Last year, Derek Norris took the Nationals faithful by storm with some eye-popping numbers from the catcher position that made everyone forget about Jesus Flores.  This year, with Norris' injuries and Wilson Ramos' arrival, the Nats faithful have been exposed to another under the radar prospect who is playing at a blistering pace.  Meet Tyler Moore, first basemen for your Potomac Nationals.

Standing 6 feet 2 and weighing 185 pounds, Moore's physique does not indicate a hitter with Ruthian stats, however his prowess at the plate has had the Nats eye for years.  He was drafted by the Nats in 2005 in the 41st round of the draft and did not sign.  Then he was drafted by the Nats again in 2006 in the 33rd round, and did not sign. Finally he was drafted by the Nats AGAIN in 2008 in the 16th round after a season at Mississippi State where he lead the team in homeruns

Moore has continued that trend in the minors.  In 116 games at Potomac this year, Moore has put up the following line:

• 28 homeruns
• 102 RBI
• .552 slugging percentage
• 4 player of the week awards in a 6 week span
• Since July 15, a span of 37 games: 18 HR, 55 RBI, 39 runs, 17 doubles, .424/.475./.931 for an OPS of 1.406
  

As Byron Kerr states, maybe its time we add Moore's name to the list of high profile prospects. Kerr is not off base, as Moore does not seem to be a flash in the pan player.  While his 2010 power numbers are insanely gaudy, his 2009 season was very productive with contact rates similar to 2010.  In 111 games, Moore racked up 125 hits, 87 RBI and a .297 batting average. His 30 doubles to 9 homeruns suggest the power he had showed in college would develop when he was more comfortable with professional pitching.

Moore's rise in 2010 must have the front office buzzing, as Moore has played all his 2010 games at first base.  With Adam Dunn's impending free agency looming, and Chris Marrero playing well, but not showing as much power as scouts hoped, Moore's power surge gives the Nats options down the line.

Moore has moved up one class per year, and despite his massive outburst this year, the team has not moved him to AA, suggesting that he still requires seasoning that puts him a couple years away from a shot.  Nats fans should also be cautious, as the gap between A ball and MLB ball is massive, and a lot can happen during those developmental years, just check in on the minor league stats of Angels bust, Brandon Wood.

While imploring caution however, Nats fans should take stock in the fact the farm system is producing multiple options at positions as Rizzo's overhaul has given much needed depth, and allowed players to develop.  Moore's recent success is another feather in the cap of a very good, very committed scouting/player development team.

      

ESPN's Insider Access published an article today talking about players with the best shots to hit 600 HR and the eventual 763.  While Adam Dunn was not talked about in the 700 club, this article finally gave the Big Donkey his due in terms of his homerun prowess and his march towards history.

At the age of 31, Adam Dunn sits at HR #347, and has averaged 40 HR per 162 games.  The article states that Adam Dunn has a 45% chance of hitting 600 homeruns for his career. Yes, that seems do-able, but there are a lot of obstacles in his weigh, oh I am sorry, freudian slip, in his WAY. 

At 6 foot 6 and nearly 290 pounds, Dunn will be able to hit the ball a country mile given that he does not strike out and that he can get himself on the field in his mid-to-late 30's.  This concern for the stat prognosticators is no doubt the same concerns Mike Rizzo has when thinking of whether or not to give the Big Donkey the extension he is pining for.

Yes, Dunn has a shot at 600 HR, but I don't think he will make it.  Then again, I never thought Jim Thome would still be playing meaningful baseball at his age but he continues to, as well.  Dunn's outside shot of 600 mirrors Thome exactly.

At the age of 31, in his last year in Cleveland, Jim Thome had 334 homeruns before Cleveland let him walk as a free agent (sound familiar).  Thome signed with the Phillies and spent the next two seasons launching balls a country mile, hitting 89 homeruns in two full seasons, and even leading the league in dingers his first year in Philly. In 2005, Thome was shipped off to make room for Ryan Howard and ended up with the White Sox. While I thought this was the end of Thome's career at age 34, he played 529 games with the White Sox, rocketing a total of 134 homeruns.  As a free agent, Thome signed with the Twins for 2010 and has jacked 17 in 2010, giving him 581 for his career.

