With the trades involving Matt Caps and Cristian Guzman, the direction of the Nats is becoming a bit more clear.

Conclusion 1 -- The club does not see Jesus Flores as the long-term catcher

Conclusion 2 -- The revolving door approach at 2B has proved to be a disaster

When he joined the Nats in 2007, Flores surprised a number of people.  Rather than being a typical Rule 5 draftee to be hidden on the bench, Flores rather quickly supplanted Brian Schneider as the Nats starting catcher.  He impressed with the glove, arm and bat.  But he couldn't shake ongoing injuries that have left him inactive for more than a year now.  The Nats' conclusion:  it's time to move on.  See Jeff's blog to find out more about Pudge's likely successor, Wilson Ramos. 

As for Guzman, whose contract expires at the end of the season, it had become clear that the Nats were not likely to keep him for 2011.  In press interviews Friday, Mike Rizzo was especially critical of the Nats' poor defensive play, an implicit criticism of Guzman.  But poor defense at 2B (12 errors so far this year) also might have resulted from players being shuttled in and out, without the ability to gain any consistency.  Same could be said about batting.  

After all, is Adam Kennedy really as bad as we have seen so far this year?  Well, we're about to find out, with Kennedy likely getting more consistent playing time.  He certainly made a statement in Friday's game, going 4-5 at the plate (ok, one of the hits obviously was a sacrifice, not a hit) and a clean game in the field.

And then there's Adam Dunn.  One way or another, his future with the Nats will become more clear by 4 PM today.  As Bob Carpenter would say, we'll about to found out in "just a little while."  

      

As reported Friday afternoon by Bill Ladson at MLB.com, the Washington Nationals have dealt middle infielder Cristian Guzman to the Texas Rangers in exchange for right-handed minor-league pitchers Ryan Tatusko and Tanner Roark.

A native of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Guzman, 32, was the only Washington player who had been a member of the team since it began play as the Nationals in 2005 following the franchise's relocation from Montreal.  He was signed by Washington as a free agent to a four-year contract in November 2004, having played the previous seven seasons in the Minnesota Twins organization.

Guzman is in the second and final year of a $16 million contract extension agreed to during the 2008 season.  He is likely to become Texas' everyday second baseman at least until the return of Ian Kinsler, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list Thursday with a strained left groin.

Tatusko, 25, was selected by Texas in the 18th round of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft.  He has pitched during 2010 at the Rangers' double-A Texas League affiliate in Frisco, Texas, where he accrued a 9-2 record and 2.97 earned run average.  Over 13 starts and 11 relief appearances for Frisco, Tatusko gave up 94 hits and 40 bases on balls while striking out 58 batters in 100 innings of work.

Roark, 23, was the Rangers' 25th-round selection in the June 2008 draft.  During 2010, he made 17 starts and five relief appearances for Frisco, winning 10 games and losing 5 on a 4.20 ERA.  He struck out 75 batters in 105 innings while allowing 113 hits and 33 walks.

The trade will not become official until Saturday, according to Mark Zuckerman at Nats Insider and CSN Washington.  Buster Olney at ESPN tweets that, as a condition of the trade, the Nationals will assume about $2 million of the $2.87 million in salary remaining on Guzman's contract.

      

Twitter reports from Tim Brown state that Edwin Jackson has been traded to the White Sox for Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg and everyone wants to know if a flip to DC is next.

• I like Edwin Jackson, but as Keith Law states, I would rather have Daniel Hudson than Jackson, who at a young age, is controllable for awhile and projects as the same #3 type starter. 
• Cannot imagine Hudson moving from Arizona since they covet young, MLB ready pitching and just got that in return. 
• With the addition of Ramos, the Nationals have gotten younger in a key position and removed the need for a catcher that the White Sox were offering.  What now? Dunn for pitching? Dunn for 1b? Yankees and Rays have better prospects and would love to see Jesus Montero in DC or Wade Davis from Tampa instead of Jackson as well.
• On Dunn's desires for a four year deal and the Nats' concern, I think it is valid to be scared by Dunn's mobility at 1B at age 33 or 34 of that deal.

