Twitter reports from Tim Brown state that Edwin Jackson has been traded to the White Sox for Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg and everyone wants to know if a flip to DC is next.

• I like Edwin Jackson, but as Keith Law states, I would rather have Daniel Hudson than Jackson, who at a young age, is controllable for awhile and projects as the same #3 type starter. 
• Cannot imagine Hudson moving from Arizona since they covet young, MLB ready pitching and just got that in return. 
• With the addition of Ramos, the Nationals have gotten younger in a key position and removed the need for a catcher that the White Sox were offering.  What now? Dunn for pitching? Dunn for 1b? Yankees and Rays have better prospects and would love to see Jesus Montero in DC or Wade Davis from Tampa instead of Jackson as well.
• On Dunn's desires for a four year deal and the Nats' concern, I think it is valid to be scared by Dunn's mobility at 1B at age 33 or 34 of that deal.

Oddsmakers:

• Dunn flipped for Jackson: Odds: 3-1.  Deals at the deadline are tough and take a lot of wrangling to make happen, and with time running out, this has had the tires kicked the most.  Not the deal I want, but the deal I think will happen.
• Dunn to the Yankees: Odds: 5-1.  You know those people who want the shiny toy when someone else wants it....yeah, exactly.  Dunn is a luxury, but one they will go to lengths to obtain if the Rays are in on Dunn, and the Rays are in on Dunn...
• Dunn to the Rays: Odds: 7-1.  The Rays are not known to be in the rental business, but man Dunn could help that team.  With a young core that is the envy of every young club, including ours, Dunn may find the similar joy he has in DC with Tampa.  Plus, he has best shot of re-signing there since they will lose Pena in the offseason.  Ironically, the reasons it makese sense in Tampa are why the Yankees odds are better.
• Dunn stays in DC: 15-1.  Not looking good.  Have a bad vibe about it given the stickiness of the contract and the ability for teams to pony up and make something happen. Hell, even bringing in 26 year old Edwin Jackson as a starting pitcher is better than letting Dunn walk for picks realistically, so any option should be good if staying is dead in the water.

I do like Dunn here.  I ask the question again, who hits 30+ HR if he leaves?

      

Mike Rizzo has just pulled a coup and in doing so, has upped the ante for Adam Dunn, trading the Nationals' lone All-Star, Matt Capps, to the Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos, late Thursday night. The 22-year-old Ramos, a top catcher who has been packaged in nearly every major trade attempt this season and was ranked #2 in the Twins organization by Baseball America. He immediately gives the Nats an MLB-ready catching prospect to build around. 

The Nationals also get minor-league left-handed reliever Joe Testa.

In trading Capps, the youth movement continues, as one would think this means Storen will replace Capps as the closer... at least in the closer-by-committee role in 2010 to assess his readiness. 

Now, let's see what other ace Rizzo has up his sleeve. This is a MAJOR coup for the Nats tonight. Kudos.

      

On Sunday, I tackled the rumors of Adam Dunn to the White Sox and in the last 48 hours, nothing has moved past the speculation stage.  Rumors abound about potential three team trades, and conversations, so let's recap what we are hearing:

• Monday, rumors were rampant about a three team swap that saw Dunn going to Chicago WS, with the White Sox sending prospects to the D-Backs and the D-Backs sending Edwin Jackson to the Nationals.  It is no secret that Rizzo covets Jackson, but that seems like a steep price for the Nats.
• Tim Kurkijan at ESPN reports he is hearing the likelihood of Dunn being traded increasing. While he offers no specifics, that must mean that the contract negotiations are not going well.
• Ed Price at Fanhouse said more teams in the NL West are talking about Dunn

Will have more when I hear it, but Dunn's name is one of the biggest fish out there after Oswalt.  With all the publicity, the Nats may be able to get a haul for Dunn, but all this publicity should also remind them that DUNN IS GOOD AND PEOPLE VALUE HIM!!!!! (Sorry, had to get that off my chest).

Also, we will keep our ear to the ground on Capps, Willingham and Guzman.

UPDATED:  No recent movement on Dunn, but word is coming back that progress has not been made on an extension.  With only 4 days remaining and Dunn's value increasing by the day, both sides may not want to get a deal done.  Why? With a mediocre market by skyrocketing expectations, it could be a boon season for selling GM's.