The point of all this is that Thome was able to extend his career and his shot at 600 by moving over to the more forgiving AL to be a DH.  As Dunn weighs his options in 2010, he may want his shot at 600 and realize that the best way to do that is moving to the AL, donning pinstripes, and pining for that short porch as a permanent DH. 

      

It is official. Harper is signed. Sigh of relief, right? Harper is sure to be an impact player in this league, and as team officials say, a cornerstone, but limiting your excitement to the signing of Harper alone is missing the major accomplishments the Nationals have achieved in the draft over the last handful of years.

While teams in the past spent their resources on free agents, many teams like the Nationals now are investing big money in draft picks and player development.  While big budget teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers are still competitive, lower-revenue teams like the Rays and Marlins have made runs, while mid-level conservative teams, like the Twins, Braves and Phillies have built strong, young, competitive teams as a model to follow.

Looking at the Nationals youth movement over the past few years, there are a handful of players who have either reached the majors or on the precipice. The list below takes a look at the players who have made it to the show, while also looking at what players from the 2009 draft and 2010 draft have accomplished.  Also included is 2010 propsect trades:

• Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
• Jordan Zimmermann, SP
• John Lannan, SP
• Craig Stammen, SP/RP
• Ross Detwiler, SP
• Ian Desmond, SS
• Roger Bernadina, OF
• Danny Espinosa, SS/2B

• Wilson Ramos – C (#58 overall prospect, acquired for Matt Capps, RAKING at AAA)
• Tanner Roark - SP (young pitcher acquired for Christian Guzman)
• Ryan Tatusko - SP (young pitcher acquired for Christian Guzman)
• Bryce Harper – RF*
• Sammy Solis – SP*
• AJ Cole – SP*
• Rick Hague – SS (.306 BA in 21 games @ Hagerstown)
• David Freitas – C (.327 BA and .905 OPS in 45 games in Vermont)
• Randolph Oduber – OF (.376 BA, 1.050 OPS in 30 games in Vermont)
• 7 position players playing in Vermont

• Stephen Strasburg – SP (5-3 with 2.97 ERA and 12.2 K/9 in 11 starts; 7-1 with 1.30 ERA and 10.6 K/9 in minors)
• Drew Storen – CP (36 games, 2 saves, 3-2, 2.61 ERA; 41 games, 28 finished, 2-1, 15 saves, 1.68 ERA in minors)
• Daniel Rosenbaum – SP (8-7, 2.19 ERA in 30 starts).
• Justin Bloxom – RF (.309 BA, 11 HR, 70 RBI @ Hagerstown)
• Jeffrey Kobernus – 2B (.279 BA, 21 SB’s @ Hagerstown)
• Trevor Holder and AJ Morris – pitching at A ball with sub 4.00 ERA. 

The Nationals system has already produced some solid homegrown talent that has allowed them to play competitively in 2010 for the first time in a few years. With the emergence of the 2009 and 2010 class, the Nationals core talent could look like this compared to these dominant teams of the past few years:

• Nationals (Zimmerman, Strasburg, Harper, Zimmermann, Desmond, Espinosa, Storen, Ramos)
• Yankees – (Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Hughes, Chamberlain, Gardner, Cano)
• Phillies – (Howard, Utley, Hamels, Rollins)
• Rays – (Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Shields, Price)
• Twins –(Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn)
• Braves - (Heyward, Hanson, Medlen, McCann)

Where the Nationals need to be careful is an over reliance on the youth movement.  All of the teams listed here have balanced their young players with solid, if not spectaculuar free agents and crafty veterans.  Players like Adam Dunn or a Carl Crawford fit the bill nicely, and with the Nationals spending wisely on prospects, they have cash left over to fill in the gaps with free agents, rather than fill the team with free agents.  The next few years should be interesting.

      

The frenzy around this year's draft is extremely minor compared to the hoopla that surrounded Strasburg last year, and there are a handful of reasons why that may be the case; however this article is going to tackle Bryce Harper the baseball player and what his signing will mean to the Nationals as they move forward in rebuilding this team.

The comparables are all there.  Take the #1 picks who were position players and track their careers - Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Jr., Darryl Strawberry, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez - these players who possess power nearly always deliver.  The players who do not deliver are the toolsy players who project as freak athletes (Phil Nevin, Darrin Erstad, Shawn Abner, potentially Tim Beckham). So, Harper has some good people to follow in how his career will play out.