Oddsmakers:

• Dunn flipped for Jackson: Odds: 3-1.  Deals at the deadline are tough and take a lot of wrangling to make happen, and with time running out, this has had the tires kicked the most.  Not the deal I want, but the deal I think will happen.
• Dunn to the Yankees: Odds: 5-1.  You know those people who want the shiny toy when someone else wants it....yeah, exactly.  Dunn is a luxury, but one they will go to lengths to obtain if the Rays are in on Dunn, and the Rays are in on Dunn...
• Dunn to the Rays: Odds: 7-1.  The Rays are not known to be in the rental business, but man Dunn could help that team.  With a young core that is the envy of every young club, including ours, Dunn may find the similar joy he has in DC with Tampa.  Plus, he has best shot of re-signing there since they will lose Pena in the offseason.  Ironically, the reasons it makese sense in Tampa are why the Yankees odds are better.
• Dunn stays in DC: 15-1.  Not looking good.  Have a bad vibe about it given the stickiness of the contract and the ability for teams to pony up and make something happen. Hell, even bringing in 26 year old Edwin Jackson as a starting pitcher is better than letting Dunn walk for picks realistically, so any option should be good if staying is dead in the water.

I do like Dunn here.  I ask the question again, who hits 30+ HR if he leaves?

      

Mike Rizzo has just pulled a coup and in doing so, has upped the ante for Adam Dunn, trading the Nationals' lone All-Star, Matt Capps, to the Twins for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos, late Thursday night. The 22-year-old Ramos, a top catcher who has been packaged in nearly every major trade attempt this season and was ranked #2 in the Twins organization by Baseball America. He immediately gives the Nats an MLB-ready catching prospect to build around. 

The Nationals also get minor-league left-handed reliever Joe Testa.

In trading Capps, the youth movement continues, as one would think this means Storen will replace Capps as the closer... at least in the closer-by-committee role in 2010 to assess his readiness. 

Now, let's see what other ace Rizzo has up his sleeve. This is a MAJOR coup for the Nats tonight. Kudos.

      

NATIONALS PARK, Washington -- The Washington Nationals announced late Thursday morning that right-handed pitcher Stephen Strasburg would be placed on the 15-day disabled list with right shoulder inflammation, retroactive to July 22.

While the team's announcement was in line with previous statements regarding the nature of Strasburg's ailment, the move presents the Nationals with a decision to make regarding who will take his place in the rotation.  Strasburg was scheduled to start the third and final contest of this weekend's three-game series against visiting Philadelphia on Sunday.

Long reliever Miguel Batista (1-2 win-loss record, 1 save, 4.09 ERA) drew the start on Tuesday when Strasburg reported an inability to get loose during pregame warmups.  Though starting Batista again on Sunday is a possibility, Nationals manager Jim Riggleman indicated to reporters before Thursday's game that a second consecutive start for the veteran right-hander is by no means a foregone conclusion.

"[Batista] could fall right back into that spot," Riggleman said, "but that kind of takes away from what we have in the bullpen to use.  We would have to really have two or three really clean, long games from our starters to allow us to have Batista pitch [Sunday]."

The Nationals' first two starts of the weekend series are scheduled to go to RHP Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50) on Friday and LHP Ross Detwiler (0-1, 0.00) on Saturday.  Philadelphia's probable starters will be LHP J. A. Happ (1-0, 1.76) RHP Roy Oswalt (6-12, 3.42) on Friday, RHP Joe Blanton (4-6, 5.85) on Saturday and LHP Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.48) on Sunday.

      

When bad things happen such as the need to scratch Stephen Strasburg from a scheduled start, the Washington Nationals can remind themselves that they have a flock of pitchers who are on track for an eventual callup from the minors -- be it in a matter of weeks or over a longer time frame.

These include progressing draftees like Tom Milone and Danny Rosenbaum; free-agent pickups like Andrew Kown; once-dependable starter John Lannan; and, most immediately, injury returnees including Matt Chico, Ross Detwiler, Jason Marquis, Scott Olsen and Jordan Zimmermann.

Strasburg's day-to-day status notwithstanding, the injured list is slowly being whittled down.  You'll see Olsen on the mound Thursday afternoon against Atlanta.  And, of course, Detwiler made his first 2010 start this past Sunday.