The Yankees dangled uber hitting prospect Jesus Montero (First Baseman/Catcher) for Joakim Soria (who said no).  If the Nats offer the Yankees Montero and a pitching prospect for Dunn, Rizzo HAS to make that deal as Montero is in AA and could be in the bigs starting next year.  With time getting shorter, Rizzo may be getting the deal he covets that is right for the Nationals.  Look for him to possibly spin Yankee pitchers to the D-Backs to get Jackson too.

      

As the July 31st deadline nears, the Nationals find themselves as one of the lead stories in MLB with the interest peaking in a number of players, but none more so than first baseman Adam Dunn.  As we have talked about here on NDN, Dunn has played well this year and is on track for another 40 homerun season.  Dunn's skill set is one highly sought by all teams, but none more so than those in tight playoff battles, case in point the Tigers and the White Sox.  Here are some updates and some thoughts on Adam Dunn going into this week:

• Buster Olney has reported that if the Nationals and Dunn's people will try and finalize the extension in the next few days, and if not, then wil try and trade him.
• Dunn is reportedly looking for a four year deal, but Nats brass are concerned about how healthy his body will be in Year 3 of that deal
• The White Sox are jonesing for a big bat, and Dunn has to be easier to move than Fielder this close to the deadline.  Rizzo has insisted that any deal from the Sox needs to bring back MLB talent like Gordon Beckham or Carlos Quenting, and one has to wonder if it will also include pitching prospect Daniel Hudson and/or first basemen Dayan Viciendo.
• The Tigers will be without Magglio Ordonez for 6-8 weeks and have jumped into the Dunn race, but GM Dave Dombrowsk does not want to trade top prospects for a rental player.
• With the Angels acquisition of Dan Haren, they would have to deplete a large portion of their farm to acquire Dunn, and they could be skeptical to that at this point.  Though they lost Morales, the Angels have been less linked to Dunn as the weeks have dragged on.
• MLB.com's Bill Ladson spoke with Mike Rizzo who sounded very Rizzo-like, meaning he is adamant he is not calling anyone about players, but he is answering his phone when they call him.  It sounds like Rizzo does not want to do these deals and will only do it if significantly improves this club.  It also sounds like Rizzo does not want to be in the situation that Cleveland found themselves after trading Sabathia and Lee; meaning they got prospects and not MLB-ready talent. 
• Tracee Hamilton from WAPO throws her hat in the ring (and this writer likes her take) and says keep Dunn in DC!

This story is definitely fluid, and there will be many updates this week as we hear more about Dunn's future and the Nats plans for the trade deadline, so keep checing back and following us on Twitter.

      

We have spent some time at NDN talking about the value of Adam Dunn, his improved defense, and the fact that his skill set is something that costs most teams about $100M. So why has he not been extended, why is he the constant talk of trade rumors, and why is the proposed value (4 yr $48M suggestion from Buster Olney) so low? 

On one hand, you have the career of Dunn, often viewed as a power hitter with little value elsewhere. A strikeout machine and long thought a wooden fielder, Dunn has always been tagged with that label of “not really a winner.” Those viewpoints are harsh, fanned by inflammatory comments by a certain former General Manager, and not steeped in any statistical basis.  

On the other hand, you have the challenge that faces Mike Rizzo and the Nationals. A player like Dunn at the mid-season can net you some Blue Chip prospects—like Angels phenom Mike Trout—which can help turn around your franchise. The Nationals offense has sputtered due to some inability to get the job done at specific positions (Morgan, Guzman, Desmond). Is it wise to move one piece to potentially solidify two other positions?

I don’t envy Mike Rizzo. I think Dunn is a player that needs to be re-signed to a 4 year deal (take Dunn till he is 35), and lock up the #4 spot in the lineup as well as the clubhouse.  Dunn's perceived lack of defense (I say perceived as his first base skills have improved) and high K rates have kept him out of the upper echelon of contracts for power hitting first basemen (Fielder, Howard, Teixeira), yet his production is on par.   This viewpoint keeps his contractual ceiling low, and makes him an easier player to re-sign rather than finding his replacement on the open market.

With young players like Chris Marrero starting to hit, and the potential of Bryce Harper being with this team, the Nationals may not need a ton of help on offense. The emergence of Marrero may mean that Willingham is the Nat to leave, not Dunn.  