While Harper's potential is through the roof, and his one year of college ball was excellent, he still needs some seasoning.  Harper will not turn 20 until the end of the 2012 season, but I could see him being a September call up to end the 2012 season, priming him for a full run at 2013 right field.  With a plus/plus bat at this stage already, Harper could be like Marlin rookie Mike Stanton and get a call up to showcase his power.

It is difficult to gauge who will be on the team with Harper in 2013, as many question marks abound regarding Willingham, Dunn, Morgan however the nucleus of Zimmerman, Desmond, Espinosa and Ramos sounds promising as does the emergence of Roger Bernadina and the prospect of Chris Marrero.  If the Nationals do not re-sign Dunn, they will at least explore some power hitting option at first base, which is critical to Harper's development.

When Harper arrives, he cannot be penciled in as the #4 hitter. He needs the time develop the mental side to handle the pressure of cleanup, and would be best suited in the #5 or #6 role initially.  A player like Josh Willingham has done well in the #5 role as he is in an OBP machine, and someone like Harper could thrive in the #6 role hitting behind a patient hitter with runners in scoring position. 

Even in his rookie year, Harper could be productive to the tune of .270, 20 HR, 75-85 RBI if given the RBI opportunities.  If that seems high, remember that at press time, Ian Desmond's line (as a #6, #7, and #2 hitter) is .266 with 9 HR and 49 RBI for a guy with limited pop. 

Harper will have a fantastic impact on this team in his first full season with the team, but if he does get the Mike Stanton call up special in 2012 as a 19 year old, then be prepared for some 480 foot blasts and a .240 average as he will have to adjust to the bigs. 

      

Many prognosticators viewed the 2010 season as one where the Nationals would begin to “turn it around.” With the arrival of Strasburg and the signings of Pudge, Jason Marquis, and Adam Kennedy, may felt the Nationals added the requisite veteran presence that this team needed. Yes, there were still question marks ahead, as there is with any team, but many felt that this could be the start of something.

At 49-63, the Nationals are not in contention and have suffered through some rough outings, but many around the league will tell you that this team is more competitive this year. Sure, Strasburg’s 5-2 record and overall demeanor gives the team a solid #1; Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham have turned into a legit 3-4-5; and Livan Hernandez’s trip to the Fountain of Youth has stabilized a rotation wracked by injuries; however, the biggest change from 2009 to 2010 has been the play of the bullpen, and their ability to keep the Nationals competitive.

In 2009, the bullpen was called upon to shoulder a heavy load, pitching 36.7% of all the innings played. In 2010, with a young staff and many emergency spot-starts (JD Martin, Luis Atilano) that percentage has been roughly the same, as this staff has handled 36.3% of the innings. Seeing that utilization, or rather over-utilization, was not what doomed last year’s ‘pen, let’s take a look at some of the glaring differences between the two years:

When looking at the reasons for the change, one has to look at the personnel and their new roles in 2010. While Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett were utilized in 2009, it is more fitting to compare them as closely as possible with their contemporaries from last year’s bullpen, Jason Bergmann and Ron Villone. Villone and Bergmann lead the Nationals in pitching appearances in 2009, just as Clipp and Burnett lead this year, and both represent a righty/lefty combination. When comparing closers, this analysis will go with the two who left the team mid-way through in Matt Capps vs. Joel Hanrahan. While Hanrahan lost his place as a closer, his statistics were emblematic of the problem in 2009.

Tyler Clippard vs. Jason Bergmann

  Sean Burnett vs. Ron Villone

  Matt Capps vs. Joel Hanrahan

The Nationals' bullpen in 2010 has shown greater levels of efficiency by leaps and bounds over 2009, with the most utilized pitchers cutting down siginifantly on the number of baserunners allowed per inning. With a young team that struggles defensively, the Nationals cannot give competitive teams extra base-runners at the end of games. In 2009, the bullpen consistently gave competitive teams extra chances, and as the numbers indicate, the trio of pitchers in 2009 did not have the stuff to put these hitters away. 

The 2010 bullpen, though not perfect, has shown they have better pitches, better control, and can shoulder the load of a young staff that cannot work deep into innings. This bears out not only in the numbers above, but in the Nationals record against the NL East (20-19). As the starting rotation gets stronger into 2011, the Nationals bullpen can now be counted on to be a stronger anchor moving forward. 

