick, the most anticipated debut since baseball returned to DC.  In recent memory, the only other debut that game close was Ryan Zimmerman's call-up in 2005.

Of course, someone had to go and ruin Strasmas.  And I don't mean Ian's wonderful article did it - no, that blame rest solely at two doorsteps - Verizon and MASN.

My name is Mike, and I'm a Verizon FiOS subscriber.  The service has been generally awesome, allowing me to post blogs and do research (not to mention play Xbox) at lightning fast speeds.  The TV signal is great, and I get a ton of channels that I didn't back in the dark ages of Alexandria, VA and Comcast.  I'm not alone, most of my neighborhood in Silver Spring are FiOS users - I can tell by the like-named wireless networks.

The channel we don't get, the one I'm most upset about?  MASN2**.  Sure, I can watch the hell out of the Orioles, but we might as well re-name MASN to MASN/Orioles, and MASN2 to MASN/Nats, since I'm generally blacked out of Nats games.  Sure, you can say it's because I'm a Maryland resident, but if you drive through the city, it's 11 miles from my doorstep to Nationals Park.  It's nearly 3 times closer than Camden Yards is to my front yard (32 miles).  Regardless, the fact that Verizon and MASN have not been able to work out a deal to bring MASN2 onto FiOS is inexcusable.

The moral of the story?  I want you to enjoy your Strasmas, because some of us can't.  We'll be dependent on ESPN's Baseball Tonight crew and the MLB network folks for live look-ins.  Beyond that, it's yet another sign of the inherent Orioles bias at MASN, with one of the more populous counties in the area (and one of the most wealthy counties in the country) blocked from their local game and forced to watch the Orioles.

*As a side note, I know MASN claims it's not their fault, but I also know it would not have been very difficult at all for them to move a game that's become a national sports story (reporters from nearly every major east coast paper are here, plus nearly every big baseball writer in the country) to MASN instead of MASN2 for tonight.  It's not like this debut was announced yesterday.

**I've been told, since posting this, that FiOS subscribers can get MASN2 in standard def by tuning to Channel 1.  This is apparently posted somewhere on MASN's hard to navigate website, but not on the on-screen FiOS channel guide, nor in the FiOS online guide on Verizon's site.   

      

 The 2010 MLB Draft begins June 7th at 7pm and the Washington Nationals, again holders of the 1st overall pick, are expected to go big, ignore the "character concerns", and select Bryce Harper.  This isn't the NFL, however, and one big pick will not a franchise fix.  The Nats have holes (ranked 23rd in MLB according to ESPN's Keith Law), and below we're going to highlight a few of the positions that we feel need the most attention.

In order of need:

• Outfield.  Yes, I'm lumping all three spots together.  Both Nyjer Morgan and Josh Willingham are over 30, and there is no proven RF solution yet.  Prospects Destin Hood and Michael Burgess look decent, but are miles away from helping the MLB club.  After them, the cupboard is fairly bare, filled with mid-20's AAAA types.  Chris Marrero could be an option here, but that depends on a contract extension for Adam Dunn.  Speaking of...


• First Base.   Aside from Marrero (or even with him), this is another spot where the cupboard is really bare.  A contract extension for Dunn can help fill the hole for a few years, but eventually the Nats will need developmental prospects, not just spot-holders like Josh Whitesell and Chris Duncan. 


• Pitching.  A constant need.  Whether it be a promising pitcher falling apart (Colin Balester), a prospect not developing fast enough (anyone seen Jack McGeary outside of Vermont?), or injuries (hello, Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler, Jordan Zimmermann), quality pitching is scarce and fickle.  Even with a Stephen Strasburg on the way and Drew Storen here in DC, they need quality starting and relief arms so the Nats don't have to find a Livan Hernandez to pick up every year.


• Second Base.  Even with the rise of Ian Desmond, middle infield will still be a concern.  Jeff Kobernus, Danny Espinosa, and Stephen Lombardozzi are on the way in some respects, but they may not all pan out and they may not be enough in case of injury.

Before you ask, yes, there are other positions that could be as much of a concern, if not more.  When polled, the NDN staff literally mentioned everything on the field, based on personal preference.  I chose to disregard 3B for Ryan Zimmerman, SS for Desmond, and C for Derek Norris, Jesus Flores, and the aforementioned Bryce Harper.  If the Nats decide to move Harper to either 1B or the OF, I would then replace 2B on my list with Catcher.