The deadline will be a difficult dance this year, as the Nationals have made major strides (at 40-52, the Nationals would have to go 19-51 to equal last year’s record), but still need to improve. Do they try and trade proven talent (Dunn, Willingham) for offense prospect or pitching prospect? Do they trade prospects (Detwiler, Marrero, Espinosa?) to try and lure a proven pitcher like Oswalt or Haren who has another year on their contract? 

What do you think? And where will Adam Dunn be on August 1^st? What about April 1^st of 2011?

      

All-Star week this year was bittersweet for me, as I was still flabergasted by the omission of Ryan Zimmerman.  Despite that frustration, the Washington Nationals organization should be pleased about where they found themselves this week as multiple Nationals and Nats farmhands found themselves making an impact at the All-Star level.

MLB

If you polled MLB managers leading up to the All-Star game, I am not sure if Matt Capps would have registered many votes for a player who would figure into the game's decision.  With a roster loaded with the likes of Ubaldo, Lincecum, and Josh Johnson, I am sure Capps was an afterthought.  When the game's final score was announced though, Matt Capps found himself the winning pitcher of record for the NL's first victory in 13 years.  Granted, he registered only 1 out, a strikeout, but that 1 out got the NL out of the inning.  Great way to grab the headline Capps!

AAA

Chase Lambin earned MVP honors in the AAA All-Star game for the Syracuse Chiefs.  Lambin went 1-3 with a run and an RBI in a close 2-1 win.  Lambin, 31, has been having a great season for the Chiefs as a jack of all trades.

AA

The Harrisburg Senators, the host team, sent 7 All Stars to the AA game, highlighted by top prospects Chris Marrero and Danny Espinosa.  While Marrero and Espinosa are pegged as stars of the future, it was the Nats farm hand pitchers, Tom Millone and Rafael Martin, who played a big role.  Millone, pitching two scoreless innings, started the game but it was Martin who pulled out a relief win.

A

In a pitching duel with no real "National" significance, Michael Burgess went 1-4 with 2 K's.  Not a great showing, but good that he made the All Star team.

All in all, a dominant showing by Nationals players this week in the respective mid-summer classics.  With Nats pitchers earning 2 wins (MLB and AA) and another player earning MVP honors (AAA), I think fans can say that this team is growing the right way.

      

Where do I begin? I have let this choice marinate for a couple of days, and all I can think is that Charlie Manuel has lost his mind.  I think this may be the worst choice ever for an All-Star by a manager.  Think about this--this was not a faux popularity contest like the plan to get Milledge on the All-Star team last year, nor an obligation to a team not represented.   A manager looked at his team and said, "I think Omar Infante is an All-Star".  If you think I am being too harsh, let us look at EVERY statistic possible.

*Infante has a -8.8 in 16 games at SS; -10.9 in 6 games at 2B; and a -7.5 in 21 games at 3B. Infante has a 54 rating in 14 games in the OF, however has only made 9 plays in the OF.

Charlie Manuel has made his usual terse comments, and this is what they amount to:

"We were told you had to have a utility player on your team,” Manuel said. “We went over a bunch of names, and I thought (Infante) was the best one on there. He can play all the infield positions and he can play all the outfield positions. And he’s hitting .300 or so.”

Omar Infante was not chosen to play outfield for this team, so we can ignore his weird 54 UZR/150 rating based on 9 plays in the outfield and we can focus instead on his horrific -8.8 at SS this year.  A rating that is so bad that it is MUCH worse than Ian Desmond's rating of -0.4 and Desmond has 21 errors!!! His defense is sub-standard at the multiple positions he plays, so who cares how many of them he plays? Its not like Willie Harris deserves to be on this team because he can enter the game at any position.  Zimmerman, the best defensive third basemen in the NL, could hold down 3B obviously, and if needed could play SS in an exhibition game considering he did it in the minors.   If you needed an infield utility player, pick Zimm who is deserving of an All-Star game over Infante.

Zimmerman again leads all 3B's in UZR/150 rating and is second only to David Wright in all of MLB in WAR rating for 3B.  His inclusion in the All Star game should have been a given not a gimmick.  Zimmerman and Votto give Manuel, by every measure of the game including that of the eyeball test, the best chance to win in an All Star game, and the selection of Omar Infante is downright criminal.

Right the wrong.  Vote Zimmerman!