      

In discussing the prospect of Danny Espinosa being a part of the Nationals infield in the near future, many readers echoed a sentiment that has been gaining a lot of traction lately: Move Ian Desmond off of shortstop.  This issue is not a new one, as Espinosa is an accomplished short stop in his own right, and may push Des off the position due to his own prowess.  However, Desmond's error rates have not helped his cause.

Currently, Desmond has more errors at shortstop than any other NL SS with 26, and his .941 fielding percentage is also the worst.  Desmond has also made some questionable plays that do not show up in the error column but are bad judgment plays (anyone remember the double steal mishap against the Braves?).In determining Desmond's proficiency at shortstop, I turned to the guru's at Fangraphs to define the terms that they use to assess defensive value and efficiency:

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

ErrR (error runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR), which looks at how often the player converts the out on balls inside of a pre-determined zone for his position

UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.

Here is how some notable shortstops rank in those areas in 2010:

Desmond’s range factors and revised range indicates he is by no means the worst defensive shortstop, even among a handful of players who have been All-Stars at their position due to their offensive prowess. Desmond has good range at the position, not yet at the elite of Furcal and Alexei Ramirez, but not near the nadir of Jeter and Hanley Ramirez.  Desmond’s fault lies in his error rate, which causes his other peripherals to nosedive. While Jeter may have bad range, he is smart in that he knows his limits and does not put his team at risk. Desmond, as a rookie, needs to learn the smart play versus the athletic play. If Desmond cannot keep his error rates down, a position change may be in the works. 

It is not unheard of for Desmond to move to second base in favor of Espinosa when the time is right, as Espinosa has cut his error rate down from 23 in A ball to 15 in AA. While he too will have some growing pains, I agree with the readers who feel he may be the more natural SS.  

Either way, Desmond’s bat and his athletic ability do play in the majors. He has been a good contributor on offense, and his energy has been a good spark for this team. A move to second base at age 24/25 would allow him to maximize his range, limit his throwing errors by being closer to the first base bag and highlight his offense in a position with limited pop.

      

At this time last year, we would have laughed at the thought of Ian Desmond as the everyday shortstop, but 100 games into his rookie season, Desmond has shown that he can play, despite some rookie struggles.  Is it also the time to check in on 23 year old prospect Danny Espinosa?

Espinosa struggled at the beginning of the season with his average, but after a three homer game against Binghamton, Espinosa is hitting .262 with 18 HR and 54 RBI out of the middle infield position. To be sitting at .262 at this stage has shown that Espinosa has been playing at a torrid pace for the last few months.   With Guzman traded and Kennedy not long for the position, the time is right for Espinosa to test out the middle infield position.

The debate will range as to who plays short between Desmond and Espinosa--Espinosa, a short stop at short stop University (Long Beach State, home of Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby and Evan Longoria) has better range at the position, but Desmond has a cannon for an arm.  The Nats should take the final month of the season to see what Espinosa can do and who is better suited at each position.

What are your thoughts?

      

Fans across the DC area were ecstatic as Adam Dunn's services were retained for at least the next few months.  While the faithful stood on their feet and cheered loudly at Nationals park, the constituency of GM's and executives around the baseball were equally as loud in their criticism of Rizzo and Co.  Jealously? Frustration? Maybe, but some feel that the Nationals really botched this one, and they may have a case.

Case Against Rizzo

I used this space for days to plead with the Rizzo to keep Adam Dunn, and not sell his services on the cheap, so you may be confused as to why I lead off with the "Case Against Rizzo" and the move he did not make this trade deadline.  It is very simple, if Dunn is not signed to an extension, we kind of got screwed.

With every big name team telling Dunn that they coveted him, and yes, many would play him at first base, Adam Dunn and his agent got some excellent reconnaissance on the market for his services this offseason when he is totally free and clear.  It is no secret that Dunn wants a 4 year, $60 million deal that would take him until he is 35 years old, and he wants to do that in the NL, if possible. With the information that he is still valued in his pocket, the Nationals have to be realizing that a hometown discount is not likely, and the chances of signing that extension in the next few weeks may be slim.