Ultimately, Hendo said it best, the keyword for the Nats is power.  They need slugging corner outfielders, a slugging 1B prospect or three, and power pitching.  Apologies to John Lannan, but the Nats have too many soft-tossing control pitchers in both the pen and the starting group, and need a few more flamethrowers.

Disagree?  Comment up below.  

      

 Welcome back to our new regular column here at Nationals Daily News - Stock Up, Stock Down.  Last week we talked about Josh Willingham (who has stayed hot) and Nyjer Morgan (who was demoted from the leadoff spot and promptly responded with one of his best hitting games all season).  Here's hoping this week's entries continue to have better luck than the folks from our inaugural week.

STOCK UP

Adam Dunn - He hit a big 3 run double that started the avalanche yesterday that gave the Nats some semblance of an offense, scoring as many in one inning as they did all series in San Diego.  Over his last 7 games, he's hitting a sweet .387 with 6 runs scored and 6 RBI.  The power isn't there, but the contributions are - as his 6 runs scored show, he's getting on base.

STOCK DOWN

Justin Maxwell - He's getting the Ryan Church treatment, albeit more deservedly.  In my mind, Church at least had his injury liability as a crutch for poor performance.  Maxwell, who went 0-7 with 2 walks and 2 strikeout's over the last week, has no such excuse, and was demoted to AAA to make room for starter J.D. Martin.  When you combine Maxwell's lack of results with Roger Bernadina's* semi-coming out party, we may be seeing the end of J-Max's shots at a permanent spot in a Nats uniform.

Also receiving votes among the NDN staff:  UP - Zimmerman, Guzman, Desmond, Martin, Atilano. DOWN - Morgan, Kennedy, Martin, Bernadina.  Honorable Mention - Syracuse Chiefs Uniforms (thanks, Let Teddy Win) which are universally agreed to be pretty bad.  Again, players only, folks.

* the author is fully aware that Bernadina went 1-15 with 5 K's over the last week, which is why he's a candidate for Stock Down - the sole difference being that Maxwell was also sent down.

      

Welcome back to our new regular column here at Nationals Daily News - Stock Up, Stock Down.  Last week we talked about Scott Olsen (now on the DL) and Brian Bruney (who refused his assignment to the minors and will be a free agent unless the team trades him this week).  Here's hoping this week's entries have better luck.

STOCK UP

Josh Willingham - He hit the walk-off yesterday that gave the Nats a 3-2 home stand and a series win in the battle of the beltways.  He may have also inadvertently cost O's Manager Dave Trembley his job.  More importantly he's on another one of his hot streaks, hitting home runs in two straight games, hitting in 5 of his last 6 games, and posting an OBP of .500 over the past week.

STOCK DOWN

Nyjer Morgan - I was skeptical when NDN colleague Tim Lemke was down on Morgan last week, but after his on-field tantrum Saturday show's that he's frustrated with his performance both on and off the field.  He's only hitting around .260 and has 8 times caught stealing to go with his 8 stolen bases - a 50% average that's not going to cut it.  Though harder to statistically quantify, his defense has been poorer this season as well - something you can see with the naked eye*.  The team has to be hoping that he turns it around to get closer to his performance after arriving in DC last year.

Also receiving votes among the NDN staff:  UP - Guzman, Storen, Bernadina. DOWN - Atilano, Capps.  Honorable Mention - Wil Nieves (who?) for actually getting playing time with Pudge on the DL.

* the author is not ready to fully accept stats like UZR since he still feels that they can be flawed, so defensive performances are judged by the naked eye.  Want to convince me otherwise?  Comment up.

      

Welcome to a new regular column here at Nationals Daily News - Stock Up, Stock Down.  No, it's not an original idea.  Yes, it'll be fun.

STOCK UP

Scott Olsen - He's 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA in 7 games.  He flirted with a no-hitter.  He's got nearly a 3-1 Strikeout to Walk ratio.  Not bad for a guy coming back from labrum surgery in his throwing shoulder.  I think the Nats (and their fans) are hoping this run continues, since Olsen looks like a good, competitive 3-4-5 pitcher that can help them contend.