If you'd asked me last Friday morning which candidate I'd have chosen to promote first from the big list of names above, it probably would've been Milone.  (Unlike the Nats' real bank account, my fantasy checkbook takes no heed of the financial consequences of a blown option if a hastily promoted Milone should later need to be sent back down to the minors.)

For whatever reason, the team decided Sunday was the time to call up hip-surgery survivor Detwiler for a pitch-limited outing on three days' rest.  Regular readers here know I'm a fan of the four-man rotation, but Detwiler wouldn't have been my choice -- and that has little to do with the amount of rest he'd had.

Rather, it's about something I've been noticing since the first couple times I saw the tall, slim left-hander perform as a high-A Potomac National shortly after he was drafted in 2007.

When Detwiler took the hill in the first inning, he'd promptly begin pouring in fastballs with enough life to befuddle the craftiest batter.

However, should said batter have taken a poke at one of Detwiler's offerings, he would occasionally connect and reach base -- and that's where the trouble could begin.  Pitching from the stretch, Detwiler seemed to have an annoying habit of letting the baserunners pile up, followed all too often by tallies on the opponent's side of the scoreboard.

This was something I also noticed when watching Detwiler pitch in the Arizona Fall League in 2008.  Granted, I only saw one Detwiler outing at AFL, so feel free to attribute my impression to confirmation bias.

Another argument for Detwiler advocates is that, in his seven 2010 rehab starts since June 13, his numbers have been remarkably even.

With the bases empty, Detwiler pitched 15²⁄₃ innings, giving up 19 hits and 3 walks while striking out 16.  With men aboard, he pitched 17 innings, allowing 19 hits and 4 walks as against 15 strikeouts.

That's practically the same performance with or without men on base.  And that must be what the Nats are hoping for when Detwiler settles into the MLB rotation.

What they got on Sunday, however, was not that.

On Sunday with the bases empty, Detwiler faced nine batters.  He struck out a pair and gave up a hit and no walks.

With runners on base, Detwiler faced ten batters.  Again, he struck out two, but gave up two hits, walked three, and didn't make it out of the fourth inning.

Granted, Detwiler's middle infield committed two errors behind him -- which is why none of the five runs he was charged with was earned.  But his own wild pitch in the bottom of the first didn't help matters any (and let a run in).

When Detwiler left the mound in the fourth, the opponents' batting line was .111 / .111 / .111 with no runners on base and .286 / .500 / .714 with runners aboard.  That kind of split cannot be anything close to what the Nats have been hoping for.

If, in future appearances, Detwiler can reprise his rehab performance, Sunday's outing will fade into distant memory (and might be written off to his working on short rest).

A couple more starts like Sunday's, though, may well stamp Detwiler's ticket back to the minors -- whereupon Milone, Kown, Lannan or one of the rest can expect to get the call they've been waiting for.

      

With all the should-they-or-shouldn't-they talk, baseball pundits seem to skip over a rather obvious question: if the Nationals trade Adam Dunn, who would replace him at 1B?  The Nats have a lot of gaps -- starting pitching, middle infield defense, long-term catcher, to name a few.  So we can't be sure which needs Mike Rizzo might fill through a prospective Dunn trade.  Which means it might be best to assume that the Nats would backfill Dunn from within the current roster.  And Mike Morse is the most likely candidate.  

He has the power numbers of a 1B: a .619 slugging percentage and a HR every 14 at bats this year.  He has height (6'5") and range that approach Dunn.  And the Nats have been looking for ways to get Morse more playing time.  

The downsides?  Morse has logged just 28 innings at 1B this year and thus might be a defensive project initially.  By removing Morse from his current platoon role in RF, the Nats would be depending on Roger Bernadina to be more consistent with the bat (the glove seems to be coming around).  As a full-time starter, Morse would have to face more right-handed pitching.  And, let's face it, even Morse at his best wouldn't match Dunn's offensive numbers.  

That said, these trade-offs might be acceptable if Adam Dunn is no longer a National after July 31.  With Morse and Bernadina in place as regulars, Rizzo would have plenty of performance to judge whether one or both fit the longer-term plan.  And identifying more of those pieces and plugging oh-so-visible gaps are pretty much what the second half of the season has come down to.  