      

For the first time since 2005, the Nationals have an opportunity to buyers at the trade deadline.  Despite a horrific month of June, and play that often times has been ulgy, the Nats still see themselves as potential contenders.  With the Phillies facing 8 weeks without Chase Utely and the Mets and Braves exceeding expectations, the time could be right for the Nationals to make a splash and get back in this thing. 

While the Nationals offense had sputtered over the last couple of weeks, the glaring need is pitching, and in the Nationals case, a #2 or #3 starter they can control for a couple of years to pair with a Strasburg/Zimmermann top of the rotation.  Rumors have flown about Edwin Jackson, given Rizzo's ties to Arizona.  While the parlor game of who the Nats would target is fun, the bigger question is, "Who would they give up?"

After spending years building the farm system, the Nationals would not want to take MLB or near MLB-ready players away to have to rebuild, so where in the system do they have talented players, playing well, and not far off for a team looking to re-tool?

Pitching - any trade for a pitcher will require a pitcher, and the conundrum is if the Nats had an MLB-ready arm, they would use it.  So who fits the bill of someone that a team may take in return?

• Ross Detwiler - the #6 pick in the draft has looked good in his rehab from injury and represents the biggest name the Nats could give up.  At 24, he is young enough to be on a team for a number of years, and his audition at the MLB level was not horrible when you look at his peripherals over his record.  His recovery from injury this year has gone well
• Brad Meyers - Meyers is dealing with injury as well, but his name gets thrown around a lot.  He has pitched very effectively in A and AA, and at 24 may be ready to take off.
• J.D. Martin - Martin has pitched decently well in the bigs, but at 27, may be too old for a team to take a look at.  Could be thrown in for a bigger offensive talent.
• *WILD CARD* - John Lannan?  Lannan has been demoted, and many feel he will be back soon, but the Nats are in an okay spot without him.  Given he has made 30 starts the last two years and is still young, an MLB team may view him as someone to build a trade around.

Batting - with a solid lineup and the potential of Bryce Harper moving through the minors at outfield, the Nats may have some options to move some bigger names in their system who may be blocked in the future.

• Chris Marrero - the Nats first pick in 2006, Marrero is starting to hit his stride in AA.  With 11 HR, 40 RBI and a .293 average, Marrero is starting to post numbers closer to expectations.  His .802 OPS is a tad low, but power is coming and that should be able to go up soon.  Projects as a corner outfielder or first baseman. Most likey offensive player to build around
• Michael Burgess, 21 - typical Bowden pick, Burgess had power and horrible plate discipline, causing him to have to re-learn his approach.  This process has stunted his rise, but in his third season at A ball, Burgess has improved.  His power numbers are down, as his batting average, but his strikeouts are down from past years and his OBP is nearly .100 points higher than his average.  Would still be a developmental prospect, but one with upside.
• Danny Espinosa, 23 - the Long Beach State infielder is penciled in as the second basemen of the future, however he must be studying Desmond's rise to fame, as he is hitting only .244 this year.  Espinosa plays solid defense and the team likes how he profiles to their infield, but one must wonder whether he can be pushed by other infielders in the system.  Would have to be paired witha  bigger pitcher like Detwiler to lure a big free agent.

Odds of Nats being buyers? I see the Nats buying AND selling.  Possibly moving a Matt Capps to bring in prospects while also selling off prospects to bring in a pitcher or some defense seems likely.  With some players struggling (Nyjer Morgan) and others performing very well (Drew Storen, Roger Bernadina, Mike Morse), the Nats are in a good position to make multiple moves.

Other odds? Dunn signs an extension. 

      

Nationals Daily News columnist Mike Henderson lays out some good reasons why Stephen Strasburg should be in All Star in 2010, however, I am here (on June 24th) to say I do not think he should be in the summer classic. The major reason has nothing to do with Strasburg and is driven by the sheer dominance of pitching this year in the National League.

Issue #1: NL Pitching is Dominant

In 2009, the NL Squad had 14 pitchers from 13 teams, with 8 starters and 5 relievers. Using that as a template, let's try and pick the pitchers in the NL for 2010.

In 2010, there are 25 pitchers in the NL with at least 13 starts and an ERA under 3.50.  There are 6 with ERAs under 2.50 and 14+ starts, and there are three with ERA's under 2.00 and 14+ starts.  There are two rookies with 14 starts each and ERAs under 3.00 (Jaime Garcia 1.74, Mike Leake 2.92). 