STOCK DOWN

Brian Bruney - Easy one here - the heralded former Yankee reliever who had a shot for the closer spot was Designated For Assignment following Sunday's loss in Colorado.  He posted a 1-2 record with a ghastly 7.64 ERA.  He only had 3 holds and a .88 K to BB ratio.  He has yet to accept a demotion to AAA Syracuse, and could possibly be traded to a team who still believes in in 8+ K/9 ratio.  Ultimately, though the transaction has Drew Storen moving up to replace him, this move was going to happen no matter who came up from AAA.   

Also receiving votes among the NDN staff:  Rob Dibble.  Players only folks - I'll leave the praise of Dibble to someone else.

      

 Raise your hand if you thought we'd be on the cusp of May and the Nats would be above .500.  Anyone? Anyone?  Bueller?

OK, we likely got a handful, but most of the fans I know and interact with are a little stunned and more than a little giddy that the team on South Capitol street is performing above expectations.  To steal a line from Hendo, it's not something this columnist saw coming - by my own projection, the Nats would be roughly 8-13 or so, a .380 clip, as opposed to the .524 they have currently.

The more amazing fact is how they're getting it done.  Zimmerman is batting .326, but he's been in and out with hamstring injuries.  Adam Dunn is only batting .225.  The team has no true Right Fielder since they ended the Elijah Dukes experiment, but the platoon of Harris, Maxwell, Morse, et al, has gotten it done.

In the end, it comes down to pitching - something that sounds familiar - and the starters have performed above expectations, even with Jason Marquis and Garrett Mock on the DL.  Now, instead of waiting for Strasburg and Storen to ride to the rescue, it looks more like they'll be bolstering units that are already performing well.  Other reinforcements are on the way too - don't forget about Ross Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang.

Ultimately, it may be early to revise a prediction, but if things keep going as they have through the first 21 games, it could prove to be an exciting summer in South East DC.

      

No surprise, right?

Still, it's important to remember that no matter how improved the offense may be (even without a power hitting Right Fielder), it doesn't matter, since you cannot expect to out-mash the other team every day.

I know that John Lannan's line against the Phillies on Opening Day is more about his struggles against that very good lineup as opposed to his overall quality (hat tip to Adam Kilgore at Nationals Journal), but that doesn't disprove anything.  This team will flat-out not turn it around without better pitching, in both the starting five and the pen.

Sure, Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen are on their way, but truly, how much of an effect does that have?  Strasburg might be a number 1 pitcher soon, but that's one of 5 slots.  You could argue that Lannan and Jason Marquis could be considered number 2 pitchers, but they are more likely slotted at 3 and 4 in a good major league rotation.  Until Jordan Zimmerman can come back (and if he's healthy), do the Nats really have a legitimate number 2 pitcher?  Until Strasburg comes, do they have a number 1?

Beyond that very large question, you still have the bullpen looming.  When Lannan left the game it was still only a 4 run game.  Is it likely the Nats could come back against Roy Halladay?  No.  Possible?  Yes.  That is, until you have Miguel Batista give up 5 in 1 2/3 IP.  Say what you want about Jason Bergmann allowing the grand slam (the Nats Twitterverse was... eloquent), but Batista truly let the game get out of hand.  Until the Nats can build a pen without these retreads (Jesse English's performance was a good sign), Storen at the back-end doesn't matter.  You can't close a game if the other bullpen guys give it up before you have a chance to pitch.

Ultimately, is this a reactionary commentary to a bad opening day loss, fueled by boos of the home team by opposing fans trucked in from Philly?  Sure.  But is there a point to this?  Yes.  If the team wants to live up to those projections of a 70+ win season, they need to start pitching better before Strasburg and Storen arrive this summer.  It's up to Marquis tonight.

      

That's the question I find myself asking now that Nats 1st round Rule 5 pick Jamie Hoffmann (traded to the Yankees for Bruney) has been returned to the LA Dodgers.

Bruney has been relatively effective in limited use so far this spring, posting a 3.60 ERA after giving up 2 ER in 5.0 IP.  His .118 BA against looks as good as his 1.00 WHIP, plus the 4 K's that equal a 7.2 K/9.  Ultimately, looking better than Free Agent signee and possible Closer Matt Capps (he of the 10+ ERA and .360 BA against).