      

After reporting trouble getting loose during his pregame bullpen warmups, Washington Nationals rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg was scratched from his scheduled start in Tuesday evening's home stand opener against Atlanta.

Here's the explanation from Nats general manager Mike Rizzo, as reported by Ben Goessling at MASNsports.com:

"We're erring on the side of caution," Rizzo said. "I just didn't want him to go out there when he was struggling to get loose in the bullpen pregame."

That might appear to many, this columnist included, as justified caution.

But not everyone took the news well.  Emergency starter Miguel Batista entered the field to scattered boos, many no doubt coming from customers who bought tickets in the certain expectation that Strasburg would start.

Meanwhile, dispassionate ESPN baseball analyst Keith Law has taken the trouble to weigh in via Twitter on the team's decision, not once but twice.

keithlaw Strasburg is getting an x-ray and an MRI ... because he "couldn't get loose" before the game? Gonna sequence his DNA too?

keithlaw In other #Nats news, Tyler Clippard sneezed in the pen and the team had him cryogenically frozen until a cure for sniffles is discovered.

Thank you, sir.

      

On Sunday, I tackled the rumors of Adam Dunn to the White Sox and in the last 48 hours, nothing has moved past the speculation stage.  Rumors abound about potential three team trades, and conversations, so let's recap what we are hearing:

• Monday, rumors were rampant about a three team swap that saw Dunn going to Chicago WS, with the White Sox sending prospects to the D-Backs and the D-Backs sending Edwin Jackson to the Nationals.  It is no secret that Rizzo covets Jackson, but that seems like a steep price for the Nats.
• Tim Kurkijan at ESPN reports he is hearing the likelihood of Dunn being traded increasing. While he offers no specifics, that must mean that the contract negotiations are not going well.
• Ed Price at Fanhouse said more teams in the NL West are talking about Dunn

Will have more when I hear it, but Dunn's name is one of the biggest fish out there after Oswalt.  With all the publicity, the Nats may be able to get a haul for Dunn, but all this publicity should also remind them that DUNN IS GOOD AND PEOPLE VALUE HIM!!!!! (Sorry, had to get that off my chest).

Also, we will keep our ear to the ground on Capps, Willingham and Guzman.

UPDATED:  No recent movement on Dunn, but word is coming back that progress has not been made on an extension.  With only 4 days remaining and Dunn's value increasing by the day, both sides may not want to get a deal done.  Why? With a mediocre market by skyrocketing expectations, it could be a boon season for selling GM's.

The Yankees dangled uber hitting prospect Jesus Montero (First Baseman/Catcher) for Joakim Soria (who said no).  If the Nats offer the Yankees Montero and a pitching prospect for Dunn, Rizzo HAS to make that deal as Montero is in AA and could be in the bigs starting next year.  With time getting shorter, Rizzo may be getting the deal he covets that is right for the Nationals.  Look for him to possibly spin Yankee pitchers to the D-Backs to get Jackson too.

      

A dismal ten-game road trip during which the Washington Nationals could muster only three wins has pretty well scuttled whatever chances the team had at the All-Star break to contend for a berth in the postseason.

Part of that had to do with a disappointing outing for left-hander Ross Detwiler on Sunday as he filled in on three days' rest for injured righty Luis Atilano; we'll be talking more about that later in the week.  Fortunately, Detwiler gets a break during the first series of Washington's upcoming home stand as the Nats face division-leading Atlanta for a three-game set.

The series will feature all-right-handed pitching matchups, starting with rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg (5-2 win-loss record, 2.32 ERA) taking the mound for Washington on Tuesday evening.  He'll be followed on Wednesday evening by veteran Livan Hernandez (7-6, 3.12), who gave up just one run in his complete-game win last Thursday at Cincinnati, followed by Craig Stammen (2-4, 5.50) for the Thursday afternoon contest.

Atlanta's starting pitchers will be Tommy Hanson (8-6, 4.12) on Tuesday evening, ace Tim Hudson (10-5, 2.47) on Wednesday evening and veteran Derek Lowe (10-8, 4.48) on Thursday afternoon.