If Strasburg were not in the equation, the NL All Star rotation would be: Jimenez (13-1), Josh Johnson (1.79 ERA), Halladay (2.43 ERA. 5 complete games), Lincecum (8-2, 2.86 ERA, 113 K's), Matt Cain (2.16 ERA), Yovani Gallardo (2.59 ERA, 103 K's), Tim Hudson (2.54 ERA), Jaime Garcia (1.74 ERA), Wainwright (10-4, 2.23), Chris Carpenter (9-1, 2.63 ERA), and Mike Pelfrey (9-2, 2.69 ERA).

That list includes 11 starters, 3 more than last year.  So to make room for Strasburg, and to keep the starters close to last year, which 4 should not be there?

Issue #2: This is a 2010 Team, Not a Future Performance Team

Is Mike Pelfrey as good as he is pitching right now? Probably not, but he has made 15 starts and sports a 9-2 record with a 2.69 ERA and has performed.  He deserves a spot on the All-Star team.  Strasburg's only blemish is that he was not up here earlier, but the fact remains, he has made 4 starts as of June 24th, and will probably only make 6 starts before the All-Star Game.

Strasburg's performance thus far has been amazing, and while I am writing saying he should not be in the game, the reason is he should not be at the expense of others.  His performances alone are worthy of the debate, and his humble attitude make him a perfect All-Star role model for kids.  However, his time will come more than once, and for some of these young pitchers enjoying great seasons, they may not get that chance ever again to be an All-Star.

      

Good work to everyone for breaking the John Lannan demotion and providing some snap analysis as to the decision to send him to Harrisburg.  Now that John has been sent down to tweak, greater questions are raised about his replacement and what will it take for John to get back to being a reliable starter in the majors.

When Lannan was sent down, and Joel Peralta, a reliever, was called up, may were left asking, "Who is the 5th starter?" As Adam Kilgore reports, the Nats will go with four starters most likely until June 29th, but at that point will need a 5th starter. So who are the likely candidates?

Craig Stammen: I think this is the most likely scenario.  Stammen, who struggled this year and even had a struggle in his first AAA start, flat out dominated in his last game as a Chief.  While some disagree about his future, and Riggleman is unsure about his role on the staff, Stammen makes the most sense to give this team innings. Odds: Even

Matt Chico: Remember Chico? 30+ starts and opening day starter battling back from injury.  Very quietly, Chico has made 13 starts this year and kept his ERA under 4.00.  While he would be a sympathetic pick, I think the team would like to monitor his progress back from injury first and see how he responds going deeper into games at the minor league level first. Odds: 20-1

Shairon Martis: Another blast from the past.  Martis was the Atilano of 2009, and then poof, he was gone.  Martis should be called the Keyser Soze of the Nats pitching staff for that vanishing trick.  After being sent down last year, he imploded and was on no one's radar coming into 2010.  Martis has handled himself well, making 13 starts at the AAA level, going 4-5 with 4.09 ERA.  His WHIP is still absurdly high (1.417) and scarily enough, consistent with his other years (1.431 in 3 AAA seasons).  Odds: 25-1

Some other names are out there, but all come with either injury baggage (Chuck James, Odds: 75-1) or not enough experience (Erik Arnesen, Odds: 50-1) to warrant a promotion to the big leagues.

Another reason for Stammen getting the nod is the fact that he may slide into a long reliever's role later this season.  Remember, John Lannan is not injured and his performance the last few years (back-to-back sub 4.00 ERA seasons and 30+ starts) warrant another chance at the rotation. With Stammen's promotion, the club can assess who is better suited to start and who is better suited for long relief. 

Another wrinkle is the hoofbeats of the cavalry, otherwise known as the staff coming off of injury.  With Ross Detwiler pitching at AA and looking great, Jordan Zimmermann recovering at an absurd pace, Jason Marquis set to pitch in August, and Chien-Ming Wang reportedly still being alive, the Nats have some options in the rotation for late July early August. 

With four pitchers coming back from injury, a legit ace in Strasburg, a crafty veteran in Livo, the presumptive promotion of Craig Stammen, and some nice performances by Atilano and Martin, the notion of Lannan sliding into his old spot is not a given.  John will have to work extremely hard to prove that he was not a stop-gap solution starter for this team and that he is part of their future.  Just like Rick Porcello of the Tigers being sent to AAA and Cliff Lee doing the same a couple of years ago, let's hope that this bump in the road energizes Lannan and the Nats are the better for it.