If Dunn walks, it will be worse than Soriano leaving, who many felt (and accurately so) that he was a talent on the decline and that he was not worth the massive contract he received.  The two draft picks, though nice to a rebuilding team, will not match the vacancy left by Dunn's departure.

The Case for Rizzo

Value for Value.  Production for Production.  I loved hearing those words from Mike Rizzo because I think that is what the fans hoped for from their GM.  Now, it is time to finish the job, and I think Rizzo intends to.  Yes, Dunn, learned a lot about his value and saw many teams covet him, but here is what the executives are not saying about each one of those teams: Dunn's value was tied to his current contract and his talents.  In the end of a $10MM a year contract, Dunn was a cheap option for team's in a win now mode who do not normally spend a lot of money (Rays, Giants).  In the offseason, when he is not bound by a contract, Dunn will not seem as appealing to those teams.

The teams that normally do drive value in the free agent market (Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies) have no need for Dunn (or have other needs that take precedent), meaning his services will be offered to the White Sox, Angels, Giants, and other teams that cannot offered the upper echelon contracts.  This is where the Nationals do have an advantage. They can afford Dunn, and they can prove their worth each day for the rest of the season by putting the future of the team out there (Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Drew Storen) to show that competitive play is not far away.

* * *

Well, It was a crazy couple of days, but in the end, it is good to have the deadline over, for us fans and for Adam Dunn.  With Dunn unlikely to clear the crazy waiver process, we can focus on baseball and getting the team in the right place for 2011.

      

Twitter reports from Tim Brown state that Edwin Jackson has been traded to the White Sox for Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg and everyone wants to know if a flip to DC is next.

• I like Edwin Jackson, but as Keith Law states, I would rather have Daniel Hudson than Jackson, who at a young age, is controllable for awhile and projects as the same #3 type starter. 
• Cannot imagine Hudson moving from Arizona since they covet young, MLB ready pitching and just got that in return. 
• With the addition of Ramos, the Nationals have gotten younger in a key position and removed the need for a catcher that the White Sox were offering.  What now? Dunn for pitching? Dunn for 1b? Yankees and Rays have better prospects and would love to see Jesus Montero in DC or Wade Davis from Tampa instead of Jackson as well.
• On Dunn's desires for a four year deal and the Nats' concern, I think it is valid to be scared by Dunn's mobility at 1B at age 33 or 34 of that deal.

Oddsmakers:

• Dunn flipped for Jackson: Odds: 3-1.  Deals at the deadline are tough and take a lot of wrangling to make happen, and with time running out, this has had the tires kicked the most.  Not the deal I want, but the deal I think will happen.
• Dunn to the Yankees: Odds: 5-1.  You know those people who want the shiny toy when someone else wants it....yeah, exactly.  Dunn is a luxury, but one they will go to lengths to obtain if the Rays are in on Dunn, and the Rays are in on Dunn...
• Dunn to the Rays: Odds: 7-1.  The Rays are not known to be in the rental business, but man Dunn could help that team.  With a young core that is the envy of every young club, including ours, Dunn may find the similar joy he has in DC with Tampa.  Plus, he has best shot of re-signing there since they will lose Pena in the offseason.  Ironically, the reasons it makese sense in Tampa are why the Yankees odds are better.
• Dunn stays in DC: 15-1.  Not looking good.  Have a bad vibe about it given the stickiness of the contract and the ability for teams to pony up and make something happen. Hell, even bringing in 26 year old Edwin Jackson as a starting pitcher is better than letting Dunn walk for picks realistically, so any option should be good if staying is dead in the water.

I do like Dunn here.  I ask the question again, who hits 30+ HR if he leaves?

      

Mike Rizzo has just pulled a coup and in doing so, has upped the ante for Adam Dunn, trading the Nationals' lone All-Star, Matt Capps, to the Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos, late Thursday night. The 22-year-old Ramos, a top catcher who has been packaged in nearly every major trade attempt this season and was ranked #2 in the Twins organization by Baseball America. He immediately gives the Nats an MLB-ready catching prospect to build around. 

The Nationals also get minor-league left-handed reliever Joe Testa.

In trading Capps, the youth movement continues, as one would think this means Storen will replace Capps as the closer... at least in the closer-by-committee role in 2010 to assess his readiness. 

Now, let's see what other ace Rizzo has up his sleeve. This is a MAJOR coup for the Nats tonight. Kudos.