That being said, with the release of Elijah Dukes (something that, in theory, had to have been discussed during the off-season, hopefully before the Bruney trade was consumated on December 7th) you have to wonder what if the Nats had kept that 1st round pick and not traded him.  Sure, he only hit .130 in 23 plate appearances, but he's been a valued prospect and LA representatives have gone on record saying they were happy he went to the Yankees because they thought he was likely to return. 

Hopefully Bruney will grab the closer reigns and not let up until Drew Storen pushes him out.  Hoffmann could never regain his bat and be a Super-AAA player for the rest of his career.  I just hope that Nationals don't regret passing on a young, controlable, power hitting OF for a relief pitcher who might not last.

      

With a hat-tip to the Insider Only article from Buster Olney on ESPN, it looks like the Nats have one of the toughest schedules in MLB over the first quarter of the season.

Not only do the Nats play the defending NL champion Phillies six of their first nine games, but they also play 21 of their first 40 on the road.  On top of all that, 31 of their first 40 games (78%) are against teams that finished better than .500 for 2009. 

What does this mean?  Get used to a poor record (like you already aren't) for the first quarter of the season.  I'd say 4-5 after the first nine is in line or slightly optimistic, 3-6 might be more realistic, since six of those nine are ont he road.  Even with a somehwat favorable homestand mid-April (MIL, COL, LAD), they don't play a more mediocre team until they get the Marlins at the end of the month, and even that is on the road.

My prediction?  I'm going to call 16-24 (.400) through this tough first portion of the season.  I truly do think this year's team is better than anything since 2005, but this opening stretch is going to be hard.  I'll cover that more in my annual position-by-position breakdown, but for the time being, don't go prediciting .500 baseball to start the season.

Good thing you won't see Stephen Strasburg until mid-summer.

      

I'm usually one of the more forgiving online commentators, but I'm going to divert from my usual kindly self and echo the call I know others have put out - it's time for Cristian Guzman to go, or at least not be the starting shortstop anymore.

I know, Guzman is only 31.  I know, he had 151 hits last season for a .284 BA, which was 4th best on the team behind Nyjer Morgan, Nick Johnson, and Ryan Zimmerman.

I also know that he's showing diminished range at SS, and that many of his hits were singles.  He only managed to bat in 52 runs, and had the same number of sacrfices (6) as home runs.  In other words, he's average at best, and his impact is statistically inflated by his lack of extra base hits.

There's been a lot of discussion this offseason about a proposed move to 2B, and to let Ian Desmond play SS, but only if the Nats don't sign another 2B, like Adam Kennedy or Orlando Hudson.

It's my opinion that we move on from the Guzman era in DC, and embrace the infielding future.  Let's do both - sign a Hudson or Kennedy, start Desmond at SS, and trade Guzman.  We've got Eric Bruntlett to play utility infielder, so we have some depth in case of injury.

When you look at the numbers (Thanks, Chico/Nats Journal), you see that "Bill James predicts for Hudson this upcoming season: 550 AB, .280 AVG, .353 OBP, .409 SLG, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 96 Ks, 7 SBs."  Hudson looks like a better defending Guzman, right?  "James predicts for Desmond: 518 AB, .282 AVG, .338 OBP, .432 SLG, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 102 Ks, 25 SBs."  Basically a young clone of the above, but with better speed on the basepaths.

Look - the Nats are not going to make the postseason this year.  2010 is all about finding the parts that work and running with them for 2011, while playing better than 2009.  So why are they starting someone who won't be here in 2011?  Sure, you may get more errors out of SS than Guzman (debatable), but same as with Ryan Zimmerman at 3B, you accept a few more errors so that you can get the more spectacular plays and improved range.

Some "contender" (cough, Mets, cough) is going to be looking for a middle infielder this spring, or someone is going to get injured, so why not open up Guzman to the market for a A or AA level prospect?  They should not be looking for the next Derek Jeter or Hanley Ramirez, more like a younger Alberto Gonzalez (who should be a solid bench guy this season).

Make sense to you?  Am I nuts?  Comment up below.